THE H.B. TRIBUNE MONDAY, MARCH 19, 1928 WORLD POPULATION

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume XVIII, Issue 82, 19 March 1928, Page 4

THE H.B. TRIBUNE MONDAY, MARCH 19, 1928 WORLD POPULATION

IPHE essential problem arises from the fact that the total of world-population is yearly running further and further ahead of world-resources. It is a gigantic problem; and while no man may be able completely to solve it, it may nevertheless be possible to take its dimensions and give a brief review of its implications. As is well known to all students of economics, it was Malthus who first brought the attention of mankind to the possibility and implied dangers of over population.

“The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse,” as the novelist Ibanez styled them, were the determining factors in the mind of Malthus, representing the methods of a beneficent Providence to keep the limits of world-population within safe bounds. The “four horsemen” are war, famine, pestilence and death. But for the ravages of these sinister realities, said Malthus, the world, in a very short period of time, would exhibit the tragic spectacle of hungry multitudes that could not be fed.

Malthusian economy is now largely discredited, but it is significant that more than one, writer of to-day has pointed out the definite trend of modern world-his-tory toward a congestion of popu lation that may, even within a few generations, give rise to the gravest possible difficulties. It is the easiest thing in the world to make a complicated economic question look simple by the use of a simple analogy, but on this question even the false simplicity of analogy need not be called in to assist the understanding. For any kind of intelligence can under-

stand that the world in which we live is limited in size, and limited in resources, and that, if that be so, it is impossible that there should be unlimited possibilities of man’s increase upon the face of the earth if he is to live a full and happy life. Some of the facte recently pointed out will repay a moment or two of study. Coal—and the calculation is based upon a strictly conservative estimate —will be exhausted, at the present rate of consumption, in three hundred years. In ten years, at the present rate, the forests of Canada, one of the greatest sources of the world’s paper, will be used up. In this latter regard — and it is true not only of Canada but of other countries where afforestation is lagging behind—it is questionable now, whether even the maximum of replacement can meet the ever-increasing rate of world-consumption. For men, in this regard, are not “like trees walking.” Even if one tree is planted for every one cut down, the growing increase of population would leave the problem still to be met.

Out of the soil, again, we are extracting more than we contribute. In the volcanic regions of New Zealand, for example, great rejoicing has been caused by the fact that grass has been made to grow on hitherto unfertile soil by the introduction of artificial manures. But , that is exactly like putting the refuse from one excavation into another that has had to be dug. What goes to these regions in the form of artificial manure cannot go to other overcropped and starving soils in Europe, for the supply of chemical manures is also limited. The problem remains as it was.

So much for the question of natural resources, other examples of the limitation of which will readily occur to the reader. Glance now at the question of the population that is to use these diminishing resources, and 'it will be seen that it is increasing all over the world. Again but a w examples can be given in this limited space. In 1750, America had a mere handful of a few thousands of people. In 1860 she had a population of 31,443,321. To-day, her inhabitants number 117,859,485. So many less in Europe, it might be thought. But it is not so. Thirty-three millions from Europe went to the United States between 1870 and 1920, and yet during the same period the population of Europe has more than doubled, that is, from 214,000 to 475,000. The population! of France is practically stable, this being more due to a greater death-rate than to a lesser birth-rate. Germany, Holland, Norway and England, it is conjectured, are gradually settling down to stability. It would seem to be the eastern European and the Asiatic races that are increasing steadily in proportion, generation by generation.

The foregoing is a broad and general outline of the problem, the full solution of which is definitely beyond our present knowledgeBut it may be pointed out that such scares as the “yellow peril,” so generally harboured by the Nordic races, need not cause undue alarm. For in human society, it is not mere weight of numbers alone that determines racial superiority. One may think of Rome in her degenerate days and of how the barbarian hordes of the Goths, Vandals and Huns swept away and trampled underfoot the ipight and glory of her Empire. But the real canker was in the heart of the Roman Empire itself, which had degenerated by luxurious living and a too easy grip of the reins of government. The history of the British Empire, on the other hand, is a glorious example of the power of the cultured and organised few over the mere multitudes of the other peoples of the earth, t The problem of over population is un doubtedly great and infinitely complex, but it is worthy of belief that the growing knowledge of worldconditions, the increasing communications of world-service, and the progressive conquests of scientific achievement will bring to light the way out- In any case, so far as the Empire is concerned, we can with confidence rely upon the power of enterprise and the depth of understanding that have hitherto seen us through difficulties that loomed as great, and echo our own Shakespeare when he said, “Naught can make us rue, If England to herself do rest but true.”