THE H.B. TRIBUNE. THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 1922. A TANGLED SKEIN.

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume XII, Issue 239, 21 September 1922, Page 4

THE H.B. TRIBUNE. THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 1922. A TANGLED SKEIN.

The news that is coming through to us by cable with regard to the Near Eastern crisis is of such a tangled and often contradictory nature as to make it quite impossible to arrive at any really confident conclusion as to whether matters are trending towards peace or war. A great deal of it is obviously based on mere rumour and surmise, some has necessarily to be suspected as embodying attempts at “intelligent anticipations” by enterprising correspondents'anxious to be “first in,” while that of ostensible Greek or Turkish origin may at once be taken as largely invention and thoroughly unreliable. The first, and probably the most important point on which we are, up to the moment of writing, left in serious doubt is as to the attitude which the French Government has actually adopted or has in contemplation with reference to the defence of the neutral zone on the Asiatic side of the Straits and the Sea of Marmora. Although we have had an abundance of reports on this subject, there has as yet nothing reached us indicating an official declaration by the French authorities. Movements of French troops in this region have been variously interpreted as an intention to withdraw altogether from it, “with a view to avoiding any danger of an armed clash with the Turks,” and, again, as mere readjustment of the combined Allied forces with a view to making the most of the admittedly slender aggregate of troops that is available. At latest, a “high French authority” is quoted as saying that, “if Kemal sets a foot in the neutral zone, it will not be tolerated.” Of Italy it would seem as if we must accept as authentic the definite announcement said to have been made that she intends to take no part in any military action. This, of course, makes France’s decision only of the more serious import, so that we must await dependable news about it with considerable anxiety. The declaration which the British Government has made of a firm determination to maintain the integrity of the whole neutral zone, “even if we have to do it alone,” is one from which no thought of retirement can be entertained without further serious prejudice to British prestige, not only in the region in immediate dispute, but throughout the whole of Islam. Possibly even during the day, we may have word of the result of Lord Curzon’s visit to Paris, from which it is doubtless hoped that some united AngloFrench policy will be evolved. If the reports with reference to Frensh intentions are distracting in their variety, those with regard to the intimations from the Turkish side are at least equally so. In the first place, we have been told that Mustapha Kemal himself has “given an undertaking to respect the neutral zone” pending negotiations for a final peace. Then, another, and qualified, version given is that he has undertaken not to infringe on any part of the zone occu pied ““since the Armistice” by Allied troops other than Greek. What this may mean it is, of course, difficult to say without knowing what part, if any, of the Asiatic zone has been under Greek surveillance. Possibly this may apply to some vital part of the zone, so that the specific reservation would destroy the whole value of the general

undertaking. In any event, while France—if we are to accept the reports reaching us —would seem to be prepared to accept the bare promise of the Turkish Nationalist leader, Britain asks for something in the nature of substantial “guarantees ’ for its observance. Then, this morning—on the authority of an American newspaper correspondent —we have Ferid Bey, the presumably responsible representative in Paris of the Kemalist Government, declaring that the Turks intend to occupy Chanak, well within the Asiatic neutral zone, practically commanding the Narrows, and at present in the occupation of an all too meagre British force. He goes further, and states that the Turks will not, to any extent at all, recognise the neutral zone on the Asiatic side, and that if the British wish to provoke trouble they have only to attempt the military holding of it. He adds, very portentously that “if blood is shed, it will be Britain’s fault,” and that “if a conflagration starts it will be very dangerous and may be fatal to the British Empire.” This, of course, is but part the game of bounce, thought to be justified by recent military and political developments, but, at the same time, it has a quite sufficient substratum of truth and of serious suggestion to occasion grave uneasiness as to what may happen elsewhere. This morning’s report from the Greek Legation in Washington of a definite treaty between Russia, Germany, and Turkey professes to be based upon a sight of the Treaty itself. The Greco-American source of this report is, of course, quite sufficient to induce a heavy discount of chances of authenticity. On the other hand, it indicates a combination which circumstances make only too probable of formation sooner or later, though at present Germany would scarcely be likely to make any announcement of it.. Furthermore, Turkey, anxious to preserve the French good will, of which she has had more than one intimation, is riot likely to flaunt a German alii a-nee in the face of France, though doubtless ready to take with both hands favours of one kind and another from each. As for Soviet Russia, there need be no second thought as to her desire to assist in any way possible towards the humiliation of Britain and the undermining of her influence in the world. From her the Turks may implicitly depend upon receiving every possible support, both covert and overt. Trotsky is reported to-day as having said that the present is a favourable opportunity to demonstrate the readiness of the Red Army, an army whose maintenance is being appreciably assisted by getting outside nations to provide food for the Russian civil population. However grateful the starving people themselves may be for this relief, one thing is quite certain that it is a subject of much sardonic mirth with the Bolshevik leaders. Thus, altogether, the highly complicated situation cannot but be regarded with extreme disquiet, and, while we may hope for a peaceful solution, it is as well to be prepared for sinister developments requiring prompt and forceful action.