THE H.B. TRIBUNE. FRIDAY, JULY 6, 1917. THE SUBMARINE MENACE.

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume VII, Issue 217, 6 July 1917, Page 4

THE H.B. TRIBUNE. FRIDAY, JULY 6, 1917. THE SUBMARINE MENACE.

The record of last week’s British merchantman victims of German submarines published to-day is, so far as mere numbers go, a very decided improvement, from our point of view, upon the tally of any one of the three or four preceding weeks, and, indeed, closely approximates the minimum weekly loss since tine new campaign of under-water frightfulness began in February last. From this we are entitled to draw some comfort, which will be increased if succeeding reports, do not disclose that this relative failure on the part of his U boats has not stimulated the enemy to fresh ana more successful efforts. It, ,of course, militates against forming any conclusion as to the real value of our weekly losses that the Admiralty, no doubt for reasons appearing good to it, does not give us any imormation as to the aggregate tonnage represented by the number of ships sunk. It is, or course, quite within the, region ot possibility, although unlikely, that the fifteen ships over 1600 tons sunk last week showed a combined tonnage greater even than the forty sunk in the week ending 22nd April last —the maximum bag so far as numbers go. Indeed, Captain Bathurst, some few weeks back, said that the Germans were showing some apparent discrimination in the way of selecting the larger boats. If it came to a matter of being able to pick and choose this is no doubt the policy which they would follow in each instance. But we may reasonably conclude that all is fish that comes to the submarine net, and that probably one of the main considerations of the submarine commander is the amount of risk incurred in delivering the attack, and that he may rather be inclined to show a preference for the slower cargo tramps offering a safe and easy target. Another feature m these returns to which attention has been drawn with a view to reassurance is the increase in the weekly number of arrivals and departures during the later weeks of the campaign as compared with the earlier weeks. A glance at the table we publish to-day in another column will show how marked this is. But the pessimist points out that this may easily be accounted for by the fact that the Government has taken complete control of the Empire s .hipping, and that a fair conclusion is that ships are being withdrawn from waters east of the Mediter-1 ranean and that a concentration is i being made on the shorter Atlantic routes. Assuming the correctness of this surmise, which is supported by 1 our own experience out here in the ] Pacific, it will be seen that the quicker passages might mean fewer ships actually engaged, although the • numbers of arrivals and departures. is greater. But against this it may be contended that a greater number | of arrivals and departures must ne- i cessarily mean that .vessels in a greater number are in the danger zone at one time, and that the, sub- • marines are thus provided with a ( bigger multiplicity of. targets.,After; all, the chief thing is to maintain the average number and volume of cargoes and, of course now America has come in. of men also, landed in . Europe, ana as long as this object i is achieved there need be no great i fear of the German submarines I having any real effect upon the conduct of the war and its ultimate result. We have innumerable and persistent rumours of the vast number of U boats that Germany is building, and of under-water leviathans in course of construction that will roam at will over the open oceans ot the world. The next few weeks should either confirm or discredit these stories, for Germany is bound to exert herself to the utmost in order to convince her people thati their confidence in the submarine as a deciding factor in the war is not I ’ ill-founded. Matters on land are not going so well with her and her Allies that she can voluntarily withhold this proof for any great length of time. Von Hindenburg was reported yesterday as having told his armies that, in order to secure a favourable peace, they had merely to hang out until Gennan submarines had starved Britain into suing for terms. In all probability he is quite right.