THE H.B. TRIBUNE. FRIDAY, NOV. 29, 1912. THE OUTLOOK IN CHINA.

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume II, Issue 305, 29 November 1912, Page 4

THE H.B. TRIBUNE. FRIDAY, NOV. 29, 1912. THE OUTLOOK IN CHINA.

The opinions of those apparently best qualified to speak as to the results of the establishment •of Republican government in China are very distinctly contradictory. Dr. Morrison, as the Political Advisei of Yuan-Shi-Kai, the first President, naturally enough adopts a most optimistic tone and professes to see in the overthrow of monarchial ruie the beginning of a new era m which rapid and beneficial developments, national, social and commercial, may be confidently expected. For his chief he has expressed nothing but unbounded admiration, and undei his .guidance opens up a prophetic vista of freedom and consequent consolidation and progress which is distinctly cheering. Dr. Morrison claims for the President the loftiest of patriotic and humanitarian motives. and foretells under Republican government a mental and moral

awakening of the people which must make* for their elevation to a higher place among the nations. He also claims that the drastic change has been achieved with all possible moderation and regard for its opponents, and that we may look forward to an abolition of the corruption which has admittedly been rampant under the imperial regime. We have been accustomed- to regard Dr. M orrison as the best informed and most capable authority on Chinese matters, and even his critics admit that his opportunities for intimately studying internal characteristics and conditions have been unique. There aie those, however, who venture to disagree most, decidedly with his announced conclusions as to the future both m its national and in its international aspects, and also with Ins high appreciation of the personal character cf the President. One wiiter of established repute tells us that Yuan-Shi-Kai. far from being actuated by the high spirit c-f patiiotism. is a time-sei ver and self-seeker who Las attained his present position by the icady abandonment ci expressed convictions and by the exercise of ruthless and cold-blood-ed methods involving much quite unnecessary human shiughiei. It is pointed" out that tho loosely gathered nationalities which had come to constitute the Chinese Empire were iu reality held together bv only one bond, and that was an unbounded reverence for the person of their Emperor, and that quite recently Yuan-Shi-Kai himself gave clear and forcible utterance to the opinion that the welfare of the State was bound up with lhe monarchy. In the deposition of the imperm dynasty is therefore seen by acute observers the removal of the keystone which has hitherto maintained tho unstable structure ol the Empire. Disiuption and dismemberment appear to be the inevitable consequences. The institution of the Republic, instead of marking the birth of a practically new and unitec nation, threatens only to be the death of such union as alreadj exists. Although republican in name it is asserted that the government is practically autocratic anc that the President is in fact a Die tator with only his own persona ambitions to serve. It is even sug gested, and that not hesitatingly, that he aims at founding a dynast} of his own and his previous condem nation of the republican form oi government is adduced as an indi cation of this ultimate intention Previous instances of the crueltie: inflicted and sought to be justifiec: by him in attaining his objects poini to the conclusion that he will nol let trifles stand in his way. The cor ruption whose benefits were, unde; Imperial rule, confined to compara lively few has now, under the pro fessedly democratic system, ti

satisfy the avarice of the many and fresh'and extended causes of dissension must thus arise. So far as the maintenance of the old boundaries of the Empire is concerned we find that already there are unmistakable signs of material change. Deprived of a head recognised by all, more than one of the members have shown indications of revolt from the new domination, and neighbouring Powers we may be sure are not slow to aggravate and take advantage ol the discontent and turmoil for the purposes of their own territorial ag grandisement. -vlanchuria, Mongolia and Thibet, it is pointed out. nevei really belonged to China, but were merely associated with it under the common rule of the Manehu dynastj and consequently recover their for mer status now that the dynasty i: I deposed from power. Russia and Japan will now have opportunity tc take Manchuria and Mongolia under their wings, and Britain has already extended protection to Thibet. The immense body of Chinese popu lation is thus threatened with the i loss cf its most thinly populated ter- [ ritoiy. which, if the predictions arc | fulfilled, will thus be entirely closed ! to the contemplated schemes of ecl I onisation from tire more congestcc ! portions cf the Empire. That the ! fears expressed are not altogethei j groundless our recent cablegram: I with regard to Mongolian revolt afi foixi strong evidence. Altogether w< | may well have grave doubts tha. | De setting up of a nominally demoi ci Vic government, which has behinc jii the support cf no real rational ! sentiment, will go but a short way ! towards settling the difficulties o' i China, and indeed bids fair to con I siderably enhance them.