FORBES AND SALA ON THE PROSPECTS OF PEACE.

Hawke's Bay Herald, Volume XXII, Issue 7719, 16 April 1887, Page 3

FORBES AND SAL A ON THE PROSPECTS OF PEACE.

'XZall Mall ' Gazette.) _;/ :

""'Archibald Forbes, Who is regarded here as the pl'tn'de of war' correspondents; is Very positive that there will be no war. It will ■be remembered that ha married last year in Washington thc.daugMer of General Meggs, and, happy as ho is in his domestic relations, and suffering as he does from rheumatism contracted in the last Russo.- Turkish war,, he .would not probably take the field in case hostilities -should bpgin. Nevertheless, ho is an acute observer; and few men are as well informed as lie as to the. fighting; capacity of any and all the Powers. • "Peace will not' be disturbed ' this spring," he said yesterday when , I called upon. him. "There will be no outbreak between' .Franco' and Germany.;. Indeed, through all this talk of war, Thave never thought it probable." . •■'.; .. .■< ... "Why;" I asked. ■• •.-, ■ • ■ . "Because the French 1 are not going to attack, and Bismarck is sincere in, his professions of peace. If he had not been, , he' would have accepted a three-year army .liill, instead' of insisting to the. lost ex.lremity on the Septennate. If he had • really meant to provoke war immediately, ;, three, years would be ample time in which to crush France and have done" with it. 'You sco, there could not be al ong war. In -truth, there could not well be more' than one .'campaign. More,'. than one would be too. much- for the .financial re-, sources of either country, so terribly expensivo would war' be. now.' 1 Nobody in Germany wants war. They did not want it in ISiO. But it was forced upon them, and they struck back witli terrific impetuosity and effect. It would be tenfold worse "now. The French know it, and 'they have connted the cost, and are going to keep quiet." ■

THE. FRONTIER WKLL-NIGH IJITEEGNAISLK.

"Of course, you are well acquainted, Mr Forbes, with the French and German frontier and. the defences on both sides. If war should occur, what do you think would be the line of action ?" ■ " As I said, France does not mean to attack, and if she did I do not see how she could ever break the German line of fortifications, ■ which is much stronger, now than in 1870, and I believe it would be almost as impossible for the Germans > to break through the French lines, which liavo been greatlystrengthened, youknow. The point .of actual contact between Franco and Germany is quite narrow, and this has been fortified on both sides to the

utmost limit of engineering skill. I think Bismarck's idea would be, not to break throuffh the French lines, but to go around through Belgium and strike France on a frontier that is almost defenceless. I ' am sure he has long been trying to square himself with Belgium, that he might do this with her consent. In fact, lie wanted to have Belgium come into the German Empire and he as much a part of it as Bavaria. His argument was that it would be better for Belgium to have the guarantee of Germany than to be under a sort of protecting a;gis of the Great Powers, which really amonnts to no protection at all. Belgium, however, preferred' to be independent and rejected the advances of Bismarck. Ido not doubt, though, that the German army would march right through her. territory to attack Franco, if she thought it a military necessity." " But would not that involve Germany in a war with England, who was one of the signatories of the Treaty of Paris of 1515,.by which tho neutrality of Belgium was guaranteed ?" "That treaty amounts to nothing. There is not a Power in Europe that would fight to preserve the neutrality of Belgium under that treaty. England would not. England will light for nothing except, possibly, to defend her territory from invasion." "You think she would not resist a Russian occupation of Bulgaria ? " ■'"No,- never." "Nor a 'Russian eccupation of Constantinople?" ". , , ] "No, never." ■ " Do you think that Russia will occupy Bulgaria ? " "If she does it will be with the consent of Germany and Austria." "Then there would be no' war in that case?' 1 . - . • " ; None.".. . .. . Mr Forbes spokewith evident disgnst at the mere mention of any warlike disposition on the part of England, and, while the hero of 1 , more campaigns than any war correspondent living, as will'be seen! he'takesthe most pacilic • view of things all round.

W-iIY SIR SALA THINKS PEACE ASSURED. George Augustus Sala is equally strong in the belief that there will-be .no -war between France and Germany. ' Mr Sala, too, has fame as a war correspondent; Indeed, there is hardly anything 'that he has not written about' copiously- and in'tere'stihgly. /"When I'calleduponhim at i his bigliouse, No. *4G, Mecklenburg-square, 'he walked up and down, the floor of his library and talked to me as, if 'lie were dictating an article :to -• Inn > secretary. "Will there be war?.'- No.;;France-has fluked. The French will. not fight.- They have simmered down to 'a in ost peaceful attitude. When Bismarck said Saigiier. a Wane they were frightened. They, know that he was-in earnest, and they, knew ■what war would mean this/time.- ~Sqig?icr « Mane, bleeding tillyou' are white.- '-. Ah ! wha tan awful potent in those words.'. The French understood their significance, and they shrunk from' tho' .trial; .1 don't say there will not be war between France and Germany some time. Of course, all this arming means war in the end, but hot how. The French will not accept the challenge." ■ • ■ ' -' '■' ■ "Whatpf Russia ?-"....■.., ' -.-,- --" There is greater danger there. I would not be surprised at anything Russia would do. You see, Russia is hopelessly .bankrupt. She has enough money to go to war on, and may take a desperate chance, with the hope that something -would turn up. In case of war, she could make an excuse, if she has none before, ok wringing immense sums from the Church. -No, the only danger of war in Europe is from Russia!" ' LONDON PAI'KItK HOPING VOJI I'ISACK. Mr Forbes belongs to the staff of the News, and Mr Sala to that of "the Telegraph, but notwithstanding their peaceful assurances, I have reason to know that 'not only their journals, lint ''every, morning paper in London 'is .'in w state'of constant ' trepidation at the : proHpeot -' of war. They, all' dread; it' because of I the enormous expenses that war, would entail. The manager • of^one 'of these who declined to ; allow ■ ; mo -. to -use the name, said yesterday: , "It, > f i a great', mistake to'suppose-thattlie principal London journals. want war. NVav means to' them an enorm'ous'expetise, with ' no adequate 'return.' War correspondence lias now come to mean the' sending of a whole staff of men to tho field, with horses and complete outfit, to say nothing of the expense of telegraphing. Advertising is always dull in time of waiVaiid the extra sale of 100,000 papers brings in but a trifle, after all.' Whore a paper is'inst beginning, and when it makes a .lucky stroke in getting early and correct reports of a' great battle, its fortune may bo made, and war thus . prove a hap]).y circumstance, but, where a. paper is already established, war is more of an injury than a bcnclit, and I am sure the proprietors of all tho principal London dailies are praying that the present crisis may be passed in safety."