The Hawke's Bay Herald MONDAY, MARCH 19, 1877.

Hawke's Bay Herald, Volume XX, Issue 3876, 19 March 1877, Page 2

The Hawke's Bay Herald MONDAY, MARCH 19, 1877.

The Suez mail newspapers to hand on Saturday last, which are eight days later than those received by San Francisco, are still mainly occupied with speculations as to the probable outcome of the situation in the East. The 'limes of January 19fch reports that, on the day previous (the 18th), the Constantinople Conference had come to an end. "The Turkish Council of State," it says, "had met. I 'in accordance with a solemn summons to decide on the momentous question whether the terms agreed upon by the representatives of the Powers and presented by them to the Porte should be accepted or rejected.' This dignified body has been enlarged for the occasion by the introduction of a number of eminent personages, among whom are mentioned the Patriarchs of the Chief Christian Churches. The Grand Vizier, who was President of the Council of State until his accession to the highest office in the Empire, addressed the assemblage, complaining of the terms proposed by the Powers as offensive to Turkish independence, and, it would appear, urging 1 the rejection of the whole programme. One of the members present proposed to leave the decision to the Government, but there was a general clamour for immediate and peremptory rejection. The decision of the Council seems to have been final, and thus the Conference of Constantinople has come to an end." This being so, the question of most immediate interest was — What would be the effect of the Porte's decision on the peace of Europe ? The arguments against the probability of war are given as follows : — " Firstly, that the war must be carried on with the whole force of the Empire, since the Turks have a numerous and increasing" army; secondly, that the war, however successful, can Eot produce an} r accession of territory to the Bussian Empire, geographical conditions and the jealousy of Austria forbidding' such conquests." This last position is taken by The Times as absolutely certain, and if it is so, it alters the whole character of the question. The Russian Government cannot, in that case, even if it should proceed to extremities, be regarded as using Sclavonic feeling as a means merely for its own aggrandizement, hut rather as being driven by this agency into a contest which will not in any case aggrandize it. It is manifest from the turn that matters took at the Conference that this theory of Eussian policy is at any rate as near the truth as the contrary oae. Had Eussia been eager merely to find an adequate casus belli against Turkey, and thus to secure the neutrality of Europe she would only have required to adhere to the demands in the first instance presented to the Porte by the joint Plenipotentiaries. Instead of doing this, however, she waived point after point, till the demands, which at first had embraced foreign occupation, were whittled away to the appointment of an International Commission qualified to do pretty much what the consuls of the various powers could do without any commission at all. The Times, writing a day or two before the close of the Conference, remarks — "Not content with varying 1 the form of their demands, the Plenipotentiaries proceeded bit by bit to reduce their substance, until they have now been curtailed within the smallest limits compatible with their possessing any substance at all. It must be owned the spectacle, so far as Europe is concerned, is not heroic. The Plenipotentiaries went out to Constantinople, commanding, as was thought, at once the power and the will to insure submission from a Government which was at their mercy. We now see them almost waiting in the antechamber of the Sublime Porte to know whether such an instalment of their original demands will be granted them as may enable them to withdraw with some dignity from an untenable position." In regard to each point that was conceded, the concession really came, of course, from General Ignatieff. No. other Power but Russia would object to any relaxation of the demands so long as she was satisfied ; and it she was satisfied with something so very much less than that which she originally asked, it certainly did not look like as if she were anxious to find a cause of quarrel. On the other side, however, as The Times says, "there is the fact that the Czar has publicly pledged himself to 'act independently' in case the Powers should be unwilling or unable to bring the Porte to reason. This pledge has never been withdrawn, nor can we find in the acts of the Government any sign that the undertaking 1 heralded by the Emperor's Moscow speech has been abandoned. An immense army has been mobilised, and the movement of troops continues. Great expenses have been incurred and a strong impulse has been given. It may even be that the Government is at this moment anxious to find a j pretext for a retreat and seeks it in vain. However despotic the Sovereign Power, in Eussia may be, there are national opinions and national passions which a Government must respect or fear. In any case, however, it is not to be assumed that the decision, for peace or war, will necessarily be made at once. Perhaps the dissolution of the Conference marks the beginning of a new phase, in which the Western Powers will be for the time inactive, and the three Imperial Courts will once more concern themselves with the business." Nothing that we have learned

of since the above was written, seems to have altered the situation much. Russia appears perfectly alive both to the difficulty and to the almost certain thanklessness of the task which, it seems, may be imposed on her, and she would probably be ready to avail herself of any means by which to avoid undertaking- it. It may not, however, be possible to find any. '[Since the above was in type we have received the cablegrams which appear in another column. Their purport is to confirm the views expressed. Russia, it appears, is not altogether prepared to act independently even against Turkey alone, and has to turn to the other Powers to support her action. The last dates are up to March 14th. Hostilities, at any rate, have not been resumed between Turkey and Servia immediately on the conclusion of the armistice. Indeed, the situation altogether looks more pacific than it has looked for some time past.]