QUEENSLAND ELECTIONS.

Hawera Star, Volume XLV, 7 January 1926, Page 10

QUEENSLAND ELECTIONS.

WILT, LABOUR WIN? TEX YEARS’ RULE MENACED. The* Queensland State elections, which inust he held before the end of June, ore expected to be fixed by the Government for May. Labour has now been in power in the State for ten years, but. at last, the writing would appear to lie on the wall. At no time since 1915 has Labour been so less optimistic, than at present, writes the Brisbane correspondent of the Melbourne Herald. The results of the recent Federal elections have impressed the Labour parliamentarians no less than the outside supporters to the movement with the big swing to Nationalism. The industrial upheavals to whien the State was recently subjected had their effect on the Federal elections, and they are expected to be reflected in the forthcoming .State poll. The State electoral boundaries, following a redistribution of seats before last elections, were fixed to the advantage of Labour, while the practice of undertaking per manent works in certain areas on the eve of an election also greatly enhances Labour’s prospects. Despite these advantages, however, Labour is expected to have the fight of its life in the next ('lection. Metropolitan Prospects. The present position of parties in the Queensland Parliament is: Labour, 4.!; Opposition, 20; majority for Labour, 14. In the metropolitan area there are 17 seats, of which TO are represented bv Labour and seven by Nationalists. If, however, the people in these electorates vote at the next State elections as they did at the recent Federal poll, Labour will be foriimate if it retains four or live of these seats. It would seem from the Federal figures 1 t!v‘ :•••' rt v should hold Brisbane, Fortitude Valiev, Paddington and Buramla. while Ithaca, Kelvin Grove, Bulimba, and South Brisbane are doubtfui. Merthyr and Maree seem to offer every opportunity for the defeat of Labou • since the Nationalist, candidates at tin reci'iil Federal elections had majorities of fiOO and 530 respectively in these a reas.

On the other hand, Labour has litib. prospect of winning any of the seven metropolitan seats held by the Nationalists. In the metropolitan area, therefore, the position could conceiv ably be altered to the following:—Nationalists. IT: Labour, (>. If this came about, Labour’s majority would be reduced to six. The Country Vote. Could the country wipe out this deficit? It is clear that at the recent Federal elections there was a big farming vote for Nationalism. Heretofore Labour has received much support from the man on the land; in faet, so much < 1 ici Mr. Theodore recognise the value of tills vote that at the last State election lie wont to the country on a special agricultural programme. In May next hundreds of these votes should, judging from the Federal election, b<, lost to Labour". If Labour’s majority in the metropolis is reduced as indicated, Nationalism has only to pick up four seats in the country to bring Labour's rule to au end. It is significant that Labour holds practically every electorate where the luting strength is low. Nevertheless, the anti-Labour forces have every dianee of upsetting Labour in the country. At the Federal elections Sir L. Groom had actually a majority of 341 in Toowoomba, which is at present represented in the State Parliament by Labour. Mr. H. Hartley won Fitzroy at the last State election by 2SB, but at the recent Federal election the Nationalist candidate had a lead of 14 in ! he same constituency.

In Ipswich, at the hist State election, Mr. D. Gledon had a majority of 57(i. At the recent Federal election the Nationalist candidate secured a majority of .449 in Ipswich.

If these figures are a reflex of how the' voting in May next might be expected to go, then Labour faces the prospect of defeat. Past experience, however, has shown that too much reli•inee must not bo placed on a comparf son of voting in State elections with tin larger Federal sphere.