The Hawera Star. WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 1925. THE TRADE OUTLOOK.

Hawera Star, Volume XLVIII, 4 February 1925, Page 4

The Hawera Star.

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 1925. THE TRADE OUTLOOK.

Delivered evening by 3 o'clock fn Hawera Manaia. Normanby, Okaiawa. Kltham Mangatoki, Kapongra, Awatunl, Opnnake. Otakeho, Manutabi, Alton, Hurleyville, Patea, Waverley, Whakamara, Ohangat, Merernere, Fraser Road. and Ararat*,

In the post couple of clays statistics covering three phases of national life have been issued from Wellington the overseas trade returns. for last year, immigration figures, and vital statistics. There is nothing very surprising in any of them —there cannot be when we have progress reports month by month or quarter by quarter —but for the most part they make pleasant reading. What clouds there may be have been turned inside out, that tlieir silver linings may bleflid with the general attractiveness of the picture. At the same time the position in some of its details calls for more than casual notice, and here and there a little deep thinking. That we should have again broken our own'record in the direction of low infantile mortality is a matter for congratulation, while the low general death-rate is equally gratifying. On the other hand the birth-rate does not suggest that the vacant spaces of the country will be filled readily by native colonials. Naturally the mind turns then to immigration, and it is heartening to note an increase of approximately twenty-five per cent, over the previous year in the real gain to the non-infant population. But many will read with some misgiving the Statistician’s note on the influx of foreign nationals, particularly from the Southern European countries. The figures which he gives emphasise the rising problem to which we referred in this column last week, then more especially as it concerned Australia. As vet the numbers are not very alarming —447 .Tugo-Slavs, 52 Italians, and 20 Greeks —and many of these people from the warmer countries of Europe make excellent citizens; but some do not. By far the most important of the tables published, however, ar’e those relating to -the Dominion’s trade, and the first cause for rejoicing in that connection is the. evident return to a normal condition. The total volume is the highest in the history of the country save for that swelled by the import boom of 1920, and the balance is back where it should be. But there are one or two points which suggest, that it is not too soon to sound a note ot caution. There was an Increase of roughly a million pounds sterling in the value of our dairy exports last year. Since the year closed blitter —the major item in that export —has slumped sensationally, and the prospects for last year’s total value being maintained are.not. rosy. Certainly in this province the output promises to be greater, and so far as the season has gone it has been greater over the whole Dominion; but already continued dry weather in the South Island dairying districts is being reflected in ' shrinking milk yields, and it is much too early yet to say that the fall in prices will be counter-balanced by any increased quantity of butter and cheese which may be available for export. Then the peak prices obtainfcd at the opening wool sales this season must, be held ns largely responsible for the increased value " of that staple. Those prices have not been maintained to the extent that, some growers hoped, and, in any ease, when the returns for this year come to bo made up, there will be a correspondingly higher entry on the import, side for avoollou cloths and man nfactured goods. Taking these facts into consideration, and without any wish to appear despondent regarding the future, we feel inclined to suggest that the public would be well advised to tighten up its purse-strings a little, this year. The value of our exports drops immediately there :s an easirig tendency on the world’s markets; but the volume of our imports is always several months ahead of us. That is to say, for instance, that the stimulus given to trade by the record wool prices obtained in November will carry over and be noticeable in the import. figures for the March quarter of this year, whereas "the effect of the sudden drop in butter quotations since the New Year will be apparent at ouee from the export returns for January and February. It. is just another instance of the operation of that law which the working man meets when he finds that the v \ * . . cost, of living is quick to rise in sympathy wilhvwa-ges, but much slower in falling when wages are reduced.- And those- few. months by which;, a country’s buying outruns its .selling may make -all the difference" to its trading account in a year which comes in on .peak prices for exports, then falls niynv. Ignoring the most unsatisfactory position in regard to wheat, the Dominion’s imports last year increased in the proportion of only about two to vt.hree with the exports; and, except that motor vehicles, which easily top ,-jtlie list, may represent largely purchases on small deposit, there is no

suggestion in tlic figures of any tin* healthy tone. Nothing resembling a riot of spending can be charged against the (people of New Zealand; nor is there any indication of wasteful indulgence developing this year. But it is as well to look facts in the face, and he is a. wise man who, realising the less favourable outlook for some of our primary products, resolves anew to get twenty shillings’ worth of service for every pound he spends in the next eleven months. Tf that becomes the general attitude there will be nothing to fear.