FROM WEEK TO WEEK

Grey River Argus, 18 December 1940, Page 8

FROM WEEK TO WEEK

By

H. Winston Rhodes

The Mediterranean and the Pacific The recent and rapid deterioration of Italian prestige in the Mediterranean may have far-reaching consequences. Fascism’s ill-managed ano disastrous campaign in Albania has shown, no matter what recovery is made against the weak military er of Greece, that the morale of the Italian troops is not high and their leadership incapable of transforming the boasts of the fascist chiefs into action. If the report is true that tne Dodecanese Islands with their strong Italian bases menacing the eastern Mediterranean and the Suez Canai cannot hold out very long against the British naw, Italy’s hope ol gaining control of the Near East is disappearing at a remarkable speed.

It is too early to estimate the importance of the reverse suffered by the well-prepared Italian army in the Western Desert, but the blow to Italian prestige is one which fascism can ill afford. Furthermore the position of the Italian forces in the east of Africa is becoming daily more desperate surrounded as they are by hostile forces and cut off from all hope of considerable supplies.

To forecast the immediate crumbling of Italy’s political and economic structure would be unwise. It must not be forgotten, that weak as Italy s economic base may be, unpogulai as the present war be to soldier and civilian alike, nonetheless behind Italy is the strength of Nazi Germany. Nor is it probable that Hitler will allow the Italian reserves to continue even if his intervention means that he will be forced to take Italy under his formal “protection.

But neither Hitler nor Mussolini can prevent some of the consequences of the Italian setback in the Mediterranean. The situation in the Pacific is not unrelated to what is happening in the Western Desert and Albania'. The Japanese 'rulers must feel increasingly that Japan is surrounded by hostile powers and that her plan for peace in Asia and a united front against communism is not meeting with the success for which she hoped. The British navy has ieceived no setbacks in the Mediter ranean; American foreign policy is daily stiffening against Japan; Italy’s chances of gaining control of the Suez are receding; Germany has failed even to recognise Japans puppet government in China; America is rumoured to be taking steps to ensure the protection of the Philippines and the Dutch East Indies, and Britain has formed a- separate Far Eastern command.

The Failure of Diplomacy During the past few years Japan has been exceedingly unfortunate in her diplomatic policy. Her mistakes have been many but not completely unrelated to her weak economic base. Her successes have been due to the fact that in the eyes of the imperialists of all countries she stands as the only possible bulwark against the advance of communism in Asia and the strength of the Soviet Union. They have been due also to the desire of monopolistic! interests to obtain a market for war materials in J'apan.

Japanese diplomatic policy has therefore achieved certain limited successes but its failures have been more spectacular. She underestimated the strength of the Soviet Union. She left until too late her invasion of China and in common with many spokesmen and commentators in other countries her rulers were quite unable to understand the strength of China’s resistance. She relited on Nazi Germany to help her against the Soviet Union and was taken com-, pletely by surprise when the BerlinMoscow pact was signed. She learnt the technique of profiting by appeasement after the rest of the world had learnt through bitter experience what the profits of appeasement really were. She withdrew from Nanning in the South of China partly to reduce the length of her defence lines, but also as a gesture in connection with the peace offensive and the inauguration of the puppet government, and as a preliminary to the southward expansion which has been made so much moer dangerous by the resistance of the Chinese and the stiffening ,’of American policy and now by the disasters affecting Italy in the Mediterranean. Australia’s Part Unfortunately Japan can still hope for diplomatic successes because she still remains a bulwark against Communism and the Soviet Union and because there are still interests in the various powers wedded to war-profits and the technique of appeasement. It is significant that in the Dutch East Indies Japan’s emissaries dealt principally with the spokesmen of the oil interests there.

Even closer to home there have been reactionary influences at work. According to a report in the Far Eastern Bulletin for November “Japan was able to organise a very active and successful propaganda campaign in Australia. Leader of this drive was the able J'apanese Consul-Gen-eral in Sydney. The Australian Press and Radio were soon flooded with material favourable to Japan, indicating all the possibilities for Australia of “friendly collaboration” with this “major Pacific power.” Best friends of Japan in Australia were Broken Hill Proprietary Ltd. (largest metallurgical monopoly in the Dominion) and the big wool-brokers, who contrived still to ear-mark a portion of the Australian wool-clip * (nominally reserved (for Britain’s war needs) for Japanese use. It is also well-knowfl that both Australia and Canada support a policy of appeasement towards Japan.

The elections in Australia have altered the situation although at pre-

sent the same figures and the same interests responsible for an appeasement policy are dominant. But the American attitude to the closing of the Burma Road was not without result. The Far Eastern Bulletin reports “Mr Casey has since had talks with the Administration in Washington about naval matters; and Sir designate for J'apan, has indefinitely postponed his departure for Tokyo. American planes ordered for ThailJohn Latham, Australian Ministerand have apparently been diverted to Australia; and there are indications that the question of the possible loan of Australian ports to the U.S. navy (first openly raised in the U.S. Senate Naval Committee a year ago) is now being given immediate practical consideration. Still more significant, perhaps, Australian wool-shipments for Japan have been held up; and it seems that if the United States does indeed enforce an embargo on all war supplies to Japan, the British Pacific Dominions will have no option hut to follow suit.”

Again there are rumours of a reshuffling of Ministers in Japan. The situation is rapidly deteriorating from the point of view of Japanese imperialism. Some commentators m America are openly expressing the opinion that Japan will be forced into war within the next few months if she is determined to retain her present ideas of southward expansion. J'apanese policy will be determined not by reason but by the outcome of the struggle for power which is still taking place inside Japan. Reason would suggest that the situation is such that Japan dare not make a move because of her commitments in China, the attitude of America, the lack of clarity in her relations with the Soviet. Union and the failure of Germany and Italy to make good their promises. But reason has very little to do with the matter and as long as there are influences sympathetic to a policy of appeasement, as iong as no agreement is reached between Washington and London on the one side and the Soviet Union on the situation in the Pacific is likely to remain near exploding point.