The Grey River Argus FRIDAY, March 15, 1940. A VITAL STRATEGIC FIELD.

Grey River Argus, 15 March 1940, Page 6

The Grey River Argus FRIDAY, March 15, 1940. A VITAL STRATEGIC FIELD.

Until, perhaps, there is greater activity on the main war front, attention will remain preoccupied with new possibilities on the Eastern Front. The enemy doubtless will now rest assured that, he has consolidated his hold upon the northern wing of that front. There will, of course, be, question of whether he will endeavour to exploit that hold, through the Scandinavian Peninsula, in order to gain the North Sea coast. Though the Finns appear to feel their new frontiers can be defended, it will remain to be seen whether the situation is exploited in order to enable a direct attack by air upon Britain to be carried on from the Scandinavian mainland. At anyrate. the Allies cannot meantime expect to do more in that quarter than to check the German use of neutral waters for transport and other naval purposes. The fact is that the Middle East has been rendered a, more vital strategic field, and the presence there of New Zealand and Australian soldiers has now a greater significance than when they landed behind a screen of secrecy that was of doubtful wisdom from the propaganda standpoint. The Allies made certain blunders in the Middle East after the last war, to which they to-day owe the fact that the enemy has a prospect of gaining aid when his other sources of supply arc limited. Germany now must depend mainly for an outlet for her exports upon the Brenner Pass and other roads into Italy, and for that reason may be unwilling by aggression to antagonise Italy and so close the outlets mentioned. It is reported that Turkey and Italy are in a mood to collaborate in protecting the Balkan countries should either Germany or Russia display hostility towards them. Meantime, it. is suspected thaf at Berlin a nou-ag-gression pact is being sought as between Roumania and Russia, which would be calculated to safeguard the German oil supply from the first-na.mcd country. Hungary is in a very awkward position, with Germany on her flank and Roumania disposed to resist the return of the territory which the Allies at Versailles cut out of Hungary in order to present it to Rouman'a. Hungary would be disposed to ally herself with Italy should such a thing prove feasible, but Italy is anxious to' preserve at least the status quo in order to promote the principle of a general peace. It is when the country further eastward is considered that the importance of the region is fully realised. Turkey made up with the Allies because she knows that the Soviet would like to secure Constantinople. In fact, both Germany and Russia would like to take up a role that would render them disturbers in the Mediterranean, and both are also disposed, if they see an opportunity, to seek an outlet to the Indian Ocean. This, in a way, makes themj less allies than rivals in the Near East, and that is the possibility upon which the Allies may early have reckoned

when sending their forces eastward in large numbers. Naturally, the Russian oil pipes across the isthmus between the Black and Caspian Seas suggest themselves as objects of Allied attack, but at the same time, the Russians could possibly cut pipe I lines from the fields in Tran supplying Britain. Russia also could menace India. It is stated Afghanistan is friendly to the Allies. The key power on the Eastern Front, however, is Turkey. She is keeping a watch on her Caucasus frontier, and has made great efforts in the Thrace sector, lest Bulgaria become a menace to Roumania. Greece’s relations with Italy are to-day better than they have been previously in the present century. Turkey is anxious to see Italy, Hungary, Roumania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia and Greece united to resist any enemy aggression. It is even doubtful if Germany yet has a wish to invade the Balkans, but Russia’s attitude is uncertain. Italy is no longer trusting Germany, being anxious to prevent Russian aggression, but Italy is only leaning towards the Allies in a moderate degree until such time as they assure her of some share of the territory they parcelled out of German colonies after the last war. France is now inclined to accommodate Italy in this respect, and the near future may see something done in this direction. However, Russian initiative is the thing mostly exciting speculation in the Near East. Georgia and other little Soviet States in the South are ready to revolt against Moscow if the chance offers, and it is likely that Moscow even now is uncertain of the attitude of the Cossacks and millions of others throughout the Ukraine, stretching right across the south of the country. It is calculated that the Allies now have with Turkey, about a million troops in the Near East. The famous French veteran, General Weygand, in Syria, has twenty divisions. The British forces, which must be nearly 200,000. will presently be increased. Air attacks could be delivered in the Caucasus, as Irak is friendly to the Allies. Germany, of course, has to make shift with whatever proportion of Baku’s 12 million gallons annual oil output that Russia spares for her. Taken, altogether, the Allied position on the southern end of the Eastern Front is much stronger than that of the enemy, and should thus serve to counter the enemy strength in the north. It is not even yet too late to hope that, without any great slaughter, the Allies may have accessions to their side which will put a speedy end to hostilities in their favour.