CENSUS FIGURES

Grey River Argus, 2 May 1938, Page 4

CENSUS FIGURES

DECLINING POPULATION. LOW BIRTH-RATE. The increase in the Dominion’s population for the year ended March 31, 1937, was 13,284, equal to 0.84 per cent, of’ the population at the beginning of the year, according to the statistical report just issued by the Census and Statistics Office. Exclusive of Maoris, the increase was 11,177, or 0.75 per cent. The Maori population, says the report, is increasing more rapidly than the white population. The net gain of population to the North Island was 11,113, or 1.18 per cent.; the increase in the South Island was 64, or 0.01 per cent. Dealing only with the white population, the report sets out that since 1875, 74 per cent, of the increase in New Zealand's population has come from excess of births over deaths, and 26 per cent, from the net migration increase. In the post-war era, 1921-36, the percentage furnished by natural increase has risen only to 79, and such rise, even, is due to the conversion of a moderate inflow through migration to a small outflow in the years 193135. The natural increase ratio was formerly unusually high in New Zealand, the annual average, for instance, reaching 29.41 per 1000 of mean population in the quinquennium 1876-80 (see tabular portion of this report). The 1936 figure of 7.89 per 1000, the lowest point yet reached in a long decline, speaks for itself. The relatively high rate of natural increase formerly recorded in New Zealand was derived in part from the exceptionally low death-rate which was, and still is, the lowest recorded in any country in the world, continues the report. No further fall in the death-rate to any substantial degree can be anticipated in the future. It may, indeed, be remarked that the age-constitution of the population is from this aspect now less favourable than in past years. The birth-rate in former years was vastly higner than the present level. For instance, in the five years 1876-80 it averaged 41.21 per 1000 of mean population; in the last five years it has been: 1932, 17.12; 1933, 16.63; 1934, 16.51; 1935, 16.17; and 1936, 16.64. Some improvement was to be expected with the lifting ot the depression, and a small recovery was manifest in 1936. If complete returns for 1937 substantiate the indications of interim returns for part of the year, a further slight gain will be recorded.

There was an apparent natural increase ratio in 1936 of 7.89 per 1000 oi mean population, and this may give a fictitious impression of the present position. Due to the inevitable timelag, a population will for some years continue to advance in total numbers after its reproduction-raie has fallen below a level sufficient to maintain an increasing or a stationary population, assuming a constant fertility and mortality The 1936 Census gave accurate figures of the age-constitution of the population, and enabled a closer inspection .of the position. It is clear that the conditions existing in 1936were those of a declining population. Using the 1936 Census data for ages of females, the 1936 record of births, and a 1931 New Zealand life table, a net reproduction-rate was computed and gave a value of only 0.967. A rate below unity means a population which must decline (although a time-lag may intervene) if existing conditions are maintained. An even lower value would have resulted from computations based on 1934 or 1935 data. The foregoing, of course, does not take into consideration potential gains or losses from migration, and also, as stated, lomits Maoris, who are steadily increasing in numbers. It is important to note also that the decline of population referred to is subject to the maintenance of the then existing conditions. There are certain indications of at least some recovery in the birth-rate and a sustained recovery of sufficient magnitude would afford a remedy.

SUFFICIENTLY SERIOUS. A prospective decline at hand in the total population is sufficiently serious in itself, particularly as much 1 of the Dominion’s economy is based on an expanding population. Internal ' changes in age-constitution, resulting from the fall in the birth-rate, also entail serious consequences. The movement of population to the higher age-groups has very widespread effects. An examination of 1936 census age statistics show that (omitting Maoris) there were 50,304 more persons over age sixty than there were in 1926. On the other hand, there were actually 22,100 fewer children under age ten in 1936 than there were in 1926. Apart from possible gains from immigration or losses from emigration, diminished numbers must result in future years in the age-groups comprising those in active occupations. Thus, for example, in twenty years’ time there will be’over 20,000 fewer persons aged twenty to twenty-four years than there were of those ages in 1936. Accompanying reduced numbers in the working years of life will be enhanced at ages past the normal working-span. The second source of populationincrease—viz., gain from migration—is of much less significance. The net migration losses, exclusive of Maoris, recorded a loss of population of 399 for the March year, 1936-37, and a gain of 727 for the calendar year. During each of the past six years economic conditions have occasioned a small exodus of population. This has occurred previously in 1888, 1890, and 1891 during a similar major depression.

The following analysis of migration increase affords an interesting comparison with the years immediately preceding the war (figures quoted are annual averages):— ! Total Net I Migration Increase Govern(including assisted mentally immigrants) assisted immiPeriod grants. 1909-13 7095 3479 1920-24 9683 7549 1 1925-29 6571 5808 1930-34 -561 396 1935-36 -828 5 Since May, 1927, the scheme of Governmental assistance to immigrants has been temporarily suspended, except in regard to certain classes of Immigrants.