INDUSTRY & THE SEASONS

Grey River Argus, 17 October 1936, Page 9

INDUSTRY & THE SEASONS

SCOPE TOR RESEARCH. A bad' summer in England described as “Ihe most unpleasant for many years,” gave a well-known economist.! Professor J. 11. Jones, a subject for : ;a thought-starting article in “The Ac- i count-ant” (LLondon), “I do not believe.” he -wrote, “that we fully appreciate the extent to which the industries of this country arc ‘seasonal’ in character. We know that the coal-mining industry is busier in -winter than, in summer,• tlnat the manuI i'acture of straw hats and panamas is seasonal; that holiday, resorts are largely deserted in winter. More than one book has been written by economists, upon seasonal fluctuations in deniagd and employment. But these investigations have been mainly concerned with industries that are markedly and obviously seasonal in character, a n d a hasty reader might conclude that seasonal fluctuations are exceptional j-ather than normal in industry. But an industry that is wholly independent of the- seasons is probably the exception rather than the rule. “The simple facts that have been (submitted suggested two observations. The first is that ran inquiry into fhe industrial incidence of abnormal weather conditions i.e. of unseasonable weather—should provide results that would be not. merely interesting, but also of real value. We know that during the past spring and present summer the demand for household coal has been considerably above the normal ‘seasonal’ demand. We also see evidence that an erroneous inference

has been drawn from this fact, which is being made the basis of over-optim-1 istic predictions about the trend of employment in the industry. It is extremely unlikely that a wet summer causes people to save more than the. would otherwise- have done, but we do, not possess any real knowledge of the ways in which, during -a wet summer, people spend money which was set aside for holiday expenditure. In other words, while we cannot help seeing the evidence of injury to some industries, we know little o-t the effects of such injury upon the industries that, benefit. “A wet Saturday morning means hundreds of telegrams cancelling appointments for the afternoon but how

do people spend that afternoon, and how do they spend the money that they had intended to devote to pleasure. with their companies.’ We know a great deal about ‘seasonal’ expenditure;- but we’ know little or nothing about expenditure due .to ‘unsea -enable weather.’ “The second' observation is that we have not paid sufficient. attention, as a nation. to the need for dovetailing industries and occupations. Workers (broadly interpreted) are content, to follow one occupation and one only and to remain idle during the ‘slack’ season. Large district specialise on industries of a. seasonal character aud[ accept seasons of depression and un-j employment, as 'an inevitable feature

of the industrial system. But it is not inevitable and so long as it lasts we shall continue to waste valuable resources. It represents one element of rigidity in the economic system that we should endeavour to eliminate. Unemployment returns are now so complete that it should! be possible io estimate, within much narrower limits of error thia was potsildc before the. days of unemployment insurance, the degree of seasonal fluctuations in industries and iu districts. On the basis of such information it might then be possible to introduce dovetailing- schemes which would reduce unemployment and raise the standard of well-being of the community.”