The Grey River Argus FRIDAY, October 16th, 1936. BELGIUM’S LONE HAND.

Grey River Argus, 16 October 1936, Page 6

The Grey River Argus FRIDAY, October 16th, 1936. BELGIUM ’S LONE HAND.

At first sight, the decision being now taken by Belgium to adopt an attitude practically of complete neutrality, might appear to alter further the balance of power on the European Continent. In fact, it might appear even a victory for the policy of Herr Hitler. The neutrality of Belgium used to be the subject of a general guarantee alike by Britain, France and Germany. It was one of the biggest surprises in 1914 when Count Von Beth-tnann-Hollweg at the outbropk of the war described that guarantee, so far as it applied to Germany, as no more than a mere scrap of paper. Yet it is now indicated that Belgium has declared her willingness to accept a new guarantee of her neutrality jointly by France, Britain and Germany. King Leopold, presiding for the last time over the Cabinet since h e ascended the throne, stated that the Locarno Agreement had been so upset by Germany’s reoccupation of the Rhineland that a renewal of that pact has no longer any real interest of value for Belgium. The King says ‘he presence of the German forces on the Rhine once again lias placed Belgium in almost the same international position as that, in which she stood before the European War. It may be remembered that the Locarno

Treaty provided against a reoccu. pation of the Rhineland in the arbitrary manner adopted by Germany. This naturally gave rise to the question of whether Belgium could hope for any better fate than she experienced 22 years ago from any agreement of a Locarno character. The answer to that question is evidently Belgium’s determination no long'er to trust entirely to anything which, in a crisis, any Power might in its own interest choose to regard not as an obligation, but only a scrap of paper. Belgium intends to strengthen her Army in a way that will render invasion a ranch harder proposition than it has hitherto been, while at the -’.ame time adopting an attitude so independent as to free her from the suspicion of being a potential ally of any particular Power as against any other. It has to be remembered that the traditional regard for guarantees is not now to. be relied on. The French left their northern frontier vulnerable before 1914 because they never expected the Germans to violate Belgian neutrality. Moreover, th e French are not relatively as powerful as allies as they used to be. Their population is declining, whereas Germany is becoming as strong in land armaments as ever she was. In addition, there is the new

trend of French policy in relation to Russia, with which country Germany is at variance, and Belgium may regard this as apt to endanger her in the event of hostilities. The parties to the Lojarno Pact have been at cross pur. poses even before the Rhineland occupation, which doubtless was calculated when it occurred to

have an influence on British policy in relation to the campaign of Italy in Abyssinia. On the question of whether Hitler can regard Belgium’s new orienta-

tion as. favourable, there is room for two opinions. It is a reasonable conclusion that Belgium _ is not strengthening her army with

an. eye to Ihe possibility that site might be some day repelling a French invasion. Nor is it likely that Belgium, would contemplate/ the possibility of offensive action against any other country. The more logical inference is that Belgium’s stronger army would be calculated rather to counter the possibility of an invasion from th e eastern side. At the same time, France cannot now count upon Belgium as an ally, any more than she could count either upon Switzerland or Holland. The implications arc that the situation is radically changing in Europe. This decision has been taken only with an eye to the new relations of the Powers. Rumania, Austin. Hungary, Germany and Italy have more or less an understanding, whereas France among her former associates can claim to have retained the allegiance only of Czecho-Slo-vakia, which is isolated, except for Russia. Poland is in a position even more awkward than Belgium, but it signifies something that she, like Belgium, leans to neutrality, out of respect, no doubt, for the might of Germany. The present French Government may be disposed to regard Belgium’s action with con cern, but the mass of the French people, equally with the British, will remember the P ar t Belgium played in the European War. and will trust to her judgment.