The Gisborne Times PUBLISHED DAILY FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 1928. WHAT IS THE POLITICAL OUTLOOK ?

Gisborne Times, Volume LXVIII, Issue 10745, 16 November 1928, Page 4

The Gisborne Times PUBLISHED DAILY FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 1928. WHAT IS THE POLITICAL OUTLOOK ?

The electors hy this time will have got over the election, fever and will now he deeply engrossed in the possibilities! which open out as a result of the complex political situation that has now arisen. Tt will be noted that the Reform Party can claim for certain only 22- seats, whilst the United Party is assured of at least equal numerical strength. Labor has 18 certain seats, with a chance ol' gaining at least- two others. Ir. is known that- the Uniteds reckon on support from at- least four of the Independents. The other, Sir C'. Statham, it is plain, will he reelected Speaker of the new House. What will be the exact- state of parties in the new Parliament- will, however, depend on the fate of the 13 seats at present doubtful. As far as can be made out-, 7 of them are likely to go to the Ref ohm Party. In such an event, Mr Coates and notSir Joseph Ward, will be.the leader of the strongest side. Mr Holland, it will he observed, claims that the Labqrites have now become masters of the political situation. That is really tha case, as far as the Uniteds ar*> concerned. When Parliament re-assembles, Sir Joseph Ward will be the Leader of the Opposition, and ho will have to think hard before he decides to move a motion of no'confidence. His problem should not ba any f-ear that it would not be carried—for Labor could not fail to assist him—but whether or not it would be ,SV. wise proceeding. Let ns. suppose that the Reform Party was defeated and that the Uniteds took office, as they would be invited to do. Is it to bo credited that they would produce a policy that- would lie agreeable to their Rled allies? Assuredly note A want-of r confidenco motion proposed by Mr Coates would then put- the Wardists out of power and, as the Reform Party would not lie able to carry on, Mr Coates, who would have been invite d to form a Ministry, would bo granted a dissolution in order that another appeal to the country might be made. Sir Joseph Ward’s remarks on the new political situation are significant. He hints that ha has teas on to expect the help of certain members who did not get into Parliament under the United banner. It is plain, however, that the Independents could not keep the Uniteds in ■bffica and what is hard to believe is* that ho could secure sufficient traitors from the Reform Party to enable him to retain office. Can it be that ho also expects to gain a few recruits from .the Labor Party?. Tijne will tell whether there was any truth in the report that was ; current, just prior to the formation of the United Party that a new Lib-Lab Party was to be established in' the Dominion! Sir Joseph Ward places quite a lot. of emphasis on tho point that it null be he who would have the right to move a vote of no-confidence in the Coates Government when Parliament re-assembles “if such were necessary’.’. What does this all mean? It would seem to mean that he is not at all sure that the Uniteds will receive adequate accessions to their strength to, enable them to hold'office without beiiig subject to Red' dictation. On the other hand, ho may fear that Mr Coates will win oiler the Independents and some of the Uniteds, -in which event a'noconfidenco motion would ho of . no avail. Rut that is not all. His significant "remark may amount to an in-, vitation to the Reform Party to agree to fusion. The whole position 1 is. to-day, both obscure, and complex and l 'it does not seem likoly that the political atmosphere will become clear until Parliament re-assembles.