The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED “THE TIMES.” GISBORNE, TUESDAY, OCT. 15, 1940. CRISIS IN THE BALKANS

Gisborne Herald, Volume LXVII, Issue 20378, 15 October 1940, Page 6

The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED “THE TIMES.” GISBORNE, TUESDAY, OCT. 15, 1940. CRISIS IN THE BALKANS

No longer is any attempt being made to conceal the fact that forces of German troops are assembling at various points in Rumania and to-day’s announcement that British attaches have left Bucharest is an indication of the serious view that is taken of the matter in official British quarters. Strange though it may seem, it is possible that these developments in the Balkans possess a greater significance to New Zealand than anything else that has occurred since the outbreak of war and for this reason, as well as for the more general aspects, the situa*tion demands careful examination The real purport of this new German move remains a matter of conjecture and the carrying out of whatever plans may have been made may depend upon the reactions of several different countries. It may be taken for granted, however, that the real German intention is something other than that which has been announced, the protection of the Rumanian oil fields. The most likely objective appears to be a drive through Rumania to the Black Sea, thence through Turkey and Syria to Egypt. The fact that German troops are reinforcing the Italians in Lybia suggests that as a result of the recent Berlin-Rome discussions plans have been concerted for an attack on Egypt from both east and west as an alternative to the failure of the intended German invasion of Britain and the poor results attending the Italian campaign. Since New Zealand troops are among those stationed in Egypt the Dominion is given an immediate interest in developments in this sphere. It is possible, however, that the ultimate interest will be even more intimate. If the Axis plan has been correctly interpreted and if it is the result of the recent negotiations, where does the new pact with Japan fit into the scheme of things? It has long been considered a possibility of enemy tactics that a German-Italian drive in the Middle East should synchronise with an attempt to launch the muchdiscussed Japanese drive to the south. This is a danger which, however remote it may seem, must be faced and is the real reason why the present moves both in the Middle East and the Far East are vested with so much interest. Not the least significant of this week’s news is the announcement that a secret session of the Australian Parliament has been called to discuss the position. Mr. Menzies has not hesitated to intimate that it is due to the tenseness of the situation in the Middle East which “had great significance for Australia.” The inference is that the possibility of action ox the lines indicated is appreciated in Australia and that appropriate steps are to be taken to deal with it. New Zealand should not be unmindful of the added responsibilities which may rest upon her also as the outcome of these events.

Whatever may develop from the present situation, however, it can be said with confidence that Britain and the Dominions will not be taken by surprise. As has been said, the possibility of such a move has long been contemplated and measures have been prepared to counteract it. In the meantime, there is a good deal of evidence that once again the Axis plans have gone awry. To a large extent they have been based on the assumption that no rpal opposition would be encountered oh the eastward march—that all the Balkan countries. Turkey and Egypt would bow to the threat of force; in just the same way, perhaps, as Japan assumed that her threats would suffice to prevent the United States from interfering In her plans for an advance towards the south. In the last few days, however, there have been some encouraging signs. Firstly, of course, there was the acceptance of the Japanese challenge by President Roosevelt and this has been followed by an equally clear declaration on the part of Turkey that any attack by Germany would meet with the strongest resistance. Nor is Turkey alone in her defiant attitude, because even Yugoslavia, surrounded as she is by hostile Powers, has declared that stie will fight in defence of her territory and her independence, and Greece, also virtually surrounded, has cancelled the visit of a military mission to Berlin and speeded up her defences. These almost simultaneous pronouncements lend force to the suggestion that concerted plans are being made to deal with the Axis threat in the Middle East and although the aggressors could have considerable strategic advantages, determined and united opposition to them would render their advance extremely difficult. If this plan is attempted it is certain that Russia, whose policy continues as enigmatical as ever, will be compelled to declare herself. If she is to connive at the advance to the Black Sea it means that she is prepared to concede to Germany control

not only of that sea but also of the straits which give access to it. In this event it would mean that Germany would control the bulk of the Soviet’s maritime trade, since the Baltic as well as the Black Sea is under German domination. It is inconceivable that Russia, however much she might desire the downfall of Great Britain, would thus sacrifice her own interests. On the other hand, if Russia would take a stand with Britain and the United States in defence of freedom, it is inconceivable that Germany would dare to attack Turkey or that Japan would risk her southward drive. Because this uncertainty does exist, however, and because New Zealand will be so vitally affected if the combined German and Japanese plans are launched, it is time that New Zealanders realised that they may yet have to fight literally for their lives.