Rapid Increase In Maori Population Is Forecast

Greymouth Evening Star, 11 July 1947, Page 4

Rapid Increase In Maori Population Is Forecast

A probable future increase in the proportion of Maoris to the total population of New Zealand gives especial interest to the current question of Maori representation in Parliament. According to an actuarial forecast made last year by Mr G. N. Calvert, of Wellington, the Maori population by 1975 will have more than doubled its 1945 total and will i epresent about 9 per cent, of the Dominion’s population, compared with about 6 per cent in 1945. The following table shows the Maori and non-Maori population at the beginning of 1945 and the forecast totals at the beginning of the three subsequent decades: — Non-

The forecast non-Maori figures include likely accretions from immigration. Possible Trends Mr Calvert obtained his figures after considering possible trends in population and selecting the most likely movement when all relevant factors had been examined. In the case of the Maoris, he presumed a falling mortality. That conclusion was considered most reliable for reasons similar to those which were likely to affect death rates among non-Maoris. They included the effects of medical advances which had not yet worked themselves out, as well as those of further medical progress, the use of milk in schools, annual holidays and better housing standards.

On the question of fertility, it was difficult to say whether the Maori rate would remain at its present high level, rise further, or fall. The family allowance would undoubtedly tend to bring about a rise. Against that it was to be noted that the Maoris were at present concentrated in two areas, the far North and the East Cape. As their numbers multiplied, various factors would come into play to induce Maoris to flow into other areas, thus upsetting the sex ratio, and to limit the rate of their growth to some extent. Another set of tendencies to limit the rate of growth would apply to those who left “Maori” areas. It had eventually been decided to forecast on the basis of a gradually falling fertility.

Steady Expansion .It seemed likely that the total Dominion population was likely to grow during the next 30 years at a fairly steady rate of about 250,000' in each 10-yearly period. Translated into terms of housing, that meant that about 25,000 more people would

require to be housed each year. That included about 3000, and later 5000, Maoris, and took in rural as well as urban growth. The fact that the Maori population would more than double itself in the next 30 years was of great importance from the point of view of Maori administration generally, and particularly in regard to the provision of land, housing, education and employment.

Maori Maori Maori 1945 103,000 1,634,000 1,737,000 1955 " 135,000 1,884,000 2,019,000 1965 175,000 2,073,000 2,248,000 1975 224,000 2,282,000 2,506,000