POST-WAR PROSPECTS

Greymouth Evening Star, 23 May 1942, Page 5

POST-WAR PROSPECTS

HOW TO AVOID DISASTER ECONOMIST'S ADVICE (N.Z.P.A. Special horrespondent) (Reed. 11.10 a.m.? LONDON. May 22. Mr. J. M. Keynes, in a speech at Manchester University, referred to the post-war burden. “I believe it will take us three years to recover from the effects of the war. During that period we must willingly submit to discipline,—progressively less severe in wartime, but very difficult to bear in peace-time. After that period we can reasonably expect to attain a measure of prosperity and health, not only not less, but higher even than be'ore. We can only lay sound foundations for that by accepting discipline in the first three years during which we will have to use our brains as never before. Orderly transition from war to peace without last time’s disorderly demobilisation, can avoid waste of labour or materials, or excessive transitional unemployment. It is not going to be easy. It requires maintenance in principle of many of war controls, and all rationing until the actual effects of the abundance of supplies prove controls and rationing are unnecessary.- We have to be full of plans, unlimited in ambitions of projects, but rigidly disciplined in the order and pace of their execution. It will be a time, such as it has not been our good fortune to enjoy for many years, for the use of political economic constructive imagination.” He added that Britain’s relations with the rest of the world were a clue to all else. Britain, America and Russia have the task of laying foundations for world relations, in which every country can, without hindrance, exchange its surplus produce for goods ft needs from other countries. It is not a matter of niggardliness of nature, but of organisation or relations with honest purpose and hard unt ramm ell ed think i ng. Mr. Keynes, referring to one aspect particularly concerning Manchester, says: “The future of Britain essentially depends on the great expansion of export trade. With that assured the rest will be comparatively easy. Without it our hopes for the future are sunk. It simply must not happen. There can be no it's about it. We must increase the volume of our exports by at least fifty per cent., compared with 1938. That meant returning to what we were doing in 1929.”

The Financial News comments: “Mr. Keynes’ remarks should go far toward overcoming the wave of defeatism that seems to have seized the export trade in general and Lancashire, in particular. It is high time that someone with Mr. Keynes’ authority delivered himself in this sense. By the end of the war, the world will be literally starved for manufactures,—much more than at the end of the last war. Immediately after the termination of hostilities, most countries will be anxious to replenish depleted stocks. The manufacturers’ problem will not be to find overseas customers, but to produce the goods they need.