GROWING POPULATION

Greymouth Evening Star, 17 April 1940, Page 11

GROWING POPULATION

LATEST N.Z. 1 STATISTICS. How the population of New Zealand is expanding is shown in the annual report compiled by tile Censufi and Statistics. Department, for the. year ended March 31, 1939. The report was published 'recently, and is the latest, available.

For the‘year under review the population of New Zealand proper increased by .20,235 —a figure equal to 1.26 per cent, of the population at the beginning of that year. The increase is the highest since 1930-31. The total population at the end of March, 1939, was 1,624,714, of which 825,063. were males and 799,651 were females. When returns for dependencies and mandated territories adjacent to New Zealand are included, the Dominion’s total population at the end of March, 1939, was 1,701,566, of which 864,416 were males, The lowest increase in population in New Zealand proper in recent years was the 10,867 in 1934-35, but from that date successive increases have been recorded and the total for 1938-39 was much/ highei’ than the average of 15,360 for the 10-year period before 1938. Apart from teritorial changes, the report adds, there are only Two sources from which increased population is possible—an excess of births over deaths, which is the natural increase, and 1 an excess of overseas arrivals over departures (net migration increase). Except in the earliest stages of the country’s development or in exceptional circumstances, thp former is the more important source. BIRTHS EXCEED DEATHS. . Since 1875, 74 per cent, of the increase in New Zealand’s population (other than Maori) has come from excess of births over deaths and 26 per cent, from the net migration increase. In the post-war area, 1921-38, the percentage furnished by natural increase rose to only 79.

The natural increase ratio was formerly unusually high in New Zealand, and was derived in part from tfie exceptionally low death rate. For many years this was the lowest record in any country in the world, but the report states that no further fall in the death-rate, to any substantial degree, may be expected in the future. A rising tendency in the death-rate is said to be evident and successive increases have been recorded since 1935.

“The improvement in the birthrrate for the last three years,” the report states, “affords justification for a rather more optimistic view, though rather as a portent of further improvement than as a measure of accomplished gains. For 1938 the gross reproduction rate was 1.106 and the net rate 1.025. A definite and marked continuation of this improvement is necessary before the natural increase ratio is satisfactory for a population in circumstances such as that of New Zealand. It should be noted that the comparatively small, upward movement in the birth-rate during the last three years and a-half has followed a much greater relative improvement in the marriage-rate, which may or maj r not be sustained.

HIGHER AGE GROUPS. “Should the birth-rate of future years reach and maintain higher levels, population growth is assured, but even if this takes pleace the effects of the low increase ratio of the more immediate past will remain for many years. For example, internal changes in age-constitution, resulting from the fall in the birth-rate, entail serious consequences. The movement of the population to the higher age groups has very -widespread' effects. An examination of the 1936 census age statistics shows that (omitting Maoris) here were 50,304 more persons over 60 years of age than there were in 1926. On the ottyer hand, there were actually 22,100 fewer children under the age of 10 in 1936 than there were in 1926.”

A striking feature of the returns is the increase in Maoris. By the end of March, 1939, the population of the Native race totalled 88,450 (45,968 males and 42,482 females), and in the year under review the increase was 1683, equal to 1.94 percent. The Maori population at the 1936 census numbered 82,326, compared with 63,670 in 1926, an increase of 18,656, or 29.30 per cent. The Maori rate of increase is much higher than the European, the intercensal increase for the latter being only 10.93 per cent. Till 1922 no intercensal estimates of Maoris were compiled. Since then statistics have been compiled when data available was sufficiently authentic. In the case of Maoris, however, it is stated that the same standard of accuracy as is reached in estimates for Europeans is still some distance in the future. Before 1926 persons of mixed Euro-pean-Maori blood were classed as European or Maori, according to degree. As this was impossible in the case of half-castes, the mode of living was adopted as the standard, and those living as Europeans were treated as such, while those who clung to Maori fashions -were classed with the Native population. In course of time this position became untenable, and for the census of 1926 it was laid down that all half-caste European-Maoris, together with those nearer in blood to Maori than European, were to be included in the Maori population.