EYES ON BALKANS

Greymouth Evening Star, 28 October 1939, Page 11

EYES ON BALKANS

1 UNSOLVED PROBLEMS. Once more the anxious eyes of Europe are turned towards the Balkans. If the worst fears of observers of events there are realised, the war may spread to involve those countries. And after that anything might happen. But this time, different from many other occasions in history when Balkan problems have called for solution, that anxiety arises from a different course. 4t is not caused by the internal condition of the Balkans themselves, but by the activities there, po- | tential and actual, of other Powers. ' The Balkans have never known that orderly development which has permitted the emergence of the great nation States of northern Europe, i Long years of internal peace—and therefore, of security—are necessary ! for any country to grow strong—indeed, to grow at till. The geographical insularity of the British Isles ha u .been a most important factor in Bri- ' tish history.

| It is hard to give any short explanation as to why that condition of peace has been conspicuously absent through the centuries from the southern European peninsula; but certainly a major factor has been the hopeless confusion of races among the people living i there. It is the old story of the irreconcilable ambitions of many small , minorities. Turks, Slavs. Ukranians, 'Greeks, Germans, Poles, Roumanians, Bulgars, Russians, and others live there is a confusion which made the coincidence of national and ethnological boundaries impossible. After Hr " m honest attempt was made in the treaties of Versailles to give expression to a growing sentiment of nationalism. Long before the (Great War the old Austro-Hungarian empire was tottering to its fall. The conflict only hastened what was in--1 evitable. The reason was that the nationalities which composed it were struggling for independence. | Out of its territories emerged the I States of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, with Austria and Hungary as autonomous elements of the old Empire. It,was a bold experiment, but [it was the logical way to try and give peace to that troubled area. Given a period of orderly development, which had been lacking, the experiment had a fair chance of success. The young and politically inexperienced nations had grave problems to face; but in the very fact that those same States knew that their future was theirs to make or to mar, and that they could no longer blame a repressive regime for their discontent and chaos, lay its greatest hope of success. To its cost, the world knows that that experiment has failed, temporarily at any rate it was the fault neither of the treaty makers nor of the States themselves. Factors over which they had no. control entered. Those factors were the power and conquest lust of Nazi Germany and the more recent actions of Russia. It is the possible effects of German and Russian aggression which holds the tense interest of the world at present. Just what those effects wi.ll be, just what the future actions of the aggressor nations will be is a matter for conjecture; but certain important factors may be pointed out.

THE MINORITIES’ PROBLEM. To begin with, the minorities’ problem should be more fully explained. The countries which comprise the Balkans are Roumania, Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Albania, Greece, and Turkey. There are minorities in all these countries. Roumania’s minorities comprise a total of 4,500,000, or 25 per cent, of the total population. They include 351,000 Bulgarians, 500,000 Ukranians and 174,000 Russians. Hungary has a minority population of 829,000 or 10.4 per cent, which includes 551,000 Germans, and 23,000 Roumanians. Of Yugoslavia’s 2,050,500 minority population, 505,000 are German and 231,000 Roumanian. The total is 17.2 per cent, of the total population. Bulgaria has 70,000 Roumanians and 58,000 Turk>. while in the Greek minority total of 1,090,000, or 17.6 per cent.. 530,000 are Serbs and Bulgarians. Turkey has 115.000 Greeks and 20,000 Bulgarians ' This gives some idea of the confusion of races in the Balkans, but Die important point is that so hopelessly mixed are those small “islands” of people, that however the treaty makers of 1919 had redi’awn boundaries, there would still have been a minority problem.

It is not suggested that the presence of minorities is the reason for possible trouble in the Balkans now. but it should be remembered that the Sudeten Germans were Germany’s excuse for taking Czechoslovakia, while Russia’s sudden interest in the Ukranians and the White Russians in Poland were her overt reason for the invasion of the country. The presence of minorities in every country of the Balkans would provide just as good—or just as poor—an excuse for action there.

It. is easy to see one important reason why Russia is interested in Roumania, Turkey and Bulgaria. All those nations border the Black Sea. Russia has a considerable navy in that sea, and if she is to have freedom of action in any other area of water she will want to have the free right of passage through the Dardanelles. Turkey controls those Narrows —and in that oiie fact lies the secret of the advances between Turkey and Russia.

Russia, wants Turkey to close the Straits to all belligerents. Whether that would clash vitally with British interest depends on Russia’s ultimate designs in the Balkans. If she merely desires the maintenance of the status quo, the closing of the Dardanelles might not be so prejudicial to Britain. But in the event of Russia making such claims in the Balkans as would cause the nations there to resist, it would be vital to Britain to have the right of access through the Bosphorus. In that regard it must not be forgotten that Britain has guaranteed Roumania. If it became necessary to go to Roumania’s aid the right, of way through the Straits would be invaluable. Realisation of the importance of the Bosphorus was a major factor in the British guarantee of 'furkey.