THE POLITICAL RACES.

Greymouth Evening Star, 2 December 1911, Page 5

THE POLITICAL RACES.

FAVOURITES FOR THE BIG EVENTS. INCREASINGLY INTERESTING IN OTAGO. [BY TELEGRAPH —SPECIAL TO THE STAR.] DUNEDIN, This Day. It, is a penal offence to indicate the pi-obable winner at a race meeting, but the same prohibition does not apply to electoral campaigns, so the political tipster;s occupation survives. We are now within a week of polling day, and naturally speculation is rife, as to the coming contests.

DUNEDIN WEST. Of course attention is most centred on Dunedin West. Indeed, it may safely be said that the eyes of the Dominion are focussed on this campaign. The Minister of Railways has two opponents (Mr H. D. Bedford) who .stands as a reform-no license candidate, and Mr J. W. Munro, Socialist. The last-named will certainly be a long way out of the hunt. His position his committee seem to have realised, fer only yesterday they published this pledge, which the electors generally disapprove of as practically being government by caucus:— “To the Speaker of the House of Parliament and Representatives, —I, James Wright Munro, duly elected member of Parliament for the electoral district of Dunedin West, in the Dominion of New Zealand, at theGene.ial Elections, held on the seventh day of December, 1911,* do hereby resign the said office of member on and from this day of The pledge is in accordance with the constitution of the New Zealand Socialist Party, and is sealed for postage, to the National Executive. Mr Bedford, at one stage of tho campaign, looked like having a winning chance. The feeling is growing, however, that he made his run too soon, and that his too frequent platform appearances are rendering his speeches somewhat uninteresting. Mr Millar has hardened Iris party since his return from his Parliamentary duties, and despite the confidence of his' chief opponent, I think 'the returning officers placing will be Millar 1, Bedford 12, Munro 3. DUNEDIN NORTH. For Dunedin -North the late member will certainly head the poll on Thursday next, but it is open to question whether Mr Loudon (Government) or Mr Douglas (Independent) will be the runner up. DUNEDIN CENTRAL. A second ballot is a foregone'conclusion for Dunedin Central. The late member Mx J. F. Arnold (Government) and Mr C. E. Statham (Opposition) are equally confident. The first-named will command the no-license vote, as he has declared' for the bare majority, while “The Trade” will rally round the Statham banner. Mr McPherson’s support will apparently be confined to Labour, which, as in all the Dunedin electorates, is none too solid just row. The result is forecast: Arnold 1, Statham 2, McPherson 3. My prediction is a win out-right on the first poll.

DUNEDIN SOUTH. Mr T. K. Sidey will have a very easy task in retaining Dunedin South from his only opponent, Mr McManus (Labour). BRUCE. For Bruce, the late member, Mr Massey’s first lieutenant, is being opposed by Mr McKinley, an out-and-out Government supporter and a member of the' Otago Education Board. Though Mr James Allen will doubtless succeed in retaining the seat, his majority will be considerably diminished. Mr McKinley is personally popular, while the old member has estranged a number of church adherents by his declaration that he has become a convert to the totalisator. CLUTHA. Clutha will stick to Mr Malcolm (Opposition). although Mr George Livingstone will poll fairly heavily. Had the latter been a resident of the electorate instead of being an importation from North T)tago, he might have succeeded in gaining the seat for the Government. OAMARU. A triangular contest is waging in Oamaru, which now comes as far south as Waitati. All that need be said at the present stage is that there will be _ a second ballot, the participants in which ■uni be the Hon. T. Y. Duncan (Government) and Mr Lee (Opposition). The other candidate, who is set down as “also started,” is Mr R. Milligan. WAKATIPU. Considerable interest is being taken in the contest for Wakatipu, portion of which electorate is in Otago and part in Southland. Mr William Fraser, the veteran Opposition representative of the Cold Lakes, is being sorely pressed by Mr Jas. Horn, charman of the Vincent County Council. My prediction made with considerable confidence is that a change in the representation will come about. OTAGO CENTRAL. Otago Central has also three Richmonds in the field, and none is likely to secure ■mi absolute majority in the preliminary contest. The official placing on Thursday may be: Scott 1, Mason 2, Bennetts 3. The Government candidate, who will get into the final running, will have the aid of the third man on the final vote. OTHER EVENTS. Sir Joseph Ward (Awarua), Mr J. A. Hanan (Invercargill), Government, and Mr J. G.. Thomson (Wallace) are tipped to win outright.