FORECAST DIFFICULT

Evening Star, Issue 25895, 12 September 1946, Page 7

FORECAST DIFFICULT

THE AUSTRALIAN ELECTIONS IS THERE A BIG SWING VOTE? BETTING SIX TO FOUR AGAINST GOVERNMENT DEFEAT (From C. R. Mentiplay, N.Z.P.A. Special Correspondent.) (Rec 10.30 a.m.) \ SYDNEY, September 12. As the campaigns move towards a crisis with the election scarcely more than a fortnight _ away, it becomes increasingly difficult to forecast the result.. The Labour Party refuses to oome out into the open with counter-proposals to Opposition promises of substantial tax reductions. VVhile the election is being fought, as predicted, mainly on the taxation issue, Labour has delivered several blows aimed at exposing . the weaknesses in the Coalition policies. Most important of these relates to the treatment of Communists. While all these parties have expressed themselves as anti-Communist, only Mr A. W. Fadden, leader of the Country Party, has so far committed himself to threaten suppression of the Communists and deportation of the leaders. Mr R. G. Menzies believes in “ keeping the Rods out in the open where you can see them.” The result is a chink in the Coalition platform. Labour does not pursue the advantage,’however, and has not replied adequately to claims that in electorates where Labour, Coalition, and Communist candidates are standing, the Labour Party has asked the electors to give ■> second preference to the Communists rather than to the Opposition. In Australia, where the preferential voting system is employed as opposed to “ first past the post ” system as in New Zealand, this exchange of preferences implies that at least some Labour men regard the Communists as the . lesser of two evils. WILL BE CLOSE.

A survey of the present Opposition of the House of Representatives, taken in the light of recent developments, indicates that the result of the election. will be very close. There are no independent members, and of 74 seats Labour holds 49, the Liberals 15, and the : Country Party 10. The Liberals compute that if 250,000 voters changed their allegiance, Labour would lose .13 seats, which would give the Coalition a working majority. That this would not represent a great swing in the voting is indicated by the - findings of several unofficial polls. While not entirely reliable, these fix the number of voters not tied by party loyalty as 14 per cent., or 624,000. Of these, it is estimated that two-thirds voted Labour last election, but there is no guarantee that they will do so again. Labour contends quite mlidently that there is no such thing as a swinging vote any more. Nevertheless, there, are weak Labour seats in all the States, and even the most ardent Labour supporter would hesitate to predict that Labour could improve its position in the House. THE KEY STATE. In New South Wales, which, with 28 seats, is undoubtedly the key State in the coming election, 11 of Labour’s 21 seats were won on a swing vote in the elections of 1937, 1940, and 1943. Even such a- swing against Labour as was indicated last July could rob the party of six of these. In the three elections, Labour won a total of 23 seats from the Opposition throughout Australia. Bearing this in mind, the unbiased spectator must find a little naive the Labour statement that there is no swing vote. ' The Opposition is hoping for a 10 per cent, swing, which they hope will give them a minimum of seven seats in New South Wales, three in South Australia, one each in Queensland, Western Australia, and Victoria. In figures they have an even chance. Australians will bet on anything, however. When you know what large sums are being laid on the result of the polls of September 28, it is significant that the prevailing odds here in Sydney are 6 to 4 against a Government defeat. At that there are many takers.