GERMANY'S DILEMMA

Evening Star, Issue 25425, 5 March 1945, Page 5

GERMANY'S DILEMMA

6 Many Threats—Few Reserves Bombing And Industrial Losses Critical Only Weather Will Prevent Early End Press Association—By Telegraph—Copyright (Bee. 11.50 a.m.) ' EUGBY, March 4. The view that the weather alone would prevent a com* paratively early end to the war was expressed by some experts at Field-Marshal Montgomery's headquarters, according to a correspondent there. He says that with German heavy in» dustries now within range of artillery and fighter-bombers the enemy's situation was more than precarious. The Allied armies are now leaning on the Euhr, and, with the ■ loss of Silesia to the. Eussians, the only sources of production for • the German armies are the' manufacturing areas of Western Czecho-Slovakia. In the past months the German army has been gradually losing its lifeblood as a result of the Allied bombing strategy; but there 6an be no doubt that the loss of the Euhr will prove a mortal blow, through which the life of the German army mav ebb slowly. If the"air forces are able to carry out the strategic plans and give the army the support it needs, and the weatheralso does not cause a hold up on the eastern front (allowing enemy reinforcements on the western front), then the end will draw near at a greater pace. There can be no doubt that the great successes on the Russian front, followed by the Allied victory in the battle west of the Rhine, have drained the German army to the dregs. There has been a very definite drop in the morale of the Wehr> - macht. The will of the German soldiers to surrender is greater than it has ever been. A great collapse may come in chunks at the end. There is evidence that disintegration has begun. There is a slump everywhere in the German army except, perhaps, in high-class fanatical paratroopers. It is these who are bearing the brunt of the fight to hold the small bridgehead west of the Rhine around Wesel.

The enemy has now no- reserves of the right type. The Germans made their great gamble when they launched the Ardennes offensive, brought in their own mobile reserves—the panzer army —and saw it badly mauled. They pulled .this back for replacements of equipment and personnel, and the German High Command is now suffering its greatest headache as to which frontto despatch it. Most German divisions are down to less, than 60 per cent, oftheir strength, and are sadly lacking in armour equipment. Even the panzer divisions have been forced to use hdrsp transport largely owing to a lack of oil. caused by Allied bombing. We have now occupied some of the enemy's productive areas, and hanging over his head is the threat of Allied assault across the Rhine.

Our engineers will face a very bio task in bridging.the Rhine, especially in view of the fact that the river is likely to flood at any time, . and there is an area on either side now which is nothing but mud, following recent flooding. But once our troops are across it is difficult to see where the enemy can form any kind of defensive line even if he has the men available. His reserves are everywhere shrinking. He has about 20 divisions in Italy, but the Allied air forces have done such a good job in disrupting communications that he would have the greatest difficulty in pulling these troops out. He has also about 15 divisions in Scandinavia, but he cannot drain these resources from Norway, as the TJ-boat warfare is entirely dependent on the security of that area.