COMMENT and REFLECTIONS

Evening Star, Issue 23817, 22 February 1941, Page 11

COMMENT and REFLECTIONS

The situation has altered little during the tveeh, whose most pregnant event has been the ratification of a Turco-Bnlgar nonaggression pact. This portent, as ice see it, may early result in a ferocious transformation of diplomacy into war. There is a wide cleavage of opinion between our estimate of the situation and the enemy's. He claims it as a diplomatic, victory that will give his troops access by the Bulgarian Corridor to the Aegean and the outflanking of Greece; ice, who actually nurtured the agreement as a weapon to save Bulgaria from such enslavement as Rumania has suffered by the road of threats, intrigue, and propaganda, take the view (endorsed by Russia) that, since the pact expressly excludes violation of the prior agreement with Britain., one false move by Germany might align Turkey, Greece, and Yugoslavia with us on Hitler's southern frontier. Nevertheless, the Axis outlook is so much less promising than it was even a month ago that he may be compelled to stake his destiny upon a Balkans campaign. Largely, his dilemma arises from gross miscalculation of the obstinate integrity of Marshal Retain. The naive acceptance by that aged warrior of “an honourable peace ” did not include Hitler’s strenuously-pressed claim for a betrayal of his trust, of his people, or of his quondam ally. The deluded old man has displayed such moral stamina in standing pat upon the letter of the armistice terms, has proved so tellingly that a knave can never fathom the reactions of an honest man, that Hitler is deprived of the easy road to Central Mediterranean control which possession of France's North African bases would facilitate, and which would in a measure counter the allied victories in Cyrenaica and Albania. In his resistance to German pressure to give the facile. Laval a ministerial post of importance, Petain reveals something of the spirit of his Verdun motto —“ They shall not pass," which is as national a heritage as Nelsons “ England Expects—Failing to secure the French bases for a bid for control of the Mediterranean, Hitler had tivo possible courses —both very risky. He could depose Petain and occupy the portion of France still technically free, in which case Petain would most certainly order Weygand to rally the French army and navy in North Africa; or, hesitating to rekindle the smouldering embers of Gallic spirit, he could turn (as in fact he has turned) to the Balkans as a fulcrum to dominate the Eastern Mediterranean. He has abundance of material for this venture. Even though he requires the threat of a couple of million men to hold Britain beleagured, he has at least another two million at disposal elsewhere. Meantime rumours multiply of this Balkans offensive (three weeks ahead), and an invasion of England, a further three weeks off. At intervals we are presented with reports from neutral quarters of such designs upon our island, but these reports may be merely the usual Teutonic tactic of engendering doubt and perplexity, and there is certainly no justification in recent air war records for belief that Hitler could achieve supremacy for one hour—let alone for the several days that would be required to stabilise any considerable levy in England, During January, Britain maintained her air initiative in most convincing fashion, British pilots destroying 214 enemy machines at, a cost of but 34 of their own planes. It is true that Germany has been husbanding her resources during the last six weeks and may have built up a great new air armada, but the same is true of us, and in such degree that, without tveakening horn(> defence, we have been able to despatch many new squadrons of the latest-type bombers and fighters to meet Japans threat upon Singapore. Britain's reply to Germany's Messerschmitt 110 and the new Focke-Wulf Fighter is the Mark HI. Spitfire, with an effective speed of 400 miles per hour, and the Mark H. Hurricane with its automatic forward-fir-ing cannon which makes it the most potent destructive machine in modern air warfare. The battle of last September, in which the invincibility of the German Luftwaffe was so completely shattered, is certain to be renewed this spring, the whole battle fought over again with the new-type machines each side has developed. The Germans ivill probably operate along the huge arc from. Bordeaux to Trondheim, and Londoners, who have already served their austere apprenticeship in total war, will be again bathed in its terrors, this time as tradesmen, as initiates. They will be equal again to the sustaining of their tragic role. The lacquer and the varnish of metropolitan life have already been burnt off, and only the steel is left, which is the genius and prestige of the race, resistant to the shrewdest blows. If Germany would soften England for invasion a repetition is essential of the mass daylight, raids of last September, and our fighters may inflict such irreparable losses on the Luftwaffe as to enable our partial air offensive to become a total offensive. The only true word spoken by the official German Press these many months was the recent dictum that if Italy lose the whole of her African Empire she need not lose the war; that reverses are as inevitable as victories; and that the side which should wifi is that able to strike the last blow at. an exhausted enemy. This is, in fact, a death grapple between two Empires, and one of them must fall. History is on our side —the maritime empire has generally prevailed over the land empire. But we must never allow ourselves to forget that tve face a tireless adversary, wailing days, weeks, months for his chance, and smashing home at last with horrible thoroughness. He must never get that chance, whether by over-confidence, complacency, or lassitude. The resounding successes of the African campaign might well induce a fatal complacency. All Cyrenaica is purs, Eritrea has been pierced to the coast, in Abyssinia the British thrust is only 100 miles from Addis Ababa, and the southern, drive over the frontier of Somaliland is progressing favourably. But all this is nothing, is negatived at a stroke if England fall. Our thoughts refuse to travel that road.