THE PROBLEM OF THE FUTURE

Evening Star, Issue 23352, 23 August 1939, Page 3

THE PROBLEM OF THE FUTURE

WRONG DIVERSIONS OF PRODUCTION WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN ARMAMENTS SLOW DOWN? NEED FOR SHAPING POLICIES NOW The League of Nations Economic and Financial Organisation is equally realistic iu political as well ns iu economic terms when it turns to a survey of national production in the different countries. Every country to-day is engaged in the large-scale production of armaments. This employs immense resources of material and capital and such production has provided a temporary palliative for unemployment. Responsible people everywhere are beginning to show concern for the future; whether or not the armaments at piesent being manufactured are consumed in war, there lies ahead of every country a time'when the present organisation for producing munitions will have to undergo readjustment. A large proportion ot the national income in many States is being employed in uneconomic ways and men are being withdrawn from the normal occupations of a peaceful world. How to reverse tins process and return workers to the production of peace-time consumable goods, how to adapt tins organisation for improving conditions of life ot the ordinary citizen; this is the problem before Governments to-day. The Economic and Financial Organisation has asked the League Assembly when it meets in September to help prepare its members to deal with these problems by studying four related questions: (1) commercial policy; (2) the standard of living; (3) the economic repercussions of armaments productions; and (4) demographic and other long-trend problems. Some guiding lines are provided for this discussion by a small group of experts called the Co-ordination Committee, which met under the chairmanship of the Right Hon. Stanley Bruce (Australia) to consider how these problems might best be put to the Assembly. The following is a summary of some of their notes:—

1. Commercial Policy.—lt is taken as axiomatic that relatively free trade is an essential factor of wholesome economic development and hence social well-being. One of the major economic problems of many countries to-day is to find means for safeguarding their working population against the danger of unemployment. The creation of work by the State can only be a temporary palliative, especially when that work is devoted to military preparedness. It will tend to stimulate imports without promoting exports and thus strain the I balance of payments and create maladjustments in international trade. We cannot hope to find a general and stable solution of the problem of unemployment except by peaceful economic collaboration which will provide each country with its Hying space—that is to say full opportunities for the development of its economic life. 2. Standard of Living.—Trade is a means to an end and not an end in itself. That end is the wealth and welfare of the people conducting it. In the present situation, one is bound to recognise that the movement towards higher standards among those people who are forced to divert a large and increasing proportion of their pro-, ductive resources to the requirements of national defence must in the immediate future he slowed down if not entirely stopped. But, even now, standards of consumption can to some extent bo protected and perhaps even raised by using existing resources more econonucially and efficiently, ft is, indeed, with such methods that the League committees dealing with the subject have primarily concerned themselves The discussions of the committee charged with this question have centred round two means lor improving living standards—first, the spreading of existing scientific knowledge over as wide an area as possible and, secondly, the study of new problems the solution of which may help to guide policy or practice in the future. The'' Co-ordination Committee expresses the hope that the European Conference on Rural Life, which is to be held in the autumn of this year, may give an impetus to the spread of scientific knowjedge amongst agriculturists and to the improvement of" distribution and marketing methods. Special studies are now being undertaken by the technical organs of the League and the_ International Labour Office in connection with the standard of living—studios relating to physiological standards, to a comparison of those standards with actual levels of consumption, to problems of taxation, transport costs, housing, etc. Each one of these will add to the body of knowledge on whirl) enlightened policy niav be based.

3 Economic Repercussions of Armament Production.—Whatever the final outcome of the state of political tension may he, society will have to readapt. itself sooner or later to a peacetime economy, and a difficult period of adaptation must be foreseen oh account of the present diversion of plant and labour to armament needs and the growing dependence of business on Government spending. Governments can scarcely begin to concern themselves too soon with the problems to which that transition must give rise. On the contrary. _ policies should now bo shaped witb_ that consideration constantly in mind. When one considers the number of human beings now under arms or engaged in the production of armaments, instead of being employed in normal industry and agriculture, it is obvious that acute problems of transference will arise. This whole question the Co-ordination Committee recommends should ho studied in dose collaboration with the International Labour Office.

4. Demographic and Long-trend Problems.—Pv this is meant the problems presented by population pressure when tho growth of population outruns the development of its environment; the problems presented by the arrest of population growth; the instability which is caused hv the increasing importance of the demand for durable goods or luxury services; the forces that determine' the terms of trade between agricultural and industrial States.

These, thou, are the problems which the Assembly of the League will discuss when it_ meets on September 11, with the object of assisting Governments in the difficult tasks of public organisation that lie ahead.