RIDING A TIGER

Evening Star, Issue 22790, 27 October 1937, Page 13

RIDING A TIGER

BEFORE 1914 AMD Tfr-OAY THE EUROPEAN SITUATION It is now 23 years since the European War broke over the world with the invasion of Belgium and the march on Belgrade (writes Count Sforza, former Italian Foreign Minister, to the ‘ Manchester Guardian How many people in our Western capitals had been clear-sighted enough to say to themselves five weeks earlier, when the news came of the assassination at Serajevo of the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, that that meant war? In a Europe even more torn by hatreds and suspicions than that of 1914 it is worth while to recall certain of the less-known episodes of that period, episodes of such folly and inhumanity that we used to say, with too much confidence, that we should never again witness their like. So many hooks have been written on Francis Ferdinand of Habsburg-Este, the victim at Serajevo; he has tempted writers as the enigmatib side of a historical hypothesis. But what is the worth of their witness? Scarcely any of them knew the man, or his family, or the atmosphere in which ho lived. I knew the atmosphere, and knew Francis Ferdinand himself, but I hesitate to pronounce a judgment. Yet I cannot but think that a reform such as could alone have transformed Imperial Austria into a living federation of satisfied peoples under the segis of the Crown must of necessity have been a work of. human sympathy, of intellectual generosity, and of far-seeing vision, while Francis Ferdinand’s embittered heart was filled only with aversions and suspicions—sterile feelings. FIVE YEARS EARLIER. Five years before the crisis which his assassination produced another struggle between competing influences had brought Europe almost to the verge of war. This was in 1909, at the time of the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by Austria-Hungary, an annexation decided on in defiance of treaties. Three years later, in 1912, speaking to the Bulgarian statesman, Daneff,' Francis Ferdinand said: “The Serbs are convinced that I am their worst enemy. They are mistaken; it was I who, at the time of the Bosnian crisis, prevented the annihilation of Serbia.” At that time Francis Ferdinand was certainly in favour of peace. This was because he felt that ho would need the support of the Slavs of Austria when he became Emperor and set out to destroy the hegemony of the Magyars, whom he detested. But Ido not think it is likely that, even as Emperor, he would at all times have found the strength to resist the “ Aulic Council ” in its pressure for war as the only means of preserving the privileges of the directing classes, privileges which, in Austria as in Hungary, were threatening to slip from their hands. In France, in England, and in Belgium (where it is not as well known as it should be that Liege was invested by powerful Austrian batteries, although Vienna had not thought fit to declare war on King Albert) there are not a few people who have preserved a warm corner in their hearts for the old feudal Austria. These groups are a little too ready to forget that just a year before Serajevo the Austrian diplomats coolly informed Austria’s allies, Berlin and Rome, that she intended to attack Serbia.

“A DEFENSIVE ACTION.’ 1 Merey .the Austrian Ambassador at Rome,'added that he was sure that Italy would recognise that this was a “ defensive action,” and that the clauses of the Triple Alliance Treaty would therefore operate in favour of the Vienna Government. It was only the indignant reply made by Giolitti, the Italian Prime Minister, that brought the controllers of Austro-Hungarian policy to the realisation that the time was not ripe for this criminal stroke. Eleven months later the Serajevo assassination provided the diplomatic and military authorities at Vienna with the happy pretext (as they regarded it) for which they had been anxiously waiting. It was the Imperial Minister of War himself, General Baron Kro* batin, who, when visiting Prince Furstenberg. the President of the Austrian Upper House, in the spring of 1914, declared to him: “ If another opportunity comes for settling accounts with Serbia we must not let it slip as we did in 1909.” About the same time Count Berchtold, the director of foreign policy of the Dual Monarchy, said; “ I do not want to make the same mistake as Aerenthal in 1909; it will not be I who will prevent a final settlement with Serbia at the first opportunity.” Those who think that once he had become Emperor Archduke Francis Ferdinand would have been capable of changing these ideas and passions are relying, I think, on the secular authority enjoyed by the sovereign in Austria ; they overlook the fact that the loyalty to the monarchy of the upper classes is nowhere better described than in the old proverb of the Prussian Junkers ; “ Let the king be absolute, so that he shall do as we wish.” WOULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE. Even if in' 1914 the sovereigns had been less passive than the Emperor Francis Joseph and less indiscreet in their utterances than William 11., it would have been easy for such men as Krobatin, Berchtold, and Conrad von Hotzendorf to stage a good incident which, thanks to “ patriotism ” and “ prestige,” would have made it impossible for anyone to arrest the mad adventure. Between 1914 and 1937 (or 1938?) the situation has grown even worse. Why? Because in the place of the old dynasties we now have demagogues. Before 1914 the war camarillas had laboriously to persuade the dynasts to risk everything in the sanguinary game of war—and, as we saw, one of them, the man assassinated at Serajevo, was no partisan of war-making. The demagogic leaders of to-day, on the other hand, are well aware that, destitute of legitimate authority as they are, they can only retain their places with the aid of theatrical moves, each more of a gamble and more of a peril than its predecessor .

The Chinese' have a picturesque ideogram defining the men who, seem omnipotent to the cowardly, but in reality have no alternative but to continue the fatal course on which they have embarked, until the final disaster that destroys them. They are “ riding a tiger.” The old rulers were seated : on thrones; the demagogic 1 ‘ leaders 5 ’ of to-day are riding a tiger, and the one thing they cannot do is to hold it in. A PROBLEM OF VISION. All the more reason why those who are for peace above all should not close their eyes. And to repeat the tragic errors which brought a European war in 1914 is to close our eyes. The principal cause, of the cocksureness of Vienna and Berlin in 1914 was the conviction of the two autocracies that there was no limit to the timidity and the patience of the Entente Governments. Is it possible to hope that public opinion in the free countries, small and great, will at last realise that it was largely the many retreats of the Entente that led to the two Central Empires in 1914 to imagine that they could go to any lengthf and that everyone would give way before their bluffing and threats? If so, it is still possible to prevent the repetition of the great crime. It is not a problem of force, but a problem of seeing clearly. ■