CHESSBOARD MOVES

Evening Star, Issue 22719, 5 August 1937, Page 15

CHESSBOARD MOVES

DICTATORS AND DEMOCRACY PROPHECY'S REALISATION Writing from Berlin to the ‘ New York Times ’ early in May, Mr Frederick Birchall made an interesting analysis of 'the international position in ’■Europe and the developments he deduced would arise. A swiftly-realised prophecy, contained in his penultimate (paragraph, was the suggestion that to the Spanish* embarrassing to Italy on account of the failure •of her “ volunteers ” to break it, would bo action by Herr Hitler and not Signor Mussolini directed to restoring a state of flux-without prejudicing General Franco’s chances and without open commitment. The changing circumstances in tho ■Balkans and their possible influence on the balance of power were also dia- • cussed in his analysis, which explains much of the background of events re- • corded in the cabled news which roaches New Zealand. If one took a , map of Continental Europe and inserted red and blue pins in it to mark the scenes of recent and projected conferences signifying concentrated diplomatic manoeuvring, the map would be full of red pins at Baris, Brussels, The Hague, Prague, and Bqlx grade, indicating efforts of democratic countries to get .together for purposes of stabilisation along the lines of a liberal understanding.. And there would .be blue pins at Venice, Rome, Bucharest, Berchtesgaden, Berlin, and Warsaw to show centres where two great dictatorship are forging, new ties between themselves and smaller countries which might naturally fall within their orbit. FOR THE GOOD, PERHAPS. An interesting question at present is : whether these, activities promise more :• stability for Europe or-less. To this it is difficult to provide a concrete answer. Perhaps on the whole_ the effect thus far has been good. Dictatorship has not had a monopoly of initiative. Democracy has abandoned its attitude of stunned surprise oyer assertive wickedness, and is bestirring itself to meet it. Dictatorship has been put move or less on the defensive, but is do- • ing well nevertheless. There was for a time a single axis—that of Rome-Berlin —about which the whole world was expected to revolve. . There is now another—London-Paris — . toward which the Scandinavian countries and Low Countries are tending to adhere. It is a movement towards ■ peace and prosperity by way of better -understanding and greater freedom of ■ trade. It moves slowly, hut, as its in•ffuence extends, the area of militarism ■ and force becomes restricted. The Rome-Berlin axis has not revolved recently quite as freely as it did. Evidently lubrication was required; hence the Venice conference between Signor Mussolini, of Italy, and Dr Sohnschnigg, of Austria, Dr Hjalmar Schacht’s trip to Brussels, the innumerable visits being exchanged between German and Italian journ 0 lists, publishers, industrialists, youth leaders, , ’ and- Labour Front leaders, _ and the journevs of the German Foreign Minister, . Baron von Neurath. and tho Reichswehr Minister, General von Blom- . berg, to Rome, all to culminate perhaps in a heart-to-heart communion of the Fuehrer and the Duce, the two great motive powers of the axis. After > that the axis will hum. There, are some who counselled; “ Look out for, storms tho second week in May,” hut a storm at that lime was improbable. Even a dictatorship must have heart for other peoples’ reioicing. Besides, Mussolini has his hands full in Ethiopia, and is in rone too good a state financially, and Hitler has his Four-vear Plan to put oyer, which threatens to drain to the iimit the existing German resources. THE RIVAL CAMPS. So perhaps this is as good a time as anv to eva’uate the prospects immediately ahead of the rival ideologies. Any such estimate must begin by taking account _ of two facts not directly connected with conferences, hut nevertheless motivating them. These facts are British rearmament, which has changed tho entire European picture, and the consequent draw-

ing closer together of the two dictatorship systems, Nazism and Fascism. It has been consistently asserted that, despite temporary indications to the contrary, Hitler and Mussolini would bo found in close partnership whenever the time came for a showdown. Every development of the last six months has tended to confirm that view. The partnership has not yet reached the stage of an outright military alliance which would be a direct challenge to the rest of the world, but that is not necessary at present, and all is set for its declaration whenever the time is deemed ripe. There are two factors that must never be forgotten in any analysis of .the European situation, for they are vital: the self-strengthening of democracy after a long period of complahffent cohfiYlMce, Imd t h (Telo'ser association of ■ Powers whose designs this strengthening* threatens to confront with an unsurmountablo obstacle. In tho present and (lending conferences the objectives are divided into three main groups. There is. first, an effort on the part of Great Britain to promote a Western European pact of non-aggression and mutual reliance in ease of need. In this effort France, besot by internal economic troubles, is being dragged along as a hesitating and somewhat reluctant partner. The main object just now is to include Belgium, while granting the independence she craved, in a sufficiently definite understanding to insure her co-operation in resisting any aggression westward. GERMAN FOREBODINGS. This, though nuavowed, was the motive of Mr Eden’s conferences in Brussels at the end of April. They outwardly went well enough to arouse the direst German forebodings, bub the extent of actual Belgian commitments is probably open to doubt. Second, and concurrently, there were the soundings, undertaken by Dr Paul Van Zeeland, of Belgium, to ascertain the possibilities of bringing the world back to a more peaceful outlook by the of trade harriers and the inauguration of financial co-operation. It was partly this movement which drew Dr Schacht to ' Brussels and started Maurice Frere, who is Van Zeeland’s ablest economic aide, on a tour to Paris, London, The Hague, Berlin, and Warsaw, It must be confessed that its prospects are the least encouraging of the three. Germany is definitely out of any such international effort except at her own price, which is regarded as utterly prohibitive. The price includes gold credits or outright loans; colonies, which Great Britain is effectively prohibited by home and dominion public opinion from granting, and certain vaguer demands whose extent, < while never publicly set forth, arouses' general uneasiness. Any economic and financial co-opera-tion which does not include Germany is scarcely to be considered. Therefore the prospects of a new economic conference to solve the world’s ills may he regarded as distinctly in the discard. DICTATORIAL INSPIRATION. The third _ group of conferences is wholly of dictatorial inspiration. In them definite developments may bo noted. At Venice, Austria has been plainly notified through her Chancellor that the period of Italian protection against Nazification has come to an end, and that she must make the best terms she can with Hitler and his cohorts. Not again will Italian troops speed to tho Brenner Pass to maintain Austria’s Government against either an assault from without'or internal revolution. Italy and Germany are now united in a larger partnership, which cannot be endangered by minor complications. Thus Anschluss, in effect or by open acknowledgment, comes again into tho foreground as a prospect for the immediate future. It is doubtful that France will move a single soldier to prevent it. _ The Little Entente has long been disintegrating. The two most powerful of its three members have been hamstrung so far as Austria is concerned, by a skilful policy of bribes and cajolery, backed by economic threats. CHANGE IN AUSTRIA. Thus tho evil day that has loomed ahead for Austria since Dr Dollfuss fell under the bullets of his Nazi assassins now seems really at hand. It probably will not be necessary to move a single battalion across the Bavarian j border. The change will come from i within Austria. j

Apart from turning Italy into a new course regarding Austria, the conference at Venice registered a distinct advantage for Germany by admitting her to an equal partnership with Italy in the economic and political reorganisation of the Danubian Basin, which means a further isolation of Czechoslovakia. It is in this direction that present German expansionist aspirations lie. The Reich is quite willing to mark time in the West while she consolidates her position to the south-east. If she can share the markets and raw material supplies ef the Balkan Danubian States, she will be a long way toward ameliorating some of her present economic troubles. In partnership with Italy the way will be easier. That prospect immediately, sent Nicholas Titulcscu of Rumania hotfoot to Paris in the hope of reviving and strengthening the Little Entente. But France is a long way from the Danube, and has neither funds to spare nor energies to waste in that direction. M. Titulescu has lost his hold in Rumania, and so his mission was wholly a forlorn hope. WEAK NATIONS LOOK TO BRITAIN. With Austria abandoned and Czechoslovakia isolated, the way is now open for the successive engulfment of both. There is nothing to hinder this except a disagreeable repercussion from tho west, and the likelihood of this has diminished. Nevertheless, both Vienna and Prague pray for a speeding up of British rearmament, to’ which they pin their faith as a deterrent factor against aggression. Their only misgiving is about tho pace of its execution. If, in the meantime, Czechoslovakia can keep open her diplomatic side doors to Budapest and Vienna, there is hope that she can survive the intervening months of peril; but Hungary, although she has moved perceptibly away from the German orbit since tho death of Goemboes, is a doubtful quantity. Austria and Czechoslovakia alone are too weak to make even a semblance of a strong front. Since all the fruits of the Venice conference went to Germany, it may he asked what price is to be paid and what was th immediate occasion for the sudden Italian change of front. The answer apparently lay in Spain, and was probably the occasion for General Hermann Goering’s subsequent visit to Rome. It is admitted the subject of the general’s conversations with Mussolini was Spain; the rest is not hard to deduce. THE SPANISH DEADLOCK. The Spanish deadlock, and the utter failure of tho Italian “volunteers” to break it, left Italy in a difficult situation. She must extricate herself, while at the same time insuring a victory, if possible, to General Francisco Franco’s forces. Mussolini dare not risk a general war_ by further efforts. Hitler, however, might conceivably do something to break the deadlock without an open commitment. The aspect of the European chessboard changes constantly, sometimes so quickly and by such devious moves it is difficult to follow them or see in advance the probable outcome. For the moment democracy is holding her own, hut there is need for swift solution of its internal troubles and for top speed in its military strengthening.