ELECTION PROSPECTS

Evening Star, Issue 22192, 21 November 1935, Page 10

ELECTION PROSPECTS

THE WELLINGTON SEATS SOME SURPRISES POSSIBLE [From Odr Correspondent.] WELLINGTON, November 21. Electioneering in Wellington has only brightened up during the last week, and it has been difficult to secure very clear indications of tendencies on the part of the mass of voters. However, the position is now becoming more clarified, though it does not make forecasting any less difficult. Wellington district may provide some electoral surprises. It is four years since there was an appeal _to the electors, and it is long time since there was so embarrassing a choice of candidates. Though there are_ Jong lists in some of the constituencies, it is generally a case of a Labour candidate realising that one particular rival is most to be feared, because electors will sort out the likeliest winners for their ticket, either for the Government or against it. A splitting of the anti-Government vote is the greatest handicap to the official Opposition. This factor is most marked in Wellington East, where Mr Semple, the sitting Labour member, has had to exert himself more anxiously than usual owing to the large amount of campaigning possible among five rivals. Lb® most promising of the other candidates is Mr Mazengarb, a ready, weJJinformed speaker who has been giving his audiences well-restrained comment and ample supporting facts, as a contrast to the free and lively platform exploits of Mr Semple. The fight will be between those candidates, for Mr Gaudin (Independent) and l Mr Duncan (Democrat) are building more on municipal service than is safe in a national contest. Miss Rawcliffe (Communist) and Mr Nicolaus (Commonwealth Land Party) are “ also star teds.” The veteran campaigner, Mr Wright, in Wellington Suburbs, will not this time score another big majority, for he has a clear fight against Mr Butler,an extremely able Labour speaker with good organisation. There is a suggestion that Mr Wright, unbacked by any solid block of party vote, may this time meet defeat for this reason. Wellington North electors find much to interest them in the vigorous unconventional platform work of Mrs Gilmer, an Independent. Judging by campaign Mrs Gilmer should score_ a victory against Mr Chapman, the sitting Labour member, but appearances do not always count, and the issue is really between Mr Chapman and Mr Treadwell, the National candidate, who can give a definite answer to the vitally important question of how they stand in relation to the Government on no-confidence. The lady candidate, carrying independence to the limit, is not prepared to. answer this question except by saying that she will reserve the right to vote for the best measures. If Mrs Gilmer’s support is taken mostly from Labour she will be helping the National candidate, otherwise it will be a case of Mr Chapm.an again winning on a minority vote. Wellington South is regarded as a certainty for the sitting Labour member, Mr M'Keen, whose opponents, Mr Goldsmith (Democrat) and Mr. Toogood (National) are not undermining effectively the experienced work over a long period of the holder of the' seat. Another of the certainties is Mr Fraser for Wellington Central,- against whom Mr Mason (National) is putting up an heroic fight, making good use of the platform. Turning to the surrounding districts, the difficulty of the split vote makes Otaki an uncertain proposition, with the real fight raging between Mr Monk (Nationalist) and Mr Lowry (Labour), and the odds on the latter. Mr Appleton (Independent) is appealing to the voter who in his absence would vote Nationalist, while Mr Bothamley (Democrat) is also scattering voting force ineffectively. There is no doubt about Labour holding Hutt seat with Mr Walter Nash, who has “ nursed ” the position carefully ever since his first election, and faces an opponent with local body experience, but not the sitting member’s knowledge of national affairs. Mr Nash is sufficiently at ease to spare time for some outside campaigning. Wairarapa is said to be safe for the National candidate, Mr Card, as a successor to the Hon. A. D. M'Leod, though the > Labour candidate, Mr Roberts, is doing, well, while two others, Messrs H. C. Thomsen (Independent) and T, W. Macdonald (Democrat) are splitting the vote. In the adjoining electorate of Masterton it is thought probable that Mr Hislop’s great handicap of being a non-resident will deprive the Democrats of representation in Parliament by their leader. The seat has been a fairly safe one in the. past for the Government member, Mr Sykes, and ho should manage to hold it against Mr Hislop and the Labour candidate, Mr Robertson, though under the circumstances his majority is not going to he impressive.