PARTY POSITIONS

Evening Star, Issue 20442, 25 March 1930, Page 6

PARTY POSITIONS

THE IMPORTANCE OF PARNELL ANALYSIS OF SITUATION [SrsC'AL to tub ’Star.’] AUCKLAND, March 21. 3 a preparation for the possibility of a General Election at an early date, all three political parties have been perfecting their organisation, and the work accomplished should prove useful in connection with the by-election for the Parnell seat, necessitated by the resignation of Mr H. R. Jenkins. Immediately following the announcement in the 1 Star ’ last Friday that Mr Jenkins had resigned with a view to recontesting the seat as a Reform candidate, or an Independent, the three parties aroused themselves, anticipating a spirited political battle. Lnquestionably, with the political situation as it is, the light in Parnell should arouse widespread interest. Hard knocks will be taken and received by all the candidates. With Parnell unrepresented at the moment, it is of interest to study the position in the House of Representatives in the light of recent changes in the political situation. Of the three parties Reform remains individually the strongest, the Rt. Hon. J. G. Coates being the leader of an official Opposition' numbering twenty-eight members, if Messrs J. S. Fletcher (Grey Lynn) and W. J. Broadfoot (Waitomo) be regarded as candid friends of the Government, reserving to themselves the right to vote against the United Party on a no-coufidenoe amendment, the Rt. Hon. Sir Joseph Ward, Prime Minister, can count only twenty-four pledged supporters. When ho took office in December, 1928, he had twenty-eight followers, but the Hutt by-election, following the Hou. T. M. Wilford’s appointment to the High Commissiouership, lost him one. Mr Jenkins has since transferred his allegiance, Mr Fletcher has out himself off from the caucus, and Mr Broadfoot, bench mate of the _ Grey Lynn member, has developed a high degree of independence. Labour, on the other, hand, is stronger numerically and qualitatively than at any time since it figured in the political arena as a conscious entity. Reduced from seventeen members to twelve by reason of the Coates wave in 1925, the party added two to its strength by reason of the capture of the former Reform strongholds—Eden (now Auckland’ Suburbs) and Raglan in the two byelections. When the dust and smoke of the battle cleared after the 1928 General Election, Labour was found to be nineteen strong, and victory m the Hutt bv-eloction gave Mr H. E. Holland a “party of twenty on the cross benches. There are three members elected as Independents—Messrs W. J. Poison (Stratford), C. A. Wilkinson (Egmont), and J. T. Hogan (Rangltiki). With them is Mr H. M. Rushworth, the sole representative of the Country Party, and for all practical purposes an independent. Of the quartet, Mr 1 r ogan is the most friendly disposed towards Sir Joseph Ward s party It mav be that Messrs Fletcher and‘Broadfoot will elect to throw m their lot with this critical group m the parliamentary "no man s land when the forthcoming session is fairly started. . . .. ... - Summarised briefly, the position i* that Air Coates can command twentyomht sure votes, Sir’ Joseph Waid twenty-four, and Mr Holland twetj, with six members more or less pleasing themselves in the selection or a division lobby. Thus it will be seen that the holding of Parnell means much to the Government, since the United Party could then muster twenty-five. Aside from all personal merits, ami the qualities of the actual standardbearers in the fight, it would seem at this early stage that the, Parnell byelection will be contested and decided with emphasis on the party question, much more than was the case in the Hutt by-election three months ago. The element of confidence in the United Government’s administration and .policy will loom pre-eminent. Whether ‘independent, or stamped with tlio seal of Reform, Mr Jenkins will be strongly critical of the Government. His recent utterances have left no doubt on that score. Similarly, any other Reform candidate will make the United Government the target of criticism, and in view, of the Labour Party’s aspirations to the Treasury Benches, as expressed recently by Mr Holland, it seems certain that the Official Labour candidate will add his voice to the chorus. Should that old and tried servant of Reform, Mr J. S. Dickson, not secure the official imprimatur, it may be surmised that some cross-currents will disturb the tide of battle in Parnell, as the ex-Seuior Whip of the Coates Party has mad© it clear that he will seek‘the support of his old friends in Parnell whatever happens. With the Reform ranks sundered, a strong Government candidate would have his task greatly simplified should Mr Jenkins hare to fight a lone-handed contest against Government, Reform, and Labour opponents, and possibly two Reformers at that. The struggle would prove a survival of the fittest. It might bo a ease of Wellington East over again, where the Labour candidate, with nearly 1,700 votes less than the total Reform vote, slipped in between the warring Reform opponents. Of course, with a following of less than 1,700 in Parnell, 'Labour’s chance does iiot appear bright, but-the -case of Wellington East is analogous, ui that it, reveals the danger of the split party vote. Whether Parnell is, after all, really in sympathy with Reform at heart, or whether Mr Jenkins’s 1928 victory was a personal success or a vote of confidence in the veteran Liberal Leader, the by-election should prove. A strong man standing in the Government interest should have a splendid chance of retaining the seat for_ United, since the fatal wedge cf divided allegiance in tho other camps will in all likelihood be driven for him before his initial meeting.