DANGER IN MANCHURIA.

Evening Star, Issue 20318, 29 October 1929, Page 8

DANGER IN MANCHURIA.

IvEPonxs of a sinister character are still coming to hand from the Far East. The latest aro that tho Russians are concentrating largo bodies of troops on tho Manchurian, border, and that the Mukden war lord has appealed urgently to tho Canton Government in tho matter. In tho beginning of the present trouble tho Soviet adopted a conciliatory attitude and professed a desire for friendly arbitration ou the points in dispute, but lately there has been no suggestion that negotiations for n settlement were proceeding Any news that has h~cn received relat'd to ac courts of border affrays of more or lass severity which 'may or may not have taken place, 4n which the Russians were reported to be the aggressors. It seems reasonable to suppose that Russia’s dcsiro is to decide the issue with the mailed fist, but outsiders

who have a first-hand knowledge of the position agree that Moscow is hardly likely to proceed to extremes. The fact that Russia is a signatory of the Kellogg Pact renouncing war as an instrument of national policy might not deter her statesmen from launching an offensive in Manchuria; but it is con sidered that there are other weighty reasons that would prevent her leaders from engaging in a policy that would almost inevitably lead to disaster.

There is some significance, it is true, in the appointment of General Blucher to the Far Eastern command, for having recently been chief adviser to the Chinese Nationalist armies ho will know their resources and fighting possibilities. An ambitious soldier of fortune, said to bo a descendant of old Marshal “ Yorwarts,” his desires are likely to be limited by motives of prudence at Moscow. There is one other factor favourable to military operations just now, and that is that the autumn, when the maize crops have been cut, is the best time for campaigning in Manchuria. That period is rapidly passing to the winter season, so that if th© Soviet has any real intention of going to war events will move rapidly in the immediate future. For the rest the dice are loaded against- the Russians. Did the issue lie between the two countries, it would probably be a comparatively easy matter to defeat the Chinese forces. But Japan, with Oriental patience and inscrutability, is waiting in the background. She and China are not the best of friends, and Tokio has no sympathy with Nanking’s policy on the Eastern Railway, but because of her immense interests in Manchuria Japan would not tolerate Russian dominance there. The Russians in a conflict with the Japanese would have no chance. Far from their main base and weighed down by economic handicaps, they would be simply courting defeat. In the earlier proceedings of the present dispute the Chinese made a tactical error in seizing the railway and its accessories and expelling the Russian officials, thus violating a treaty not yet five years old, under which the Manchurians were conceded a joint control of the railway. The excuse was that the Russians were carrying on subversive propaganda. This was no doubt true, but the action of the Manchurians put them “off-side” in the diplomatic sense, and it has resulted 5u the dangerous situation that now exists.