COMMERCIAL WAR

Evening Star, Issue 16350, 16 February 1917, Page 6

COMMERCIAL WAR

SURFACE VESSELS AND SUBMARINES,

THEIR RELATIVE VALUE

HAIG’S PREDICTION.

“GINGER.”

[By Criticps.]

M. .Marcel Hu tin, the well-known French writer, claims to have received figures frpm a well-informed source indicating the efficacy of the anti-submarine, measures, and dispelling all fears for the future! Ho asserts that 112 French and neutral vessels arrived at one French port on Monday, and ho adds: “Germany is so hard put to it to explain the submarine fiasco that she has issued an announcement about the extension of the neutral zone.’’ It is impossible, in he absence of details, to express an opinion as to the value of Al. Ilutin's information, but it is rather premature to talk of a “fiasco” yet, in view of Lord Charles Beresford’s statement on Tuesday that 150.000 tons of shipping had been lost during the past seven days, of which 105.000 tons wore British. ' Lord Charles Bcresford in likely to be much better informed than Al.‘.Marcel ITutin. and his assertion that it is not yet true to say that tile Navy has tire menace '.veil in hand seems corroborates! by the facts.

For the last two .lays the total tonnage of the day s .sinking# ha# not been cabled, and this is very Intel policy, since- it engenders the suspicion that information is being kept back. Hut to-day's list i# very small, and. if it can be relied niton, suggests that the high average of the opening day# of the campaign cannot he maintained. The most signilieant fact of the situation, however, is the supreme eontidemce of Lord Charles lieresford himself, who has proclaimed that he is “certain that within six week# or two months the submarine menace, will he well in hand. ' \V hatever one may think of the Judgment ot Lord Charles Beresford in naval matters, no one will accuse him of erring on the optimistic side. As a matter of fad. he ha> always led the disgruntled and ultra-critical section of the Navv. Everv pessimistic ollicer who thought that the Navy was going to tli-e -dogs (and. of course, the Navy has its full share of these people, who arc always with ns) found in him a. sympathetic listener ready to champion In# views, ft i# always necessary to (o note the temperamental peculiarities of individual# in assessing the value of tlnir opinions on such matters, and it is a tail- inference, from Lord Charles Bercslord s expression of opinion, unit the measures being carried out by the Admiralty are so comprehensive and thorough that even the most pessimistic section of the Navy is satisfied that they will be adequate when in full working order.

-\ CONTRAST IN EFFECTIVENESS. Dol'd Lytt-ons admission, in the .House oi Lords, that “Germany hud the initial advantage in submarining ships and sowing mines” implies that" we allowed the. enemy to get. ahead of us during the Bal-Imir-Jaekson regime, and that prnpevlv comprehensive measures were not adopted until the advent of Sir John Jellicoe at the Admirrjty. This means that we have considerable leeway to make up, and Lord Charles Reresford's hint suggests that it is going to take ns six weeks or two months to do it. Had the menace, and the proper remedies been Lilly grasped early in the war. and adequatelV comprehensive measures initiated, then there, would have hoen no danger. As it is, we shall have to pay the, usual heavy price lor slowness and short-sightedness. * Hut results so far form a stinking illustration of the relative value of the surface vessel and the submarine as .instruments of war. In spite of all, the net reduction of our merchant marine Huns far amounts to only 5 or 6 per cent., according to Lord Curzon. Prom (ha days of the invention of the submarine until to-day there, have been people who are linnly convinced that the submarine must, drive the battleship from the ocean. How it will do this they have not the slightest conception, hut the. .submarine tickles their imaginations in sm-h a way as to completely overpower their judgment. Kven so able a man as Sir IN-ivy Scott expressed the opinion a few months before the- war that we should erase to build Dreadnongliis and build, submarines instead. Had Ids advice, he.-n followed we. should have Mitfered compete and overwhelming national disaster. Consider the contrast between present results and what would have happened then. We have suffered a net reduction of 5 nr o per cent, in run- merchant marine, as against the almost absohne annihilation for practical jiurposrs of the (term,an merchant tlret. ’i he only place ;n the world uliero. German merchant shinning is active is in the Haiti' 1 , the command of which

she m.ves to her capital ships, not to h-m submarines. But suppose that we had foolishly allowed her io get ahead of ns in DiTadiimiglits. and tmsHd In submarines. Our submarines have never yet prevented the fionnau licet from putting to .s"a. any more (Sian Dm Herman submarines have been able to rnauenally interfere with the movements of our own fleet. Tito snliimn'iims of neither Dower were able to affect tlm issue of the Jutland battle or any other fight, flail frerma.ny the superiority in capital ships her flee; would put to sen. guarded on either sid" by torpedo craft. Our submarines would fie held off and our fleet driven back into harbor. Then the enemy's IMid- cruisers would range the British coast, and wine our merchant shipping off the seas, or force it to take refuge in onr own or neutral ports. Starvation would bring about a spot’dy cnlhipse of all resistance. Ye:..

in face of 11:eohvions finis, them

munij-o! of people '.vim dint; ;o the notion Unit the battleship i.s obsolete and the submarine iho coniine weapon. Hy what montal processes rln they readi their conclusion? They do not know themselves. Jt i? just the effect, of a kind of hypnotic suiitC'tion upon the ill-disciplined imaginations of people who arc singularly deficient in critical power. ORKAT KXPKCTATfOXS.

Ce.uera! Bnissiiuff. General Xivelle. ami General Maurice having promised us the rout of the enemy in tip’ spring. Sir Douglas Haig now comes along and adds Ins mvn icst-mcny. It appears (hat wo .shall certainly break the cneiiiy’s front severely and at many points. “ We possess trained armies and c.avaJrv in good working order, so that a dr feat mar he turned into a rant, preventing the poss-i----b’.lilv of tile (lennnns re-mitrem hir.g even tar in the rear.' 1 Our leader.- are certainly amazingly cocksure of the remit. One can only trust Unit ihe thoroughne-s of their mvn preparation ami equipment has. no’ led them to overlook the fact that tinenemy also aio encvgol icaliy preparing. Success will justify their predictions, bat failure will make these promises look ridiculous. The promise that the German from, will hi’ broken “ at many points” need not he taken too literally. The enemy’s line should he broken at two points on as wide a front as possible, it is tot at all probable that our efforts will he dissipated among scattered attacks at many points. That we have largo bodies of lavairv behind the lines waiting fur the day when the (teaman front shall he broken is an oixai secret-: but the statement that wu have now reached our maximum in the matter of munition supplies, and can supply our Allies in excess of their needs, is most welcome news. Presumably ever, the Russians will now have an abundance. Idle announcement that we still need more .artillery, and especially heavy guns, is loss gratifying. Most of ns were hoping that our n were now fully supplied. Still, it may be some weeks yet to the opening of the grand attack, and guns are being piled up rapidly in the meantime. Hero is one point where the enemy score through their submarines. The necessity of arming our merchantmen must delav the provision of an overwhelming artillery for the army. Sir Douglas Haig appears to care little about the danger of Hiudonburg striking first. Our front is being heavily

fortified everywhere, and “if the Germans begin attempting at the points north and south which they consider most favorable, we are ready; thu folly will cost them dearly.'’

THE NEWS

Further small successes arc reported from tho west front, where we captured a styong point east of Grundcourt. and penetrated 250 yards through the defences north-cast of Arras, reaching the third line. In Macedonia important German forces gained a footing on Hill 1,050, east of I’arolvo, on the 12th- inst., but the greater pan- oi the hill was recaptured by Italian counter-attacks. On the Russian front I’cirograd admits the loss of two heights eastward cf Jacobcni. after daylong lighting with varying fortunes, and tho withdrawal of the Russians for threequarters of a mile. Jacobcni lies cast of the Forgo Pass, ami the news suggests that the enemy arc holding that important sector in great strength. About the “blockade" there arc various small items of information. The United Slates Cabinet is still arguing about the question of arming American liners, and there are hints from Renin that the American vessels now on their way to Europe will not be respect,;d if a German submarine gets within range. There is much emphatic, assertion that the "blockado" will be maintained unreservedly, but also sundry hints that Germany is willing to negotiate about passenger truliie.

A QUESTION OF “ GINGER.”

The London correspondent of the. New York ‘World’ professes to iind the House of Common# curiously unimpressed by the new Government, mainly because there are no evidences of the expected " ginger.” Probably the average member of the House, of Commons has no very clear conception of what he exports in the '.cay of *• ginger.’’ No doubt bis hopes on the formation of tho present Government were high, but vague. It is impossible, of course, to judge of the amount of energy which is being put behind the various measures at this distance, hut -so far as the prompt initiation of new and necessary policies is concerned there is no around for criticism. .1 he submarine peril is being grappled will) in a way which models Lord. Charles Iferesford confident that it will be well in hand in sis weeks or two month#; standardised ship# are being built., and the carrying capacity of ships in service has been increased to an extent equivalent to the addition of half a million tons of now shipping; the labor dillicuily has been overcome; practically the whole of our merchant marine is being taken over lev the Government; there has been extensive limitation of war profit#; and 10-ciav comes the news that a Government scheme for taking over the control m (dm coal mines has been matured. In addition, we know that extensive schemes arc being I nought out for dealing with the. problems which will arise when peace come#. In the course of a few day# revolutionary plans have- been carried which would have taken as many months under the old regime. and what more can he expected in the way of "ginger'' it, is diflicult to see. Tim enemy cannot he routed by (he new Government- by a. wave of the hand. That can only come when our plana of attack are matured.