AT LAST!

Evening Star, Issue 16236, 4 October 1916, Page 6

AT LAST!

CEOSSING THE DANUBE. ■ RUMANIA STRIKES. MACEENSEN IN ■ DANGER. POSITION ILLUSTRATED. [By Cnxxicus.] A few days ago Von Bethmann Hollweg was boasting in the German Parliament that the allied plan of crushing Bulgaria and Turkey first and then turning upon the Central Powers had been defeated. Wc are on the ove of ascertaining whether he is correct. 'I he period of reshuffling and waiting is over, and the Russo-Rumanians are striking at last. It is officially .announced both from Rumanian and German sources that the Rumanians have crossed the Danube south of Bucharest, between Kustchuk and Turtukai ; and Bucharest further declares that the Russo-Rumanians have struck in the Dobrudja, driving back Von Mackensen’s centre and right flank, ihus the two moves arcs admirably coordinated, and great resuits may follow. Iho reader will probably call to mind that three distinct strategical plans have hten outlined hero as- open to the RussoKumanians. The first was a simple blow

through (ho Dobrudja, turning the line of the Danube, and crossing that river as the various bridgeheads fell successively into their hands. The second was a blow down the coast, and another over the Danube to the north of Sofia simultaneously, with the object of driving Mackcnsen ever the central Balkan passes and cutting him off from Constantinople by a move "across the eastern passes. The third, suggested when Von Mackcnsen moved up into the Dobntdja, was a movo across the Danube in his rear, with the object of .surrounding him and cutting him up completely. Apparently the last plan has been adopted after all, though when we were ‘.old that Silistria had been abandoned and Mackcnsen driven back almost to his original lino it appeared to be too late. But probably reports from Bucharest were exaggerating, and Mackcnsen is still much higher up in the Dobrudja than we had been led to believe. We have never hoard of the occupation by the Russo-Rtunauians of any important towns, which would indicate ■that the enemy had really been driven back, save the doubtful claim in regard to Silistria. In all probability Mackensen’s line at the beginning of the present stroke still ran from the neighborhood of Silistria to the coast. May it" be so. Tiro farther into the Dobrudja he is, tho greater the chances of cutting' him off. A later cable from Petrograd mentions that, in consequence of tho enveloping move by the Rumanians, Mackcnsen has ordered' the evacuation of 'Silistria and Turtukai. This makes it clear that tho above suggestions are correct, and Silistria was slili held by the enemy. A GERMAN SEDAN POSSTBLE. There is an excellent chance of bringing off a great coup if the scheme is properly carried out, but several conditions are essential. Overwhelming forces must he employed. The army which is crossing the Danube must lie very largo—.say 150.000 or upwards—and it must cross very quickly, i There heed be no difficulty about the latter condition if proper preparations have been made, .as a score or mono, of pontoon bridges, previously put. together behind the islands, coal'd be swoop across and made secure within a few" hours. The crossing must be accompanied bv a smashing blow or. Maekensen's centre and right flank, and a swift puns.uit down the coast, po that tho pursue.!.s will be jumping tighten to his back at, the moment when "ho strikes tho cutting-off force. Finally, the general who is engaged in cutting him of? mu t not make the c-iror of trying to stop Mackcnsen by stretching out his 'lorcos in a long, thin line, with tho object of blocking all openings, or Mackcnsen will go through his line ns if it were made of t'ssuc paper. Ho must keep bis forces in compact, order, ascertain tho exact direction of Mackeascu’s retirement by means of his aeroplanes, and advance to intercept. him. And when contact is established ho should not wait to l;o a!tacked, thus conceding to Mackcnsen ail the momentum of Iris southward rush ; lie should attack himself with the utmost fmy, sailing in tooth and nail, and checking the enemy by the momentum of his own onslaught. THE POSITION ILLUSTRAITtD. Tho accompanying map will make the position dear. It is assumed, in the absence of definite information, that .Mackcnsen held ,» line running from near Silistria to the coast, as indicated by the black line. Tire Rumanian crossing of die Danube is shown by the arrow to the south of Bucharest, and the two other arrows indicate the blows of the Russo-Rumanians upon his centre and right, and the pur- - suit. These moves are an invitation to retreat offered to Mackcnsen which he cannot well decline, or ho will bo surrounded. He will endeavor, therefore, to hold back the Russo-Rumanians to the north noth his rearguards, while matching rapidly south with tire bulk of liis forces to endeavor to clear a passage. Here a special note should be made of the little town of Novi Pazar. Mackcnsen’s right will fall back down the coast, while his loft will naturally fall back almost dire south, being somewhat crowded towards the east by the Rumanian threat, and its iine should run through Novi Razor. Tire Rumanians crossing tho Danube between Rustchnk and Turtukai are almost as near to that place as Mackcnsan’s ’oft wing—about 65 miles as against 55—and when tho various forces are closing upon that place the posit’on may resolve itself into an attempt by Yon Mackcnsen to squeeze ■ through the gap between Novi Pazar and the coast, with the Russo-Rumanians from the north hammering at his rear and the Rumanians from the"Danube striking hard at his flank. If saich is the ''nurse of events, only energy and determination on , the part of Russo-Riunanian leaders will he needed in order to cut him up thor- ; oughly.

On the other hand, Mackensen may not fell hack due south, hut rather in the direction of the westernmost arrow. Establishing strong rearguards, he mav gather the rest of his forces about him in compact order and march directly to meet the cut ting-off force, with the intention of trying to smash it before the northern forces can effectively intervene. All then will depend on the nerve and resolution of the Rumanian general. If ho is intimidated by Mackensen’s reputation and hesitates, he will probably get a thorough, mauling; but if ho keeps his forces in compact order and sails right into him, then such a manffiuvro should ruin Mackensen completely. It should enable the Rumanian cavalry to swing right round him, and the momentum of his rush would be stopped by the counter-stroke; while the Russo-Rumanians from the north should pile on to his rear almost simultaneously. _ Incidentally, there should be another crossing of the Danube by a Rumanian force further west, with the object of ' intercepting any attempts from the direction of Sofia to extricate Mackenseu. NOT WORRYING ABOUT HINDENBURG. It is evident from the present move that the Russo-Rumanians are confident that they have the measure of H.indenburg, and are not worrying about anything he may do. London points out that Gorman silence about Hermannstadt is most significant after Saturday’s arrogant claims- That is true. It was shown here on Monday that there, wa.s nothing to indicate anything worse than a Rumanian repulse, and apparently the enemy are checked. In one of yesterday’s later cables they claimed successes to the north of Orsova, and a counteretroka by 11 indenburg by that route is quite probable. But there is tho armor-

clad range of the Transylvanian Alps for the enemy to negotiate' before they can threaten Rumania, and at Orsova' itself they would be over 180 miles from Bucharest. So there would be ample time to ret up adequate reinforcements before the threat became a .serious one. It is not intended to suggest that Hindcnbtirg is incapable of a counter-stroke—though it is beginning to look as if lie has failed to find the necessary forces—but that such a counter-stroke can bo met and defeated quits comfortably by tho Russo-Rumanians. Tho latest developments have once again shown that we can trust the Russian,strategists. BRUStiILOPF BUSY. All accounts agree that Brussiioff is striking again in Galicia. The Germans comment apprehensively upon the increased power of his artillery, and petrograd is of opinion that the new “push” will extend north and south of the Lemberg region, embracing tho battlefields of Kovel and Vladimir-Volynski. It will bo a gratifying success if Lemberg is captured, but tho chief importance of Brussiloff's attacks at present is that they tend to keep Hind cubing busy and prevent him from interfering with effect in tho Balkans. When the Balkans are overrun Lemberg and Galicia will fall into our hands like ripe plums. So, given success in the Balkans, wo can look with equanimity upon results elsewhere for tho present. THE WESTERN FRONT. The capture of Eaucourt I’Abbaye is continued, though the enemy have again secured a footing in some of the buildings. An unofficial cable from Paris declares that the British established their lines on Warkmccurt Hill, to the north of Eaucourt i'Abhaye, the last eminence covering Bapaume; but that is doubtful in view of Sir Douglas Haig’s admission that a part of Eaucourt I’Abhaye is still held by tho enemy. Symptoms of demoralisation are apparent in a raptured Bavarian army order, and tho enemy are getting apprehensive of another stroke (o the north, tho bomuaixhnent now being continuous in Flanders. It has all along been held hero that the s'omme offensive is merely a preliminary to <<ur ioul big effort, and that is about tho only impoi tint strategical conception put forward in these notes which still remains to ho justified, Justification will come. Tho state of our preparations will decide whether we deliver a grand blow to (he north during tho few remaining weeks cl tolerable weather, or wait till next, spring. Rub tho only thing which is’ likely to spoil ibo views set forth hero as to the ofl’t-nsivo in the west is a voluntary retirement by the enemy.