DISPOSITIONS

Evening Star, Issue 16082, 6 April 1916, Page 6

DISPOSITIONS

AS AGAINST THEM

AND RELATIVE FORCE.

OUR STRONG HAND.

GERMAN PHYSIQUE

EXPLOSIVES.

[By Curncus.]

Ycftercby ivc had from Colonel Rcpington tamo interesting figures as to the distribution of the German forces in the. West. Xot, the colonel is a military writer-of reputation, lie is'at present visiting the French front, and he has had talks, with the most prominent leaders on tho sale of tho Allies, with many of whom he_ is or. terms of close friendship. It is a- fair inference, therefore, that tho figures he giver, represent, the opinions expressed to him hy tho allied loaders, and are tho estimates reached by the allied Staffs after weighing all the available information. That being so, they possess an interest and significance much greater than if they had been the ordinary guesswork of tho average correspondent. Of course, if they are the official estimates, that is no guarantee of reliability. It is the business of the Germans to conceal their numbers from their opponents, and armies in the hold often find themselves ntterlv misled as to the numbers opposed to them. That is the inevitable result- of the fog of war; but if the figures are official that is at lease, a guarantee that they arc the best available, and founded cu the most reliable information.

According to Colonel Repington the Germans have 50 divisions in front of Verdun and 34 divisions before the British line, wh.ile the vest of the Gorman front is only thinly held. He infers from the greater number of divisions in front or tho British that the Gormans either intend to attack the British or are afraid of being attacked by them. There need he no doubt that the Germans foresee, the possibility of a British offensive, hut it can hardly be admitted that tho figures ci'-cn justify the inference that tho Hermans intend to attack the. British. The total length of the Verdun front, against which tho Germans aro said to have 30 divisions massed, is only about 48 miles, whore is that of the British, against which, we are told they have massed 54 divisions, or only four more, is SO miles. The total length ol i!m French line is about double that of the British, and even if the rest oi the German line is lint thinly held, Gie total German forces pitted against the Trench must he very much larger than those over against the British.

Now, a division in these days' is a very ur certain thine. Units often go into battle with not a half of tlmir nominal strength available, and great changes mav iiavo been made, and probably have been made, in the German organisation since the outbreak of war. Moreover, even before the war, some of the German divisions had three brigades and some onlv two. It is highly probable, however, that the two-brigade divisions would be marie ii)) to three hrieedcs from the reserve immediately on the outbreak of the wav. V\e -will give the Germans the full benefitof Colonel Repir.cton’s figures by assuming that all their divisions are three-brigade divisions. Now, the full strength of a German division of three brigades before the war was 21,000, and the total strength of the 54 divisions in front of the I’,litis!!, therefore, would he 714,000. Let ns deal still more generously with Colonel iiepington's figures, anti assume that snn-plement-avy troops of various kinds will oring the total to somewhere near a million. As far hack ns November 2, nr five months ago, Air Asquith announced that there were nearly 1,000,000 Jjriti.sh troops in France. dime then the number has Leon steadily increased. That the increase has been very great may ho inferred from the fact- tha-t we have more, than doubled the length of our lino since then. It would not- b-' .safe to asrnmo that wo have more than doubled the strength of our forces, because the increased ellleiency which has come with the passage, of time has justified us in holding a greater length of lino with a given number of troops, lint wo may wifely infer that we have at least a million and a-qiiartcr of men in France, and perhaps a million and a-half. Colonel Ilcpingtou is hardly justified in inferring from the fact that the Germans have something less than a million men in front of the .British that they intend to attack all hat impregnable positions defended hv troops which may outnumber them by anything np to 50 tier cent. This, of course, is not a prediction that they will not attack, since in their present desperate and impotent- position they are likely to undertake any wild venture. AT YKIIUUN. Colonel Repington’s figures imply that the Gormans are employing 630,000 men or mote at- Verdun along a. trout of perhaps 48 miles, or rather more than 15,000 per mile, as against about 8,000 per mile lor tho British front. A later message, from Colonel Itepir.gtou describes tho German prisoners captured at Verdun ns “ ignoble and unmilitary-lookinsr, witli brutish, horublc faces—men apparently capable of any eiime. Many of them are undersized, and it seems as if anybody, trained or untrained, has been called out.' 1 These remarks are again more interesting and significant than they would have been had they come from the average correspondent, both becauso Colonel Reping! on in au experienced military man, with tho practised eye which is accustomed to slimming up tho points of a, recruit, and because he nas always taken tho most conservative view of German losses. In opposition to Hilaire Belloc, who has long perceived, or persuaded himself that he perceived, that the German reserves were on tho point of exhaustion, Colonel Bepingtou lias taken die view that Germany still has ample re--erves. Obviously, if his present asser- | ions that tho German prisoners are brutish, undersized, and ill-trained ho correct, then ha was less near tho truth than BcToe. But one would like to know if the prisoners he inspected were fresh from battle, cr it they hud been washed and pulled together again. Prisoners freshly captured are apt to be dirty, dishevelled, depressed, ami exhausted, wtih drooping shoulders and hanging heads. They do not seem to till out their clothes or fill tho eye. But wash and feed them, and a marvellous transformation in appearance may result, Tho rested and refreshed prisoner may stand upright, with squared shoulders, and fill the eye in a surprisingly different manner. That is why tho evidence on these matters ef uncritical and narellecting witnesses is so utterly worthless. (July when iho Allies develop common sense enough to run the tape measure over their prisoners shall we get really satisfactory evidence as to whether there has or has not been a marked deterioration in the average physique of tho German forces. The French report that successive Gorman attacks south of Douaumont, delivered after a heavy bombardment, were repulsed with great slaughter, the enemy being driven back in disorder to Chauffeur Wood, while the French further progressed north of Gaillette Wood. In a further message Colonel Repington, after pointing out that the rest of the German lino has been drained of troops in order to save the Crown Prince from failure at Verdrfn, declares that but for his birth that leader would have been deprived of hit command long ago. Evidently the critics are gradually realising that the

attack on Verdun was a gross strategical blunder. Fancy draining the whole line of troops in order to attack a fortress the capture of which would leave things very much as they were ! NEW EXPLOSIVES.

It is officially announced that the Zeppelin bombs contained a new explosive which causes blue flames, smoke, and ultra-sweet non-injurious fumes. It is concluded that the Gormans arc using wood fibre instead of cotton, and that they have been compelled to invent a substitute for nitro-idyccrim’. If the

shortage of cotton has compelled .them to resort to wood fibre the quality of their explosives is likely to suffer, as that is far inferior to cotton for the making of explosives. Many months ago officers on tho west front wore freely expressing tho opinion that there had been a marked deterioration in tho quality of .tho German explosives; but it is difficult to know what importance to attach to such opinions, as so much depends on the temperament of those who hold them. Other reports of the Zeppelin raids comment on tho terrific strength of tho explosive shells, and this does not point to deterioration; but tlicir strength may bo due to their size rather than to their quality. Tho marksmanship of our anti-alt-craft gunners is freely complimented; but, unfortunately, it would'take tens of thousands of guns to adequately protect tho whole of the United Kingdom, no matter what their efficiency. Even if the coast was completely lined with gnns it would still be possible for the Zeppelins to slip over them undetected, either hy rising to a grout height or by taking advantage of passing clouds. ° THE RUSSIANS.

The floods aro still rising on the Russian front, and tho Germans south of Dvinsk were compelled to quit some of their trendies, being fired on by tho Bussians "bile doing so. Tho retirement of Gopoval Ivanolf from the command of tho southern armies will he a big loss to Russia, as ha has _ displayed ° masterly and., having been in command in that region since the opening of tho war. he had acquired a thorough familiarity with it. He is succeeded" by General Alexis Brousiloff, a cavalry* leader with an experience dating from the Bussoiuikish War of 1877, and a successful general from tho opening of the present war. On the Caucasus front the Russians are advancing in a south-westerly direction in the Mush-Bitlis region. That may mean that they are making for Sairt which stands at the. head of tho 'road loading down tho left bank of the Tigris to Mosul, or for Diarbekr. on the caravan route to Nesihiu. the latter place beiim on Ihe northern lurkish line of communication with Mosul and Bagdad.