GETTING READY.

Evening Star, Issue 16037, 14 February 1916, Page 6

GETTING READY.

FEELING TOWARDS MONASTIC BULGARIA'S DISMAL PROSPECTS FIGHTING ON THE TIGRIS. DIPLOMATIC DIFFICULTIES. [By Criiictjs.] „ We are now halfway through February, and about six weeks or a couple of months irom now the allied offensive in the Balkans should become due. It may be rather earlier or later, according to whether spring is early or late this year, but the. premonitory symptoms are beginning to come along. Strong French forces are reported to have crossed the Vardar Topshin, which is almost due west of .Salonika, a mile or two to the north of tho spot wliero the Monastir railway crosses the river. According to some reports the brench have seized and are fortifying positions on the right bank; but a Salonika, eablo declares that there have been cavalry reconnaissances onlv, and no occupation. The truth of the matter appears to be this : It has often been pointed out in these notes that the chief disadvantage of occupying a defensive position like that at (Salonika- is that if tho enemy should attack it and draw entrenched Jineo v« ll i lfc til€re ' wouW be considerable difficulty in deploying when fresh reinforcements rendered an offensive possible, this difficulty might have had to be overcome by a fresh landing, always a difficult and dangerous operation in face of the enemy. Rut the wider the front occupied, the more easy deployment is. So as the Anglo-French are constantly receiving reinforcements, we may expect them to gradually extend their front in anticipation of the coming offensive. Moreover, they will need the Salonika-Monastir line for the advance of their left wino-. It may ho remembered that the Italians have landed at least 80.000 anon at Valona, on the coast of Southern Albania, This force will advance towards Monastir in co-operation with the left flank of the Anglo-French. We. may expect, ' therefore, as thfe allied armies become stronger and the time for taking the offensive approaches, that our forces will feel their way towards Monastir. seizing and safeguarding the bridges. But thero is not likely to be an offensive on a lar"-e scale until the snows- melt on the mountains unless our hand should be forced by an attack upon Rumania. BIG EVENTS PENDING.

Reports from Rumania continue good. The condition of the country is said to resemble that_ of Italy before' she entered ■the war. Military preparations are openly in progress, and it is asserted that there is no longer any doubt as to their ultimate object. Big events are pending. A correspondent declares that the Rumanian question has been seriously discussed between the Kaiser and King Ferdinand, and there need be little doubt about that. We may bo confident that the question of anticipating events by an attack upon Rumania has been seriously discussed : but that would be a big decision, not to be taken without much searching of heart The military correspondent of the 'Morning Post' is of opinion that tho failure of the enemy to attack Salonika was due to the appearance of 250,000 Russian troops on the Rumanian frontier. Certainly we heard a good deal about those troops: but were they real, or only bluff' \ German communique declared that thev were bluff. \\e may hope, however, that when next the reports of a Russian concentration on the Rumanian border Win to come through they will be the forerunner's ot energetic action. A diversion from the north coupled with the deployment of large Italian forces, would probably give us something like a walkover in the Balkans.

UNLESS SHE IS ATTACKED. The Turks have completely withdrawn trom Macedonia, according to a Paris cable sending all their available forces a o!l™ cnem y in Macedonia do not exceed 200.000 men. There is nothing very improbable in this. If tho Turks have not already withdrawn, it is in our power to compel them to do so later Wo have a huge garrison in Egypt, consisting of the Gallipoli troops sent there to refit and to guard the canal during the dancer period. Uio test of our strategical direction will como at the time of tho grand offensive, when we shall seo if our leaders possess the insight to occupy the Turks and safeguard Egypt at the came time either by an advance upon Adrianople in the Balkans or an attack upon Smyrna, J.ho best arrangement would be to undertake both attacks with the aid of a big Italian force. Assuming that Bulgaria can put 400,000 men into the field —which is a generous assumption, because she must have reserves—and remembering that vast deductions must be made from this total lor guarding her Rumanian frontier, her coast lines, and her lines of T„ m ;i 3tion ' il is doubtful if the figure of 200,000 enemy troops in Macedonia, is much under-estimated, even allowing for such help as tho Austro-Germans are"able to render.

the Lulganan War .Minister has declared in an interview that when the Salonika campaign is ended the war will be over for Bulgaria- unless she is attacked in the Balkans. The reference to the .'Salonika, campaign is merely bluff Can Bulgaria doubt that she will" be attacked? Wo have heard manv times before that sl, o considers that, "ha.ving cot all she wants, she ought to be allowed to stand out. But this is no card came Bulgaria will not be allowed to withdraw from the table with her winnings now that hick has begun to turn. Deep down in the Bulgarian mind there is awakening a realisation of the awful blunder that has been committed. They see themselves threatened with the necessity of standing up almost alone against overwhelming allied forces. No wonder thev would like to draw out with their winnings. There are reports that Bulgaria has approached the Entente with proposals for a separate peace, and this is highly probable, remembering what Balkan politics are. But the Entente Powers are bound in honor to Serbia. DEEDS AND WORDS. The enemy dislodged tho Russians at a heavy cost from a height which they had occupied at Tsebroff, in Galicia. A Russian regiment recaptured it in a torrific attack, and held it against three desperate counter-attacks. This is official, and may be relied, upon; but there is a good deal of unofficial gossip coming through irom Petrograd in the form of news which should bo turned down. The statements to £he effect that the Russians have now a great superiority in guns and ammunition are probably correct, but the stories of Czernowitz being threatened and tales of a. steady Russian advance are worthless. Successes are always promptly reported officially, _ and there is no evidence that the Russians are advancing at all, while Czernowitz is not yet in serious danger. Latest cables report continuous bufc as yet indecisive fighting on . tho Bessarabian front. GREAT GERMAN " VICTORY." The German Admiralty announces that, the German torpedo-boats encountered' several British cruisers on the Dogger Bank and chased them, sinking the new cruiser Arabis and hitting a second cruiser with a, torpedo. The commander of the Arabis was rescued, with two other officers and 21 men. It turns out that the "cruisers" were four humble minesweepers, of which three returned safelv. This curiously barefaced lying j 3 a bad sign for Germany. It points to a moral condition which needs to be soothed by falsehoods, much as the nerves of an opium-eater need to be soothed by opium. And the appetite in this case also grows with what it feeds on. German statesmen will soon begin to find their little lies ineffective, and will have to resort to extravagances more and more audacious, until * hj

thoy become too open, gross, and palpable to deceive anyone. The Dogger Bank is 200 miles, or a night's run, from Heligoland. .Such raids cannot altogether be prevented, and our men would doubtless like them to occur more frequently. • TOWARDS THE SHATT-EL-HAI. A British detachment made a reconnaissance from the Tigris along the Shatt-el-Hai Canal, but did not find any Turks. While they were returning from Nasigrah, however, they were attacked by the Arabs, who had hitherto been friendly. Apparently the attack was a p treacherous one. We had 373 casualties, and the enemy lost over 300 killed alone. Later a punitive column surprised the Arabs and destroyed four villages. The Turks claim that an attempt to advance from the right bank of the Tigris was repulsed. Whether this refers to the same fighting is not clear. The Shatt-el-Hai is a branch of the Tigris which leaves that river at Kut-el-Amara and runs almost due south to the Euphrates. Perhaps 10 miles south of the present position of the British relieving force, a water course runs from the Tigris in a south-westerly direction to the Shatt-el-Hai, joining that branch several miles to the north of the email town of Kut-el-Hai. Possibly that is the canal referred to. It has been previously pointed out hero that if the strength o*f ,the Turkish position near EA Owasa, at the bend of the Tigris 20 miles to the north-east of Kut-el-Amara, should be such as to render its forcing inadvisable, tho relieving force may turn it by crossing- to tho Shatt-el-Hai and advancing up that branch. The reconnaissance in that direction may be the preliminary to such a move, or merely a feint to persuade the Turks that the move is intended with tho object of inducing them to divide their forces. The practicability of the move of tho Shatt-el-Hai is a matter of transport and tho condition of the ground. If sufficient transport is available to enable our force to cut loose from the Tigris, and the rains are not such as to render the ground too muddy, the movement "will present no serious difficulties. The heaviest rain falls in January, and as we are now at tho middle of February we may hope for more favorable weather. The rain causes an abundance of vegetation on tho naturally fertile soil at this season, a fact which should much facilitate transport during tho dry spells. It is at this season that the .Arabs prefer to travel and to settle their tribal quarrels. Perhaps it was the associations of the season that led to their recent attacks on the British. UNEASY RELATIONS.

There is considerable anxiety in America over her relations with Germany. Briefly summarised the position is this : America is demanding that unarmed vessels shall not be sunk without warnina: but Germany, who is ready to settle with America over the incidents of the past, finds herself in the difficulty that it is impossible for her submarines to be certain beforehand which merchant vessels are armed or unarmed. If thev approach armed vessels to ascertain thev run the risk of being sunk. That is the reason for the present bluster from Germany as to the awfnl things she intends to do to those armed merchantmen. America wishes- the Entente Powers to facilitate a settlement by disarming their merchantmen, but those Powers have no interest in making things easy for Germany. Nor can they regard the series of No'tes that America has sent to Germany as an. adequate substitute for guns. For the rest, Germany has done her best or her worst against our shipping, and we j:an afford to treat her threats with contempt. If tho inability of her submarines to distinguish between armed and unarmed merchantmen leads to trouble with America so much tho better for us. We have no in rescuing Germany from the difficulties of her own creation.