POLITICAL PRESENTMENTS.

Evening Star, Issue 8407, 7 January 1891, Page 1

POLITICAL PRESENTMENTS.

The prevailing calm in politics may be taken to prelude the storm whloh will assuredly burst when Parliament meets. He would be a prophet who could predict what then will eventuate; but the probabilities, we think, are against the Opposition—constituted as we must assume the party to be at present—being able to cunmand a working majority. If, however, it should be found that they can do so, their troubles would then begin in earnest. In the first place Mr Ballance, who appears to be accepted as the enly possible Premier, will find himself face to face with great difficulties in choosing his colleagues; since out of at least a dozen aspirants to office, all with, in their own opinion, unexceptional claims, he can only select four—the nnmber of salaried Ministers being now limited to six, one of whom is expected to be in the Legislative Council, in order to conduct the Government business in that Chamber. Mr Ballance would be further constrained to take two members representing North Island constituencies and two from the South ; or, assuming that the Hon. Mr P. A. Buckley was offered, as he probably would be, a portfolio, one from the North and three from the South. Mr John M'Kenzie could not possibly be passed over, and be would certainly be Minister of Lands ; whilst the other two South Island seats in the Cabinet would have almost of necessity to be allocated to Mr W. P. Reeves and Mr Seddon. Major Stewabd, as a possible claimant for consideration by his party, may be disposed of, always supposing that the Opposition are dominant when the House meets, by his election to the chairmanship of committees. The labor members, 01 rather delegates, are so powerful numerically that they have clearly the right to due representation on any Ministry Mr Ballance may form; and this right, it may be taken for granted, will be insisted on. There remain among probable Ministers Mr Joyce, Mr C adman, Mr Fish, Mr G. Hutchison, Mr Fishbb, and Mr Taylob. A veritable embarras de richesses for Mr Ballance to choose from, but to at least one of whom he would be bound to give a portfolio. So much for possibilities, if the Fates decree Jhat the affairs of New Zealand are to be handed over to the member for Wanganui. From the latest authentic accounts, ic almost seems certain, we much regret to think, that Sir Habby Atkinson, owing to the state of his health, will not be able to stand the strainof leading the Honse; nor is he again likely to take an active part in debate. If the Ministerial party have a majority, a reconstruction of the Cabinet is unavoidable ; and the great question, under existing circumstances, is : Who shall be Premier ? Secondary to this must be the consideration whether it might not be advisable to reconstitute the Cabinet by the substitution for some of the present members other honorable gentlemen, who, whilst prepared to support the principles of the present Ministerial party, are more pronounced in the exposition of their liberal views. It is beyond doubt that several of the leading minds on the Opposition side of the House regard with anything but satisfaction the prospect of a Ballance Administration, which would essentially be, as when the honorable gentleman was formerly in office, a North Island Ministry: and DollCE._.jodjdhßbll?!9-- luterests and obstructive to the settlement of the Native lands. Mr Ballance, again, is open to suspicion in respect to his ideas as to the disposal of the Crown lands. He is known to approve of Sir Robebt Stout’s fads on this and other questions; and there is not the confidence, even among his own particular adherents, in his possessing that ability as a statesman which the Premier shoold command. Not a few members, we believe, who do not approve the present Ministry would be glad to find an alternative to Mr Ballance; and we are inclined to think that in this direction lies the way out of existing complications. We confess, however, that we regard neither with satisfaction nor hope, as to the results, the reconstruction of the Ministry nnder Mr Bryce, who has never exhibited the qualities essential in a party leader, although a man of high principle and sterling honesty of purpose. His manner is deficient in suavity—is, indeed, rather repellent than otherwise—and he has no understanding whatever of tact. Rumor points to the possibility of Mr Rolleston taking the lead ; and, in many respects, he would be a very fit man, being thoroughly in touch with the settlers of the Colony, holding very advanced political views, and possessing the administrative faculty in an eminent degree. It is very questionable, however, whether he would undertake-the responsibility ; and, possibly enough, he would prefer the Speaker’s chair if the opportunity were afforded. Mr Rolleston, we feel convinced, would be very generally acceptable as Premier; and such are his views that he could take to himself colleagues from almost every section of the House, except, perhaps, the very extreme RndicAla, Most conspicuous in the political career of the honorable geutleman have been the liberal amendments of the land laws introduced by him as Minister of Lands, and the successful efforts at establishing special settlements in Canterbury, which distinguished his tenure of the office of Superintendent. He would have been able, in this latter capacity, to have done much more but for the land laws of the province, for which he was in no respect responsible, and which tended to throw large areas into private hands. It seems to be qnite evident that, if Ministers decideon reconstruction previous to or immediately upon the opening of Parliament, the selection of their candidate for the Speakership of the House most be a matter subsidiary. In the present critical state of affairs it would never do to shelve Mr Rolleston if there is any reasonable prospect of his taking the lead. What we have said on the political situation and the more immediate prospects is based, from the necessity of the case, on the merest conjecture, and possibly “ the wish ” is in some respects “ the father to the thought. ”