AUSTRALIA'S MEAT SUPPLY.

Evening Star, Issue 7787, 7 December 1888, Page 4

AUSTRALIA'S MEAT SUPPLY.

Important statistics,

The subjoined paper on the meat supply and consumption in Auslmlia, p--pared by Mr T. A. Coghlan, Government t,uitistician of New South Wales, was recently laid on the table of the Legislative Assembly in Sydney : Government Statistician's Office,

Sydney, October 24, 1888. Sir,—Some time Inst year I made an investigation as to the future of the meat supply of these colonies; but, as you are aware, I had for the most part to work on information which was very imperfect. Since then I have gone into the matter more thoroughly, working upon data much more reliable than was before at my disposal, and with the gtcat advantage of being able to distinguish the consumption of b'eef from that of mnttoti, Mich is of first importance in this inquiry. I find the average consumption of meat is practically what I assumed it was, but the quantity of beef, instead of i being only slightly more than that of mutton, is practically twice as great. The cast of cattle I make from an extended series of computations to be within a shade of 11 1-6 per cent., and of sheep rather more than 15 per cent. The only point regarding which there is uncertainty is the rate at which cattle increase. There is strong evidence in favor of not more than 1 per cent, being taken as the ratio of increase, bu,t even if the rate he taken at 2, or even 2J per cent., the rcsiilt is hot greatly affected, as will be Been from the accompanying calculations,—Yours faithfully, T. A. CoGHLAN. THE STATISTICIAN'S KEPOKT. The data required for an exact investigation of the prospects of the meat supply of Australia are—(a) Rate at which population tends to increase. (b) Present and prospective consumption of meat. (c) Rate of increase of stock. (d) Cast or proportion of stock annually fit for market.

The figures in the following computations refer to the whole of continental Australia unless otherwise mentioned. The stock resources of New Zealand and Tasmania have not been considered, as the circumstances of the first-named colony, and perhaps of Tasmania, differ materially from those of the other divisions of tho group. (a) increase of population. The population of Australia was— At census of 1871 .. .. 1,560,592 1831 .. •• 2,130,912 At close oi 1887 .. •• 2,800,878 The annual increase between tho two census years was therefore at the rate of 3.15 per cent., and from the census of 1881 to the close of the year 1887 at the rate of 4.07 per cent. The ratio of increase has advanced considerably since the last census year, and for the coming decade may be assumed to be not less than 4 per cent, per annum. (B) CONSUMPTION OF MKAT, The total consumption of meat can only be exactly determined for two colonies, New Houth Wales and Victoria ; but as about 77 per cent, of the whole population are located in these colonies, it will be obvious that inexactness in regard to the other colonies will not very greatly affect computations based on the known demand of the principal members of the group. Jiy consumption is meant the number of stock slaughtered for local use only ; meat for export purposes has therefore not been taken into account. The object of this inquiry is to determine the amount of the present surplus meat production, and how long this surplus will continue, and as an export trade can only be maintained concurrently with a surplus, directly the local demand becomes level with the supply an export trade ceases to be practicable. Hence the reason of omitting from consideration the quantity of stock killed for export.

The consumption of stock in Victoria was :

Yoar. Cittle. Slicup. ISS2 iZOJ.Ott 1,<J10,750 18S3 245,328 1,762,121 18S4 234.420 1,839,601 ISBS 218.378 1,751,03!". ISBG 210,'209 2,145,823 This gives the average yearly consumption per inhabitant for the five years as 2.0 sheep, 0.25 cattle ; but as the demand for beef appears to be declining, the average has been taken at 0.224 cattle per head. The consumption in New South Wales during 18S7 was practically the same as in Victoria, and was also the mean of former years—viz., 1.9 sheep and 0.25 cattle. In Queensland the consumption is not known, but from such information as there is to hand, it would appear that the annual requirements per inhabitant are extremely high, being probably not less than 2.0 sheep, 0.4 cattle. The total consumption in the three colonies, estimating on the population at the close of 1887, would be :

The average consumption for these colonies is therefore, approximately, 2.0 sheep and 0.26 cattle. These figures may be safely adopted as the consumption per head of Australia, for whether South Australia or Western Australia consume more or less than above given, the average of Australia will not be sensibly affected. (C) INCREASE OF STOCK. The ratio at which the flocks and herds of the colony tend to increase is a very doubtful item. An inspection of the returns accompanying this paper will show that there was a decrease in cattle year by year from 1881 to 1886, and a somewhat similar decrease in sheep from 1883 to 1886. The following table gives the number of stock in five-vear periods since 1863, not for any individual year, but the average of the five years named :

J „ m. Average No. Average No. From. To. 0 f Sheep- o! Cattle. 1863 .. 1867 29.725,925 3,625,526 1888 .. 1872 39,482,986 4,017,818 1873 1877 47.8*8,530 6,056,523 1878 .. 1882 58,277,404 7,361,412 1883 .. 1887 68,282,577 7,458,841 The mean annual increase for the above periods was: — From. To. Sheep. Cattle. Per cent. Per cent, 1863-1867 .. 18G8-1872 5.84 2.08 1808-1872 .. 1873-1877 3.91 8.55 1873-1877 .. 1878-1882 4.03 3.98 1878-1882 - 1883-1887 3.22 0.26

If there were any regularity in the above, the rate for the last period would naturally be preferred as indicating the probable future consumption. There is, however, not only no. regularity, but the rates are conspicuously irregular. As regards sheep, the rate for the first live years—viz., 5.84 per cent.—is obviously high, and not likely to be again experienced over any considerable number-of years. The last three ratios are more regular, and it has appeared preferable to adopt the mean annual increase from 1873-1877 to 1883-1887 as the probable rate at which the sheep of Australia are likely to increase. This ratio is 3.62 per cent, per annum. With respect to cattle the case is very different, and the adoption of any fit»ure is not a matter of calculation but of opinion. To my mind 1 per cent, is about the ratio which would fit the present conditions of these colonies, and is the mean rate of annual increase since 1880; but, as will presently appear, the question is not very greatly affected even if 2.5 per cent, be taken as the prospective rate.

(d) cast of stock. By the term "cast" is to be understood the number of stock fit for market or which oould be profitably fattened—i.e., the number at that age when it would be more profitable to send them for slaughter than retain them for breeding in the case of cows and ewes, or for further growth in the case of non-breeders.

To arrive at the cast I have assumed an ideal herd, in which there are 10,000 females of various ages, from calves to cows eight

I years old, with a sufficient number of bulls. I have assumed that out of the progeny of I this herd the bullocks become part of the oast at five years and the cows at eight years,. I have also assumed that, the average number of calves obtained from 100 cows will be 70, and that half the calves will bo females and half males. The death rate of all cattle has been assumed as 5 per cent, in each year ; no account is taken of the effect of droughts and other causes of exceptional loss, nor is such needed. Whatever diminution a prolonged drought may inflict upon a herd, such will affect every description of stock in such a manner that, though the total number may be considerably reduced, the percentage of the cast will not be greatly affected, rising in years when the proportion of calves is small to 2 per cent, above, but, on the other hand, falling in years when there is a large number of young stock to 1 per cent, below the average given hereunder. At the end of fifteen years the original herd will have disappeared, and the surviving progeny of the 10,000 cows would be 42,380, after allowing for cows and bullocks sent to market and an annual loss of 5 per cent, on all stock. Of this number 4,725 would be cows eight years and bullocks five years old. These would be the cast, and represent slightly over 11 1-6 per cent, of the whole herd.

Similarly for sheep—after allowing for wethers sent to market at four years and ewes at seven years, and for an annual loss of 5 per cent, on all sheep—the cast would be rather more than 15 per cent., which, though apparently high, is borne out by the experience of New South Wales, wherein Dearly 60 per cent, of the sheep of Australia are depastured. TOTAL MEAT CONSUMPTION. The total population of Australia at the middle of 1888 was 2,858,000, and the consumption at the rate of 0.56 cattle and two sheep per head would be — 2,858,000 x 0.26 = 743,080 cattle 2,858,000 x 2 = 5,716,000 Bhccp. While the cast of stock for 1888 will be— Cattle.. 7,916,520 at 111-6% .. 884,000 Sheep .. 79,679,235 dt 15% .. 11,051,885

Deducting the consumption from the cast would leave a surplus of— Supply. Demand. Surplus. Cattle .. .. 884.0C0 743,080 141,000 Sheep .. .. 11,951,885 5,716.000 6,285,885 The question of meat supply, therefore, resolves itself shortly into this: How long will a yearly supply of 884,000 cattle, increasing at the rate of 1 per cent., meet the food demands of a population increasing at 4 per cent., and at present requiring 743,080 head of cattle annually? Also, how long will a supply of 11,951,885 sheep, increasing at the rate of 3.62 per cent., meet a demand for 5,716,000, increasing at the rate of 4 per cent. ? As regards tho supply of cattle, 884,000, increasing at 1 per cent., will be overtaken by 743,080, increasing at 4 per cent., in si* years. If, however, a greater rati; of increase than 1 per cent, obtain, say IJ, \{, 2, or 2i per cent., the times will be as follow :

At 1} per cent, supply wiP be overtaken in C.6 yeira. At U do do ao do 7.1 do At 2 do do do do 9.0 do At?J do do do do 12.0 do

Whether the higher or the lower rate be adopted makes litty) practical difference, and it would seem from the above computations that if the present rate of consumption continue the demand for beef will overtake the supply in six to twelve years from the close of the current year. The present annual surplus of cactle is produced entirely by Queensland ; the other colonies show a considerable deficiency. Thus, in Victoria during the year 1887, the cast fell short of the consumption by about 72,000. in New South Wales by 37,000, and in South Australia the deficiency was about 31,000 head, making a total deficiency in these colonies of 140,000. Queensland, however, could have been in a position to export 300,000 head, so that the net annual surplus for Australia for that year was 160,000 cattle, while for 1888 this surplus will probably not exceed 141,000. The case in regard to sheep is very different. The present demand for 5,716,000 sheep does not equal half the available supply, and although at the present time population tends to increase at a slightly greater ratio than the flocks of the country, it is impossible to believe that this rapid rate will long continue ; so that the supply of sheep is never likely to be seriously trenched upon, and a very large surplus will exist for supplying markets outside Australia.

From the considerations above given, it will be plain that the supply of beef is practically limited, while that of mutton is inexhaustible. There is, however, a marked tendency to reduce the consumption of beef, especially in Victoria; so that the time when supply and demand will be level may be a little retarded, but the reduction in consumption would require to be very considerable to appreciably affect the result indicated.

The further consideration of the permanence of the Burplus of beef and mutton, taken together under the common designation cf meat, need not be discussed, since the quantity of each that is consumed is known. To combine them together would only obscure the question, which is, after all, How long will the demand leave a surplus of each kind of stock 1 T. A. Coghlan, Statistician.

Colony. 1 Populai tion. Sheep. Cattle. N.S.Wak8. Victoria ... Queensland 1,0-12,011) 1,036,110 306,040 X 1.01,081,546 X X 2.0 2,072,230 X X2.0 733,880 x .25 200,729 .224 232,089 .40 146,776 Total .. 2,445,960 4,787,646' 630,594