THE Evening Star. MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 1869.

Evening Star, Volume VII, Issue 1989, 20 September 1869, Page 2

THE Evening Star. MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 1869.

There is reason to believe that the letters that have appeared in the daily papers respecting Mr Saxby’s predictions have caused much unnecessary alarm. We do not know whether it has been shared in by those who have written them; but whether or not,

those omens of evil have caused so much apprehension in many minds that it becomes a duty to shew that it is utterly needless. It seems very strange that no experience will give people faith in the stability of Nature’s laws. Every few months some new alarm crops up. A very few years ago Dr Gumming discovered that the end of the world was near, and appointed the year, if not the day, when it was to take

place. Dr Gumming had devoted years to the study of prophecy, and therefoi-e numbers were found to put faith in his interpretation. But the day and the year passed over, and the sun continued to rise and the moon to shine, and the earth pursued its orbital journey ; and Dr Gumming learnt that he had not obtained the clue to unravelling the mysteries of the future. Then arose a new prophet, almost unknown at Home—a clumsy logician and bold assumcr —who created quite a luror in the Colonies. His book passed Irom hand to hand, and oven one or two credulous ministers of the gospel pointed to his predictions that “ Napoleon was to be Monarch of the World.” The date was given when England’s Empire was to pass away, and a Buonaparte to displace the Guelpiis. But lo ! the prophet was wrong— Victoria still reigns, equally firmly on the throne as before, while Napoleon seems at times to cotter in his seat. Now a new alarm springs up—a vague surmise—an exaggeration of the anticipations of a scientific man, who, judging by his knowledge of the operation of physical laws, supposes that about a (-riven time there may be atmospheric or tidal disturbances. We do not know that Mr Saxby has gone beyond that general statement; but forthwith it is seized upon by wonder-mongers, and mixed up with superstition and fear of phenomena that result only from other causes than those alluded to. We do not think popular apprehension, even with so little reason, a theme for ridicule. Everyone is not a philosopher, although there are few who are unable to understand the matter if placed simply before them. For their sakes, therefore, we will give a few statements that should allay those unreasonable fears that we understand are entertained by many. It may perhaps clear the way when we explain that, owing to a strange carelessness by the Press in the use of language, the term “ tidal wave ” has been applied, in describing the consequences of the earthquakes that occurred some time

ago, to signify an 11 earthquake wave ” —altogether a different thing. Mr Saxby thinks that from the position of ! the moon with regard to the earth and sun, there may be unusually high tides and perhaps gales of wind, but he does not infer that these disturbances will be accompanied by earthquakes. A report has got abroad that this tidal wave is to be seventy feet high. W^e commend to our readers the following facts, which we shall endeavor to divest as far as possible of technical language. The “tidal wave” is caused by the attraction of the sun and moon, and their effects separately, jointly, and in opposition, are stated by the Rev. R. Joyce to be as follow I “Sir Isaac Newton “ computed that the force of the moon “ raised the water in the ocean ten feet, “ whereas the sun only raised it two “ feet. When the attraction of both “ sun and moon acts in the same dhec- “ tion (that is new and full moon), the “ combined forces of both raised the “ tide twelve feet; but when the moon “ is in her quarters, the attraction of “ one of these bodies raises the water « where that of the other depresses it: “ and therefore, the smaller force of the “ sun must be subtracted from that of “ of the moon ; consequently, the tides “ will not be more than eight feet.” It must be remembered that this rise is what may be expected in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In particular localities the height of the tide is modified by circumstances easily ascertained. Thus, in the British Channel, the Bay of Fundy, and St Malo, the tide has been known to rise 100 feet. “ In the “ middle of the Pacific, and in certain “ parts of the south-east coast of Irc- “ the average is but two or three feet.” Mr Saxby’s expectation of unusual tidal and atmospheric disturbance is, we believe, founded on the calculation that the moon will be nearer to the earth at the time mentioned than she has been for several years, and thus her attractive power will be increased. It, therefore, only remains to be stated that the probable extent of the rise of tide above the usual height will be about four feet—not more certainly should no other circumstances occur to raise it. We are informed that this was about the measure of the tide that occurred under similar influences about nineteen years ago. We trust we have said enough to show that there is no ground for those wild fears that appear to l)e taking hold of the public mind, and even should this extraordinary height of tide take place of four feet above the average spring tides, it will not be a sudden but a giadual rise, unless indeed accompanied by an earthquake—a contingency which need not be apprehended. That there may be gales of wind and tidal disturbances is extremely probable. It is our vernal equinox, and therefore they may be looked forward to in the natural course of events. Earthquakes cannot be predicted with like certainty. The laws that regulate them, and the forces that produce them, have not been ascertained. Not even the most learned in physical science would venture to offer

an opinion on the ,subject. So far as is at present known, they depend upon circumstances beyond the reach of human observation. Leaving them then altogether out of the question, we may safely conclude that nothing extraordinary need be apprehended beyond a gale of wind, with or without a storm of rain, or an uncommonly high tide, at or about the time to which Mr Saxhy’s prediction refers.