NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

Evening Post, Volume CXXXIII, Issue 96, 24 April 1942, Page 6

NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

THE OUTLOOK

BEFORE THE CRISIS

The war continues, in the .main, to mark time while the belligerents feverishly prepare for. < action which in the next few months will determine the course of events leading to the final outcome. In Russia both sides are massing all their forces for the inevitable clash when the ground hardens.after the, thaw. Germany fears an attack from the West also, and is hurriedly strengthening coastal defences. Laval introduces a new, factor in the attitude: of France." Japan still presses forward, but with slower momentum; The Axis is probably at the peak of its power just now; the Allies will1 be much stronger next year,' if all goes reasonably well. Germany herself- is, almost beyond doubt, weaker than "she . was a year ago, when she had reached the zenith of her position in Europe with conquests from the North Cape to Cape Matapan and from Poland to the Bay of Biscay, ' and her army almost unimpaired. ■ Ten months of war in Russia have made all the difference. Lost equipment ■ may have been and still may be- replaced, but of the original army which • overran western and south-eastern Europe and western Russia in 1940 and. 1941 there can in 1942 be not much; left for action in the front line. M. Lozowsky, the Moscow commentator, has just declared, that Germany has thrown into the Russian front nine-tenths oi her total strength. Allowance made -for propaganda,-this is-probably not far from the" truth. The remaining tenth would, comprise the western and other garrisons and Rommel's reduced Afrika Korps in Libya. The point is not so much the actual numbers—Germany may have as many men iir the field as ever—but the quality. Everything goes to show that this is inferior to that of the veteran Wehrmacht soldiery who swept all before them until they came to a standstill in the Russian winter, with . their task there still far from 1 completed. Balance of Power. To rectify the balance Germany has called in Japan in the Far East, scoured occupied Europe for labour and contributions to the army, and finally imposed a friendly Laval on Vichy to secure the more effective collaboration. If that were 'the whole story, the Axis could be said to have made substantial gains, outbalancing the' losses, and seriously threatening the Allies this year. But the entry of Japan into the war brought in also the United States on the Allied side, and this, in the long run, will turn the balance in favour of the Allies. But America will not attain the. height of her .strength until next year, 1943, and that would apply also to the whole effort of the United Nations. American production on a war basis will reach its peak in 1943.. Until then the Allies will not have all they require in the shape of war material, ships to transport it, and warships to protect them in their, long voyages across the oceans. This is the position the Allies have to face at the present time when they will have to resist . a, .supreme effort of the Axis to win before they themselves have mustered" their maximum strength. . Position in the West. , It is not much use speculating where the Axis attack in Europe will come. Unless the Allies can create' a- formidable diversion in the West by landings in occupied -Europe, the main drive is still likely to be through Russia. ' almost certainly in the south towards the oilfields of Baku ■ and the Middle East. Whether Laval will throw in the French fleet and French North Africa to assist Rommel in a thrust from Libya is at the moment quite uncertain. So also is an Axis attack through Turkey or in Syria. Much could be written about the prospects of such attempts or the enlistment of Spain on the side of. the Axis, but it would be pure speculation. The evidence, if anything, is that Hitler dreads opening up another front, which might prove of more advantage to the Allies than to the Axis. ' Confident Russia. • The Russians themselevs seem to be quite confident of their ability to hold their own in Russia and eventually to expel the invaders. It seems clear now that the Russians have used their war resources in man-power and material more economically than the Germans, and have consequently greater reserves, with the help of the Allies, well equipped with all that is necessary for a continuation of a successful offensive. On the whole, therefore, the outlook in Europe—the western theatre of war—is not gloomy. The only uncertain factor is the attitude of Vichy. In the East. In the eastern theatre of war the Japanese are now, probably, at their maximum strength and nearing the limit of their advances round the perimeter" of their conquests. It is possible that they may succeed in driv- • ing the Allies out of Burma, but they are not likely to get far in India, if indeed they try at all. It would only be in an effort to help the Axis in Europe that they might attempt it. lOn the other hand, they might easily turn to the sea, where so far they have had their greatest successes, and try to gain control of the Indian Ocean by the seizure of island bases, as they did in the south-west Pacific. This raises the question of French Madagascar to vital strategic importance. Vichy is already taking action, according to the news, to clear Madagascar of elements hostile to the Axis. There is therefore significance in. the announcement that South • Africa has broken off diplomatic relations with Vichy. Madagascar is vital to South Africa and the whole line of communications with the Middle East. Air Power the Secret There is also news that the Japan- . ese are making further landings in the Solomons, pointing to •an effort to hamper American communications with Australia. It is in these directions that the Japanese are most dangerous. A circle of enemy bases in the Pacific and Indian Oceans would make it difficult to get at Japan herself. In these great distances the secret of victory is air power, and once the Allies can secure that the Japanese will find it hard to retain their conquests. The fight this year then will probably be a hard one, but given a unity of Allied strategy with a unity of control which is rapidly being established, plus maximum production, particularly of aircraft, with ships to distribute them wherever needed, the outlook is not unfavourable. '