NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

Evening Post, Issue 71, 20 September 1941, Page 10

NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

OUTSIDE RUSSIA

WHAT IS BEING DONE

COUNTER TO THE

AXIS

The news from Russia, attenuated as it has been for the last two days by failure of communications, shows no improvement in a critical situation at Leningrad, round Kiev, now. apparently enclosed by » pincer movement, and in the southeastern Ukraine towards the Crimea. The Germans report the capture of Kiev. Whether this is - true or not, pressure has nowhere been released* asd the Germans are throwing in men and material to » secure before the winter at least a partial decision, giving them the three objectives'mentioned above on which to base a renewal of

the struggle in the spring.

The attack on Russia is widely supposed to have been, decided upon mainly because Germany needs supplies from southern Russia, especially oil from the Caucasus. In fact, only the oil was worth: a campaign, for all the other supplies that Russia can- give are materials which: exist in-/'plenty in German hands now. The main reason for^the German assault was strategical, and was in full accord with the principle of "one job at a time, and the safest one first."

In June last, Germany had occupied every potentially hostile country on the European continent except Russia. She had two avowed- enemies leftBritain and Russia. Both had been marked down for destruction. Both had been soft-soaped—Britain before the war, Russia after it began. But the sentence had been passed, and not quashed. Germany well knew that Stalin held just as realistic a view of the Russo-German pact as Hitler had; it was good just as long as it paid. Russia did not let the grass grow on the parade grounds, nor the war factories rust, and Hitler knew that if he attacked England, his eastern front would be in peril. The pact was useful to Hitler because it enabled him to operate in the west. It was useful to Stalin because it gave him time to prepare against the German attack which he knew would, sooner or later, come upon Russia.

Effect of Events.

Events, as it turned out, favoured Germany more than the Soviet. The defeat of France was swift and cost Germany little in man-power. Hitler was able, just as swiftly, to clean the Balkans and to range Finland with him. The Soviet had gained a respite of two years; but so cheap had Germany's victories been that it too had profited by the time. Germany had also vastly extended the front that Russia must defend; instead of reaching from the Baltic to Rumania, it now stretched from the Arctic to the Black Sea, nearly four times as far. Germany had also blocked normal channels of help to Russia, via the Arctic and the Dardanelles.

Now or Next Year?

The Russian climate is such, that a serious campaign must begin in June, to take advantage of the short summer, so that a delay of a month means 'a delay •of a -year. Hitler, had- therefore to choose between June this-year and June next year. But 1942 would have given the Soviet twelve months' more time to prepare.

Moreover, Hitler knew that though Britain was not yet ready to strike, and that America's help had not yet reached its maximum, the Allies plans have the year 1943 marked in red ink, and 1942 has a circle round it. He could not afford to strike at Britain with the Russian menace at-his back; and he. could not afford to wait' to fight a stronger Russia with an Allied attack threatening him at half a dozen possible places.

The Unknown Factor

What, has actually happened has proved the correctness, from a realistic military standpoint, of Hitler's decision to attack this year; but it has proved also the incorrectness of his calculations on a fairly easy victory with a blitzkrieg. Russian resistance, the unknown factor, has assumed dimensions Hitler never anticipated. Instead of conquering what he wanted of Russia with, the forces already ranged- on ,the frontier at the outset, estimated at from 120 to 130 divisions, or, roughly, two million men, Hitler has been compelled to draw heavily on "his reserves in Germany itself and'on his garrisons in the various occupied countries, replacing them with second-line troops, like the Landsturm of the'last war. He has also used up most of the Rumanian army, and much of the bFinnish and Hungarian forces, and has called on Mussolini to send - more" and more assistance from. Italy.

Help to Russia.

What therefore is being done' outside to meet Russia's urgent needs for assistance? A New York message says that 300 modern American planes have . been , flown from Britain to Russia, and 200 which arrived in England and were still in their.crates have been shipped on for- the Soviet. The nearest air lines are nowhere shorter than -a thousand miles and that over mainly hostile territory. This is a long way-for a fighter, even with extra tanks. Yet it is fighters- that are needed most to combat the German divebombers, especially over Leningrad. It was officially stated recently that a "wing" has been sent from Britain, and this means not only aircraft, but the whole personnel and ground-equipment —quite a large transport operation. Another item in the New York message is a report received through Madrid that "scores of merchant ships loaded with arms fbr Russia and the Middle East are rounding the Cape of Good Hope en route for the Persian Gulf." Others may be crossing the Pacific-with the same destination.

Indirect Aid,

So much for direct help to Russia. What is being done indirectly and what can be done? The daily and nightly raids of the R.A.F. over the western countries of Europe, including Germany, must be having an effect on German munitions supply and nationalmorale that cannot be measured. The correspondent of- a Swiss newspaper, noted for its accuracy, in a message yesterday attempted an estimate which would be reassuring to the Allies if it were not for the pressure of time. The people of Germany, Ahe says, are still "convinced that final victory is possible." German manpower in the munitions factories has been largely .replaced by women (eight million) and foreign workers (four million), making up for the twelve million Germans called to the colours. There is enough food to go round, but it is-not as nourishing as it was. This picture shows Germany at the limit of its war effort with victory still not in sight?