NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

Evening Post, Volume CXXXII, Issue 61, 9 September 1941, Page 8

NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

THE NEXT MOVE

WHEN WINTER COMES

SHIFT TO THE SOUTH

Whatever efforts Hitler - may make in Russia from now on, he can hardly hope to finish the campaign decisively before the whiter comes. In six or seven weeks at the most Russia will pass over to ice and snow, and hostilities must , slow down. It is possible that the Germans will dig in on some line they may have reached by that j time, and both sides will have to wait for.the spring and. the thawing of the countryside. Will the ! Axis'be content with a temporary j stalemate in Russia? That is on- ! likely. There are all the signs of a shift to the shores of the Mediterranean and even further south. One of the most significant changes, noted in the news, is the > •greatlyincreased Axis traffic between- Sicily and North Africa, so much increased that it' has been called a "ferry service." Though by aircraft and submarine this traffic.has been subject to almost daily attacks by British Mediterranean forces, including those in North Africa, in spite of heavy recorded losses in shipping at sea and nn the aerodromes an* ports on both sides of the Channel, it may be presumed that much of the material transported and a fair proportion of the reinforcements sent have got through: What is the purpose of these; movements? Are they to strengthen the defences of Cyrenaica " and' Libya against impending attack by-the British, or are they designed for '■ a new Axis offensive against Egypt' and the Suez Canal? They could be used for either purpose. The "Daily Mail," in free comment, suggests: "This time the Imperial forces should., capture and' hold the North African coast, menacing Italy with invasion and confronting Vichy with.the same determination that was shown in Syria: that is, if the Germans are allowed to use Tunis and Morocco." Darlan Paves the Way. A few days ago the "Daily Telegraph's" correspondent, discussing the dismissal of Admiral Leluc from' the command of the French navy, -said that German demands for the use of Bizerta and Tunisia were believed to have inspired Leluc to adopt an attitude which made his dismissal inevitable. Hitler is aiming, said the correspondent, "to switch his sea route to the narrower channel from the western tip of Sicily to the eastern tip of Tunisia, which is about 120 miles. Admiral Darlan cannot on his own account take such an important decision, which" General Weygand opposes and Marshal Petain hopes to stave off." - But Darlan, no friend of Britain, has prepared the way for Hitler in North Africa by the series of changes in the command announced on August 27. -General Weygand is no longer-Commander-in-Chief there, but with General Nogues, commander in Morocco, has-been given titular rank without -power.- They have been replaced by General Hunt- ' ziger and' other generals, subservient 'to Vichy. Axis in North Africa. Thus' the way has been' cleared for Vichy collaboration with the- Axis in North Africa. This may even include the use of the French navy, and the French North African. army. It is notable that General Dentz, who gave the Allies so much trouble in Syria and behaved with complete hostility to the former allies of France, .is reported, on his release from, detention, to have been given an important post by Darlan. While Vichy remains quiet at the moment, there is little reason to expect from it now even the qualified neutrality of Petain and Weygand. Any spectacular success by Germany in Russia might precipitate action. Dakar a Key Point. There is no need to emphasise the' strategic importance,of French North Africa. Since the collapse of' France it has always been a source of trouble to Britain in the Mediterranean. With Darlan in charge at Vichy and the Germans thick in North Africa anything may occur. The Free French move on Dakar a year ago has been followed by the strengthening of the defences of this key post in Atlantic strategy, and a railway connecting it with the rest of French North Africa must now be approaching completion, if it is not already complete.. By such a strategic line the sending of supplies and reinforcements to Dakar would be simple and easy. Dakar could also be made a base for operations against the Free French possessions in the Chad area and even against British West Africa at Bathurst, only about 100 miles to the south on the Gambia River, and Sierra Leone, about 400 miles further. Peril to New World. Dakar is part of the great' German strategic plan of world domination. By air it is only about 1700 miles to the nearest point in South America, and jit is commonly regarded.as the Nazi jumping-off point for designs on Latin America. Dakar is much nearer to South America than is the United States. It is less than half the distance that Norfolk (Virginia) is from Pernambuco (Brazil). From Norfolk to Rio de Janeiro is 5824 miles: from Dakar to Rio is well under 3000. German operations in French North and West Africa are. therefore of. direct concern to the United States. Should German control extend to the-Portuguese Azores and Cape Verde Islands, both well out in the Atlantic from the shores of the Old World, the position of the New World in the , Western Hemisphere would be even more serious. Threat to Turkey. At the moment Germany has her hands full in Russia, but in six or seven weeks the position in Russia may be more or less stabilised for the winter, and the Axis will be free for enterprises elsewhere. Towards Turkey there is also a threat; just now in the stiffening of forces on Turkey's European frontier1 and the dispatch: of a Nazi trade mission'to-Ankara .curider the notorious Dr. Clodius," who "" arrived at Istanbul at the weekend. "Constant pressure is being put: on Turkey to open' the Dardanelles" to Axis warships and thus confront the Russian navy in (the Black Sea with an awkward situation. These are some of the possibilities the Allies must face in the regions south of Russia when the winter comes. Much will depend on which side takes the initiative and gets its move, in first. So far in this war the advantage in every case has'fallen to the initiative. Even in Russia1 the gains to the Germans from their sudden attack have been considerable, and there is nothing to show that surprise moves elsewhere might not repeat the lesson. It is noteworthy that wherever the Allies have taken the first step, as in Africa,. Syria, .and Iran, they have I succeeded. *