NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

Evening Post, Volume CXXX, Issue 31, 5 August 1940, Page 9

NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

THREAT OF FAMINE

OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE

GIFT OF THE GERMANS

Day after day reports of the grim winter ahead for Europe are printed in the foreign news. In the struggle to unify Europe under Nazi domination, it begins to appear, Hitler may bring the scourge of famine and all it means to the Continent in a form and on a scale which has not jbeen known since the Black &)eath. Policy and 111 Luck. The situation today is due to two things, one the deliberate policy of the Nazis and the other the fact that luck has turned against them. , The first thing is the disorganisation in such countries as Poland and Denmark after the German occupation. The huge population transfers in Poland, the attempt to resettle whole areas, and the massing of the Jews into a special reserve have helped to create economic confusion there. That famine conditions' are near in Poland has long been known to the world. - The short-range policy of plunder, seen in operation in Denmark, has helped to aggravate the situation. This line of action suggests that the Nazis are very conscious that they are fighting against time, and that they are staking everything on winning their campaign before the winter On no other ground is it possible to explain the destruction of Danish economy as a food reserve for the sake of immediate gains. Two Sources Affected. On top of this will be felt the effects of the last terrible winter. Both Germany's main outside sources of food supply, Russia and south-eastern Europe, have been affected by it, and from both of them food will be available only in diminished quantities. The 194Q harvests in the south-eastern countries are likely to be much reduced. In Hungary the year is expected to j be as bad as, if not worse than, 1929, when 30 per cent, of the wheat harvest was lost. In.Northern Yugoslavia there were similar bad conditions. Bulgaria arid Rumania were more fortunate, but still the figures will be down. The recently conquered territories may suffer most of all. Colonel William J. Donovan, president of the Paderewski Relief Fund, recently stated that starvation has already undoubtedly existed for several months among Poles. And a survey of expected conditions in- Western European countries has been made by Mr. Nat. C. Murray, who, as chief statistician for the United States Department of Agriculture, directed a study of the effect of the World War on farm production."" i ./. . /Jit j ~ ... , ... ~. ; Low Countries' Needs.

Mr. Murray points out that Belgium, with a population of 8,400,000, normally has imports nine times gresiter, by volume, than her exports. She imported 70 per cent, of her wheat, 50 per cent, of her cereals, and 80 per cent, of her barley. In meat her production was 10 per cent, short of her needs and in sugar 15 per cent, short. In addition she had to import fish, fruit, "coffee, and live stock feed.

Normally the population of the Netherlands is 67 per cent, self-suffi-cient. Two-thirds of the wheat needed has to come from abroad, 50 per cent, of the barley, and 40 per cent. dl the sugar. Fruit and coffee also come from abroad. The country's strength has been its past export of 60 per cent, of its butter production. Norway Needs Feeding. Norway, with almost 3,000,000 people, is only 43 per cent, self-sufficient in food, 92 per cent, of its rye being imported, and virtually all its sugar. The fishing industry caught over a million tons of fish a year and about onefourth of it was exported. But the fishing industry has been disrupted by the invasion. Agricultural production in all countries has also been adversely affected by the war. Mobilisations ' have created labour shortages, and there is a widespread lack of fertilisers. It will be remembered that the Germans sought to strengthen their food front by sending large numbers of Poles to the Reich to work on the land. In April the United States Department of Agriculture said that the results were likely to be unfavourable. The Polish field hands, it was said, were used to cruder instruments of agriculture than they found on the mechanised German farms. Moreover, despite, the drive for food self-suffi-ciency, the Germans still have a heavy deficit in meat (home production of which' in turn depends on imported feeding-stuffs), edible fats, and oils. German livestock, like Danish livestock, is dependent on oilseed cake, which is now cut off by the blockade. Dairy Output in Peril. German dairy output is endangered by the same factor, and as German food rations are already sub-standard in quality and the countries the Nazis have taken over are a food liability the position is marching on to the desperate. To,the other liabilities will soon be added that of Italy, which also lacks essential supplies. The drastic winter, which played havoc outside Germany, has also damaged the crops in the Reich, especially greens. The potato crop has been attacked by the Colorado beetle, according to British information, and there has been a troublesome outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.

It may also be recalled that the growth of the German air force and development of the fortified zones was accompanied by a loss of cultivated land —about 7 per cent, of the total in the Reich. And finally there is i the problem of phosphates, of which three-fifths used to come from abroad, and of providing a balanced supply of plant food for the field crops. Huge Wheat Imports. The danger facing Europe and the Keich (for famine on the borders of Germany will Inevitably lead to dire penalties in Germany as well) may be expressed in another way. Belgium, Norway, and Holland alone used to import 70,000,000 bushels of wheat a year. Tha+ was equivalent to 37 per cent, of the Australian wheat production in 1937-38. The wheat surplus this year is going to be confined to a few countries, such as Canada, the United States, and Australia. How are the Germans going to fill the food! needs of the conquered lands? I