THE WELLINGTON CUP

Evening Post, Volume CXXVII, Issue 8, 11 January 1939, Page 13

THE WELLINGTON CUP

EARLY ANALYSIS OF WEIGHTS

IHAS DEFAULTER'S MEASURE YET BEEN TAKEN?

(By "Rangatira.")

It is many years since there were more intriguing fields to handicap for the opening day of the Wellington Racing Club's Summer Meeting than the Wellington Cup and the Telegraph Handicap, popularly known as the Trentham January double, have provided this year. In particular, the Wellington Cup has offered some intricate problems, and, as usually happens in such cases, there will be a divergence of opinion as to whether the problems have all .been satisfactorily solved, because the solution depends so much on the lines that are taken in estimating potential ability. The ultimate test of any handicap is the result, and this will now be awaited with more than ordinary interest.

There were a number of ways in which Mr. H. Coyle could have approached the Wellington Cup when framing Jiis weights for this race. A fairly high scale might have been adopted, as the class is well above average, but the levelling trend that has been so much in evidence during the last couple of years made this a doubtful approach. Instead Mr. Coyle has decided that what is commonly termed a flattering handicap best suited the circumstances.

KINNOULL'S EFFORT.

- In contrast a rather higher scale has been adopted with the "Telegraph Handicap, and the result has been to separate the tops more than they might have been from others in the field who have previously shown their :best form on the Trentham .course.

SOYAL CHIEF'S MARK.

With "Royal Chief among the nominations, it was fairly patent that the Chief Ruler horse would head the list. It was just a matter of what he would be given: Considering that in recent years Vintage won this race under 9.9, and Cuddle and Silver Ring weire honoured with SJI sand 9,9 respectively, one -would have at least 9.8 and possibly more for Hoy al Chief, who won the A.J.C. Metropolitan Handicap in the spring. under 8.1-3 and was favourite for the Melbourne Cup, in which he finished fifth, under 9.3. In being allotted-only -9.7, lie-has no cause whatever for complaint. Under this weight and in anything like his best Australian .form he would be a force to be-respected. He is a horse who has usually freshened up after short spejls,;and Riccarton reports state that he is .again working in great style.

j. Catalogue's weight more or less depended .on .where Royal -Chief . was placed. The Melbourne Cup winner ■was .in receipt of JL3lb irom Jttoyal Chief that day, and now the difference has been -reduced to which is a reasonatble estimate of Melbourne form, the most -Recent for both horses. 'It. is unnecessary for present purposes to take account of Catalogue's vdefeat under 9.5 over a mile and three-quarters on the final day at Flemington. Catalogue has won at Trentham, but the course has ibeen a somewhat unlucky one-for Mm in the narrow defeats lie .has .suffered there. Two years ago he "was beaten only by Reipar in the Champion Hack Cup, 11 iurlongs, and last -year he was liieqohd to Padishah in the Wellington' Gup, carrying 8.3, and second to Davolo in the Autumn Handicap, 11 furlongs, carrying 8.5. Though he will: tufdoubtedly be among the better-fancied, division if produced next week, it may pay to remember that ihe has generally required, at ieast bnei.r acedia *llim after his. speQJs Xb&ore ,sixsixig .scbebise mmkMm&A''-.

"HORSES FOR COURSES."

It wall bea surprise- to many to find Wild Chase : assessed, above Catalogue. Twelve .months .*ago Wild .Chase had 8.12 and finished ohly eighth.Hand' until his_w|ris in the ,C.J;C.-'vJs^daitbn Handicapand"Manawatu,Gup this season his.losm iad been. -well, below what he ;was mice vof-producing,: These two horses were nominated tf or - the Manawatu tjCup, £nd -foe general anticipation was that Catalogue would be weighted .several pounds above Wild Chase; but Catalogue w.ag. withdrawn prior to the .declaration of weights, which has now been shown to have been a. very discreet move,, and Wild Chase, forced up to the obligatory 9.0, was the-winner. Whatever -Wild Chase has done during, the past three weeks —he was beaten out of the anoney in the Wairarapa Cup under ;9;9—it hardly seems just that lie should now have to concede -weight to Catalogue because the Melbourne Cup winner remained out.of the handicapper's hands over the holidays.. From one angle Wild Chase's mark might be justified. He was a class three-jyear-old and won the Dunedin Cup, li miles, under .8.9 at that age. His recent form might be taken as an indication that he has come back to something like his best—if only he had not failed so .completely at Tauhere-nikau-rand a handicapper is entitled to weight aiorse on ibis-best past form while-there is reason to believe that he is etill capable of reproducing that form. Ifet, one feels that Wild Chase has received the tworst of this deal in being above Catalogue. Mazir, on 812, is another who appears to have all his full parcel of. weight; but ihe is one of those unfortunates who have forced themselves to a -high post J>y his: performances against the best ..class, and Mr. Coyle has clearly felt compelled to assess him oh his latest place form. jEfaat was his second in ihe AJSjC. Handicap, It£ miles, on New Day, when he carried .8.12 into second place behind Round Up and ih front of Arctic King, 8.10. In the Auckland Cup he was unplaced under 8.8, but on the second day of that meeting he. was fourth under 9.0 in the -Summer Cup. During the current term he 'has on occasions given weight .to-such horses as Round Up, Valamito, and Cheval de Volee and beabten .them, which all tallies.up the poundage against him.

THE LOWER GROUP.

Defaulter was perhaps the biggest problem of the , whole handicap, because it is still only an exercise of judgment that can level him in handicap grade. The Auckland handicapper failed by a long way to measure him. Mr. -Coyle has been more severe, but he too, in the -opinion of many, might have .erred on the side of lenience.

'•MURDERING" HORSES

,There is <a. freely-expressed opinion that -ia. good Jiorse .should not be "murdered" in the weights. But that should not concern a handicapper, whose job is to marshal ia field in such a way that the horses in form should run as near as possible a dead heat. Admittedly no one -wants to see a good horse ruined by mighty .efforts under Heavy-weights, but .that is the business of jhis connections, who are best able to judge his limits and may choose his programme accordingly.. Defaulter may be only a three-year-old an years, but he is' more than a three-year-old in maturity and deeds. As Commendation could, he can master any .ordinary -weight. Eleven pounds above the wf.a. scale, as Defaulter's 8.11 represents, would be an insuperable obstacle to even a good .average class horse, but it anay not be fo -one of De-faulters-super class. A champion can win «yen asraee such as the Melbourne Cup -with.a 4sbone above wf-a.—-Carbine did feat-rand Defaulter has jdone everything to date as a'jeal champion should ;do. After all, Royal Chief's weight in next-week's race is 71b above the scale, and if anything the scale favours a ttmee-year-old, -particularly from -the summer onwards. *

Not many ihres^year-olds of class have contested the. Wellington Cup since the race was transferred to the Trentham course in 1906, and the only winner of fhat age has been Kapine, who scored under J712 dn 1923. Rapine previously had won the Avondale Guineas, but he was beaten by Enthusiasm in the Great Northern 'Derby and generally he was not proved above average class when, weighted for the Wellington, Cup. One could hardly

compare the Rapine of January, 1923, with the Defaulter of January, 1939.

A better instance of what a good three-year-old might do in the Wellington Cup was afforded by Kinnoull three years ago. Kinnoull was generally conceded unlucky to have been beaten out of a place in the Derby, and Mr. Coyle weighted him 8.5 in the WelUngton .Gujp\ With that impost he came home brilliantly after suffering in early trouble to be third to Queen of Song, 7.6, and Silver Ring, 9.9. With a decent run he would have won that Wellington Cup. Few will be unwilling to admit that Defaulter is more than 61b superior to Kinnoull on their deeds as three-year-olds to the end of the New Year holiday racing. Though three-year-olds have not often traced in ithe Wellington Cup in recent years they have .often taken their £lace in -other -mile and a half handicaps duEing the autumn, suchas the Dunedin Cup and the C.J.C. Great Autumn Handicap. The Dunedin Cup, for instance, run about three weeks after the Wellington Cup. was won ;six years ago by Silver Scorn under 9.2, which represented 181b over w.f.a.; and Wild Chase captured the same race at the age under 81b above scale -weight. Defaulter's 111b. above srale .reads tvery favourably in the light of those two performances, and particularly when one recalls how this colt outclassed Wild Chase at «i.a. in the Canterbury Cup in November. - Although Defaulter has returned south! following his Auckland trip, it is likely that he will now return for the Wellington Cup. He is to undertake a trip to Australia shortly for the autumn racing in Sydney, and his connections would rather produce him for a trial against the best handicap class at. Trentham than wait for the Dunedin Meeting in the middle of next month, which would be rather close to the date of his (departure if or Sydney. If -he should come to Trentham and Start in the Wellington Cup, for winch a warm invitation lias been extended him, there ..is little .doubt what horse will start favourite, and probably a decided favourite at that. Defaulter is a class above that of any other three-year-old that has ever contested the Wellington Cup.

If Defaulter were to fail, the -horse bringing .about Jhis *downfabU would probably he found coming from among those below him in the weights, and especially those good handicappers nexs after him in the list. Four of these .are in the eight stones, and all. have been good past winners at Trentham. Arctic King looks well treated with 8.9, but Mazir has helped in bringing his weight down to -even less than he carried in the. Auckland.Cup.,, This .gelding, has rarely gone .a poor race at 'Trentham, and among his victories there * have been the Wellington Handicap and the Whyte Handicap, besides several placings in open class. He was -unlucky in *heA.R.C. last Monday week When beaten by Round and Mazir, ..and despite his full season he has rarely looked as well as/he does at.present. He standsmp to a lot of racing, because his hard work is mainly only in.iiis races.. Quadroon- has v/on the Parliamentary Handicap and the Wellington Handicap at his last two visits tb Trentham, and the rule of horses for courses works out time.and again. Still Quadroon has none the best of the handicap compared -with Arctic King, who now meets -him 21b better than in the Auckland Cup on a course on which his record for consistency is every bit as .attractive.

Argentic, on the same mark as Quadroon (8.5), has at last begun to come down in the weights, but, though he has run some good races on the course and twice won the mile and a half Metropolitan Handicap at Riccarton, on. each occasion in track record time, he may now be past the day when capable of reproducing Ohis best. The same seems to apply to the Wellington Cup winner of three years ago, Queen of Song, despite her recent success at Invercargill.

The scale of weights adopted for the better-performed horses makes the task .confronting the lighter weights more f ormidaihle than ordinarily, but there are still some among those assessed below 8.0 who might play a part in the decision :of this year's Wellington Cup. lt is perhaps worthy of mention .that since the occasion when Vintage carried the race^winning record weight (at Trentham) to success four years ago, all the winners have come from the 7.0 group. In 1936 Queen of Song won under 7.6, .heating Silver Ring, 9J9; in 1337 Ponty scored under the then minimum of 7.7; and last, year's victor was Padishah, 7.9, who beat Catalogue, 8.3.

One particular improver in this group is the imported horse Royal Star 11, who won the Wairarapa Cup attractively a fortnight ago at his first attempt over a middle distance. This horse has been successful on nearly every occasion on which he has been backed by 'his .connections in the Dominion, and his party were not only confident tabout his winning at Tauherenikau, but they are also now optimistic about their Trentham prospects. In all probability he will be started in the Cup in preference to the Anniversary Handicap on the 'same day. Other horses who will claim some early attention are Dictate, third in, the Auckland Cup and a previous winner at Trentham; Siegmund, who was unlucky with 41b more in the race last year and is now coming back fo form; The Bigot, also unlucky last year and a recent winner at Marton; Corroboree, a winner at Manawatu over the holidays; and Happy Landing, narrowly beaten by Quadroon at the .Spring Meeting and well suited by a roomy course such as Trentham. The two three-year-old fillies in the field, Peerless and Homily, the best of1 their sex this season, are also at least possibilities, as each can stay the distance, though Defaulter, if on hand and reasonably favoured in the passage he receives should the field be big, looks like holding this pair safe ai the difference in weights, Peerless receiving 131b and Homily 171b respectively from him -when sex allowance of 31b is taken into account. The remainder of the field will attract little notice against the quality of the others. .

Horses .engaged in the Cup who are also listed for rthe Anniversary Handicap on the same day are Soyai Star H, The Bigot, ILady Montana, The Sandwich Man, Dainty Sue, and .Cricket. Royal Star !H and The Bigot are probably the only pair who might still tdke on the Cup, .despite the advantage the higher -weights appear to hold under the scale adopted.

It is anticipated that the value of this year's Santa Anita Handicap will work out at £37,700, of which the first horse's share will be £26,450. Second i-money is £5000, third £2500, and fourth £1250, and there is £2500 for the itrainer of the winner. The added money is £25;000, and 115 nominations at £25 each and about 30 starters at £250 each will be necessary for the anticipated amount to be reached.