CANTERBURY SEATS

Evening Post, Volume CXXVI, Issue 89, 12 October 1938, Page 10

CANTERBURY SEATS

PARTY PROSPECTS

PROBABLE CHANGES

(Special to the "Evening Post.")

CHRISTCHURCH, October 11

If there is any change in the election forecast for Canterbury within the last couple of weeks it has to be made in Riccarton, Mr. Kyle's seat. At the beginning Mr. T. H. Langford, the Labour challenger, was expected to win, but he has been a complete disappointment and has been, like his meetings, dull. Mr. Kyle's stock has gone up on account of his platform work, and the seat extends far enough into rural areas to ensure him a majority there. At the moment he looks, like retaining the seat.

The National candidate in Kaiapoi, Mr. G. C. Warren, has strengthened his position by a very cheerful manner and great ability in meeting interjection and argument. Mr. Morgan Williams, the late Labour member, is another dull campaigner, and here again a National victory can be fairly confidently predicted.

The other sehts likely to be lost to Labour are Waitaki, where alpiost unanimous country opinion outweighs borough solidarity for Labour, and Mid-Canterbury, where Mr. A. N. Grigg has made a marked impression. Nor is it considered today that Mr. Clyde Carr has any certainty in Timaru.

It is impossible to forecast a Labour defeat in Lyttelton, Avon, Christchurch East, and Christchurch South, despite excellent work by National candidates. In Christchurch North, Mr. Holland's 5 position is strengthened as the days go by.

It is still extremely difficult to get behind ii\e general reticence of the man in the street about the election. In the cities social security is undergoing a close scrutiny. Two leaders in the friendly society movement have contributed signed articles wholly condemning the Government's scheme as affecting the friendly society movement. It is clear that young people especially are making an effort to balance their high contributions to the fund against the small immediate benefits. But it may also be said that the scheme is still undigested.

In the country two outstanding issues will count against the Government; the first is the inability of the farmer to get labour, and if the difficulty is acute now it will be much worse as work on farms increases. The second is the country quota, on which Mr. Savage's lack of candour must lose him many votes.