LOW BIRTH-RATE

Evening Post, Volume CXXIV, Issue 108, 3 November 1937, Page 5

LOW BIRTH-RATE

INQUIRY IN ENGLAND

CHECK IN THE DECLINE

(From "The Post's" Representative.) LONDON, October 9.

The dangers of falling birth-rate were discussed by Mr. Duncan Sandys, M.P., grandson of the -late Mr. Duncan Cameron, of Springfield, Canterbury, at the Conservative Party Conference this week. He moved a resolution "viewing with concern the progressive decline in the birth-rate," and congratulated the Minister of Health on having decided to institute a special inquiry into the problem. "Ever since about 1870," he said, "our birth-rate has been falling more and more steeply. In three or four years' time it is expected that the number of births will be fewer than the number of deaths. The population of England and Wales is now 41,000,000. It is estimated that even if the birth-rate and death-rate were to become stabilised at the present level—and that is. a most optimistic assumption—our population would in 60 years' time have fallen to 28,000,000. If, on the other hand, the birth-rale continues to decline—which for a time is more than probablethen by the same date our numbers are likely to have shrunk to less than onehalf of what they are today, and in 100 years' time it may well be that we shall have dwindled' to somewhere between 4,000,000 and 5,000,000." Discussing the practical • effect of these trends, Mr. Sandys ' said that while Britain and the other Western Powers were declining in numbers the countries oi the Balkan's, Soviet Russia, and the peoples of the Far East— with their already vast populationswere continuing to multiply. I am certainly not advocating what is called breeding babies for cannon fodder," he continued. "Nevertheless we should be shirking our responsibility if we were to conceal from ourselves the fact that a great Empire like ourselves, whose population will be growing progressively smaller and older, must inevitably become.. increasingly vulnerable to attack."

After referring to the. racial implications of a population decline in the Dominions, Mr. Sandys said that with a population whose numbers ' are declining, and whose average age is rising, we would be faced with the situation of a smaller and' smaller proportion of active workers having to support an ever-increasing proportion of old people. , FAMILY ENCOURAGEMENT. "Those are the dangers. What can be done to avert them?" he asked. "There are two ways of attempting to raise the birth-rate. One is to do what they have done in Italy and make birth-control illegal—a most retrograde step; the other is so to improve social and economic conditions as to make parents glad to have more children, and that, I am sure, is the only civilised way to approach this problem." Many different methods o'{ encouraging larger families had been advocated —marriage-loans, family allowances, a longer period of rest before confinement for working mothers, attendance by children of all classes at the free elementary schools, the reurbanisation of industry, more labour-saving dwellings, more creches and nursery schools. "Some of these measures, together with others, will very' likely have- to be adppted," said Mr. Sandys. "The Government has, however, wisely decided that before' determining its pblicy it must have the fullest possible information. Hence, the welcome announcement of an inquity. "I am confident that as a nation we shall not be found lacking in a sense of responsibility for the future. We are not going to let our British Empire go the way of the great empires of the past—dwindle, decay, and disappear. Britain's destiny still lies ahead of her. The hopes of the world of democracy, of progress, of civilisation, are today centred in the British race. >> We have a part to play in history, and we mean to play it." CHECK SINCE 1933. Sir Kingsley Wood, Minister of , Health, who also addressed the conference, said: "Until recently the downward trend has been unmistakable, and it is true that if 'we accept it there is the assumption that our population would fall in 30 years perhaps to 30,000,000 ■' and in 100 years to 5,000,000. But I have to tell you that since the birth-rate reached its lowest level in England in 1933 it has remained during the three completed years which have elapsed, not only> without any further decline, but with a slight upward tendency. The latest figures show. that this tendency has so far continued during the present incomplete year. "This is a remarkable, and, I think I can say, unprecedented phenomenon, and I say at once that too much must not be built upon it. But the more the check in the decline is prolonged the more hope it offers that continuous decline is not inevitable or irresistible, and it may also show that forces exist in this country which may well prove the basis for a constructive policy. "The real fact is that we want much more information on the whole subject. There are two inquiries going on at the present time. One is voluntary under Professor Carr Saunders, and the other under the Hegistrar-General, and they are closely co-operating."