THE STANDARD OF LIFE

Evening Post, Volume CXXIV, Issue 96, 20 October 1937, Page 9

THE STANDARD OF LIFE

(By Arthur Fraser.)

During the debate on the Financial Statement a Government member drew attention to an important facet of national life. He related public expenditure to population trends, and significantly inferred that the two trends were mutually opposed. The entire Financial Statement has the appearance, of having been framed on the prevalent supposition that there will continue to be an increase of population in the Dominion. The heavy expenditure on additional physical equipment and social services is apparently to be justified by an expanding population that will create the demand for these extended facilities. The present trends of population as revealed in the 1936 Census, if they do not flatly contradict the supposition, at least cast a grave doubt on its correctness. It was, appropriate that a Government member . should have been the first to draw the attention of the country to this alarming fact No party has been more insistent than the Labour Party in proclaiming that it stands for the protection and improvement of the standard of life in New Zealand. When the member for Kaiapoi turned the debate into this channel. • he struck at the very root of the most ■serious problem facing the Dominion Though he did not say so. Mr. C a/L Williams must have realised that the root:of- the whole problem of population is today the standard of life. There is nothing new about the problem of population. It has existed through thousands of years, probably since man first started to multiply But at different times it has manifested itself in different ways. At one period it was the problem of room, at another the problem of food. Today it is the problem of the standard of living, in volving both room and food, but including also the wider complexities of modern civilised life. The term "standard of living" js variously used. Statistically, by a comparison of the wage, cost of living, retail, and wholesale price index we arrive at an expression of the standard of life in a nation. But while this is a useful guide it is only a partial expression since it does not cover such items as political and religious liberty nor the amount of State aid afforded in different directions, which surely represent some part of the makeup of the standard of life". IMPROVEMENT IN PAST. Over the last two centuries a tremendous improvement has taken place in the: standard of life practically throughout the world.. This general rise in the' standard of living was largely, though not entirely, due to the economic revolutions brought about by the application of science to production' methods. An : ever-increas-ing volume of production was'accompanied by an ever-increasing population. But it is important to note that- the increase of population was not, as commonly supposed, due to any appreciable increase in the birth-rate It was'due. to the changes that took place in the death rate.; What appeared to be more children born to each family , was actually , merely a reduction in infantile' mortality resulting in more children surviving the first years of life. The lowering of the child mortality rates has allowed more people to survive to the reproductive ages and consequently to a general increase of population. At the same time the death-rate has been lowered by medical science so that people die later than before. New Zealand has reached a sandard of living which in comparison with standards elsewhere is relatively high. Indeed, for a country still comparatively young and undeveloped it is remarkably high. From the earliest years the people set out to obtain a high 'degree of comfort. They have been insistent .upon its maintenance. The ability;of the country to borrow money overseas in the past has permitted the rapid establishment of a physical and industrial equipment in excess of actual needs while still maintaining this , high standard of life. In other words, New Zealand has been able to live beyond the powers of her own financial resources and build up a productive equipment capable of [catering for a far greater.number of people than the present population in a ; remarkably short time.. A million and a half people are utilising capital equipment capable of maintaining the needs of several times that number. A million and a half people are also trying to i pay for the cost of that equipment, which, because it is not being used to its full economic capacity; is becoming a severe strain upon the finances.'of every family In the country. The alternative would have been to accept a -lower' standard of living and a. much slower, rate of development. This policy of-borrowing, in fact the whole policy of development, was essentially based upon the assumption that the populatiori : of the country would continue to increase for many years to come. So long as this assumption was founded on fact there was nothing at which to cavil. The cost of further capital equipment and social services would be borne by the greater number of people engaged : in the productive life of the Dominion. The fact that the physical and social structure .of the country was slightly ahead of the population was, if anythinig, an advantage rather than a disadvantage. THREAT TO, THE STANDARD. The altered circumstances of today are, however, constituting a serious threat to that standard. It is threatened by the internal situation, and it is threatened .by. the. external situation of population. It is well to remember 'that'a'standard of living can be threatened as equally by underi population as by over-population. Throughout the whole western world the entire basis of advance, the planning .of industrial production and distribution. the attainment of a greater measure of social services has been on the assumption of a continuous increase of population The businessman, politician, everyone in this Do'minion, is still founding his hopes and formulating his plans on the expectation of a larger population Yet if the present trends continue, and if the present restrictions on immigration are not lifted the population of New Zealand in 2037 will be something short of 200,000. In the two centuries, from 1700 to 1900, the population of European stock rose from some 175,000,000 to 580,000,000. During that period Europe was, also supplying hundreds of thousands of its numbers to the American continent and elsewhere. This extraordinary rate of~ increase could not continue indefinitely Today we can say with confidence that it is not doing so. From the beginning of the twentieth century there has been evidence of a considerable slowing up of the rate of increase, with one or two notable exceptions, in all countries of European race. The majority of those countries have either reached the stationary stage or are well within sight of it

CAN IT BE MAINTAINED?

NOT WITHOUT MORE POPULATION

The position in New Zealand is that ' the population is not replacing itself. ; The fall in the birth-rate has gone too far for that We cannot take courage from the recent slight increase in the number of babies born because while the total number may appear to be satisfactory it must be remembered that for some time now an exceptionally large proportion of the total population has been in the reproductive period of life. Thus when the number oi births is expressed as a percentage of the whole population we may be lulled into b false sense, of security but express the number of births as a • percentage of the families now in the reproductive period and something of a true picture is obtained. The plain fact is that the decline in the crude birth-rate, that is in the number, of children per thousand population must inevitably fall still lower. Even if all the families in New Zealand were immediately to become larger, which is extremely improbable, the decline would continue because ther is .going to be a smaller propoi> tion of families in the reproductive period arid an increasing proportion passing into the non-productive period. Moreover, because more people wUI be passing into the final section of life we cannot expect the death-rate to remain at its present low level A falling birth-rate and a rising death-rate are together going to bring about a sharp declivity in . the natural increase of population in the Dominion We have before us the imminent probability, first of these two rates moving in'to meet each other, and then the birthrate falling below the death-rate, which means depopulation It is becoming] difficult to maintain the standard of life even with the existing population; it will be impossible to maintain it if that population is permitted to decline. EFFECT OF DECLINE. Precisely the same thing as is happening in New Zealand is happening elsewhere. There is a general decline in Western population The effect of this is to attack the standard of life in the Dominion in several ways. First, a declining European population cannot mean anything but a diminishing market for the exports of this country. That in itself is serious Secondly, despite an actual tendency to decline European population- has. an appearance of overcrowding This is merely a temporary phase brought about very largely by the restrictions imposed on immigration by such nations as the United States,. Australia, Canada, and New Zealand- The effect of those restrictions is subtle -indeed. Apparent overcrowding in certain States of Europe has led to a policy of encouragement of substitute articles, and to agricultural self-sufficiency which has meant in the long .run a lowering of the standard of living in those States. It has'at the same time led 1 to an Imperialistic: twist being given to foreign policy. It has in all cases led to a curtailment of the volume of international trade. Against this there Is the significant truth that while population of European stock; is; definitely dwindling, the peoples of Asia are increasing In about -tM same that population of England .will be some four and a half million the population of Russia will have reached the 300,000,000 mark Japan will be m the vicinity of 100,000,000, and China will be the most populous nation upon the earth India will' have a population of something like 500,000,000. The total population ■of Europe will then be of such a size that it will be impossible ;to resist the pressure of Asiatic penetration. Europe and those parts of thee world now held by people of European stock are the most liberally supplied with, just those raw materials needed by, any Power with expansionary ideas. The strength' of European culture rests on the fact that the .European races have the control of -the best of the earth's iron, coal, oil, and other raw materials. . Our present knowledge of demography is lnsufficient to account for the decline -in Western population. When we have learnt something more about the science of population we may find that it is bound up with the unalterable laws. of Nature. We may find that we are paying the penalty of neglecting them. Today we are merely baffled by something that is going on before our eyes, and which we are apparently ' unable to -control. But we should perhaps remember that before the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries the population of the world was almost stationary, or at best increasing only at a very slow rate It is quite possible that we should look in the future to returning to some similar condition. Certainly it seems improbable that we will again experience the tremendous increase of those two remarkable centuries. THE ONLY HOPE. Amidst all this uncertainty, however, one thing is certain. This country is facing a severe decline in population in the immediate future. And it will not be possible to sustain the present standard of living with less people than there are now in the Dominion. Even an immediate improvement of the birth-rate will.not save the, situation. The only possible hope for the nation is to build up the population by outside aid, by immigration New Zealand cannot look-with equanimity on the possibility of oven a stationary population with only one million and a. half people. It is the imperative task of those who are in power both now and tomorrow to safeguard the standard of life enjoyed by the people of this country by ensuring that there is a sufficient population to meet all threats. If we are to expect a return to pre-seventeenth century population conditions, which is not improbable, ithen there should be enough people in the Dominion to maintain a population that will enable the full utilisation of the productive equipment and social services of this State without straining the family exchequer or mg a lower standard of life. There are people of assimilable stock in Europe ready and willing to come to New Zealand today, ready to take their place in the national life and become valuable citizens If we reject them now we may never have the -hance of obtaining them later on. Time and the downward tendency of Western population will remove what is now an available surplus for migration purposes To say that these newcomers will be the cause of greater unemployment is patently absurd, and a dangerous lingering of an old belief founded on the- tragical mistakes of unorganised and uncontrolled migration hi post-war years. To say that the immigrant will threaten the-wage level is ridiculous. There ,is legislative protection against such a threat. It woujd be an advantage to the State if those people who oppose immigration were to ponder jan the future of this country if the present trends of population are left to continue the way they are demonstrably going today.