BIRTH-RATE PROBLEM

Evening Post, Volume CXXIII, Issue 140, 15 June 1937, Page 12

BIRTH-RATE PROBLEM

EFFECT ON MARKETS

A BUSINESS POINT OF VIEW

"Evening Post," June 15,

The Investigational and Statistical ■ Branch of the Accounts Division of the Department of Agriculture—which, for short, may be called the I. and S.— has been giving considerable attention to the future population of Great Britain and Ireland, anr! its implications as a decreasing market. It is shown that the persistent downward rend of birth-rates is a phenomenon aoticeable in most, if not. all civilised countries and forms the subject ox much economic and sociological discussion. But what interests New Zealand so far as Great Britain is concerned is. the .effect/that, the falling, airth-rate will'i'have on ;the_ population, Taking the Government Statistician s returns of.. values ■of exports of New Zealand produce for 1936 it will be found that of the total value, £56 263.215, for all countries, shipments to the United Kingdom were valued at £45,365,823, leaving £10,897,392 to British Dominions and Drown Colonies and foreign countries. To countries not under the British flag ■he exports for the year were of the ■ralue of £7,715,562. These figures, ' :hen, show the importance of the marset of ,tlre United Kingdom for the practically free entry and disposal of the principal products of this Dominion. A MATTER OF TIME. How long will that British market be able to absorb New Zealand s exportable surplus products? That question has formed the subject of inquiry by the I. and S. Department. . Authorities quoted are Dr. Enid Charles, Brownlee, Honey,,, and- Griffiths,, and statistical data is given -to show the steady decline in-.population in the United Kingdom, with estimates of what that population may be in betwe* 30 and 40 years time, with a decrease of somewhere about 10,000,000. Today it 'is roughly 45,000,000; Honey's estimate for 19/1 is 38 492,000, and Dr. Charles's—for 1970—is 33,787,000. The maximum point of population will be reached, according to Dr, Charles, in 1940; thereafter the decline WThe ei. land S., taking the business view, concedes that "prophecies are notorious for their inaccuracy, but in this instance there seems to be every reason to regard them with some respect." ..,--. This anticipatd/decline, it is •shown, will raise many problems. ' Externally it will mean a decreased market for many countries, of which ' New Zealand will possibly become one of the most severely affected. • IF MARKETS DECLINE. , "The results of a decreasing market ' because of a smaller population may j work out under two conditions. First- . ly, if the market is controlled, foreign , Eroduce may be excluded, to the bene- ; t of Empire countries, but in this '■ connection must be remembered the big trade that. at present exists between the United Kingdom and other countries that supply goods competing with New Zealand.' Secondly, if the J market is not controlled and the pro- < duction of other countries continues as at present, competition may become increasingly, keen-which may result in ( more distant countries, as Australia 1 and New Zealand," seeking--markets nearer their ~• own, shores. Superimposed uponi these is the tendency for the United Kingdom to develop, her own agriculture. "It is probable that the market for imports would..decrease in a greater proportion: than the population would j decrease, because'of home'production. { Taking-the jneatygroup as an example , and assuming that important aspects [ do not vary, then7'for a 15' per cent. ' decrease in a population which- imports .■! about, two-fifths. :of;.its total require- .< ments,-'imports -will.have to decrease [ about ■ one-quarter. ; ; ;• / ■ /; FACING-THE;-FUTURE. • v "Failing an' expansion in other map ■ , kets, at least equal to any loss incurred in the United Kingdom, New ] Zealand would'have to look towards a change in her internal economy. It j would mean a new attitude^ towards j marketing-of primary products, rural j credits, development; and; control of the primary industries, -while the charac- j ter of: farming may revert .to a morr> f extensive form and ;. Jand. settlement t wane insignificance.. ( "The : problem.-. of' .finding -.■ a: :■ market may be'partially" offset by. a declining ■? population in. New Zealand." In :com- \ mon with many other countries, our \ birth-rate has been declining .consist- 1 ently;, since about 1380."." ■'.:-.

The Government Statistician's references to the decline in the rate of New Zealand's .^population .(as, set .out in the Year.Book): are emoted to: show that "New Zealand-is facing at only a.few years' distante a: Stationary and even a declining •■ ' ■'■-.: