A NEW LOCARNO

Evening Post, Volume CXXII, Issue 134, 3 December 1936, Page 11

A NEW LOCARNO

OBSTACLES GROWING

NEW DANGERS IN EUROPE

MUTUAL HATREDS

Some time this fall, or in the early winter; the Five-Power Conference will meet, probably in either London of Geneva, writes "Pertinax" in "Le Sok\" . Great ' Britain, France, Belgium, Italy, and Germany will be represented; and the main business of the conference will be to reconstruct, if possible, the Rhineland Pact of Locarno. This agreement, once hailed as a great power for European peace, was signed on October 16, 1925, by Briand, Stresemann, and Sir Austen Chamberlain; it went into the discard on March 7 last, when the German Reichswehr reoccupied the demilitarised Rhineland zone.

The meeting now proposed was initiated by Great Britain, France, : and Belgium on July 23, and willsuc- j cee'd or will fail according to the answer returned to the following question which, in effect, will be put for- . ward by the German representatives:^- . "Are you willing to mind your own business, to let us have a relatively ; free hand in Central and Eastern Europe—that is,' on and around the Danube, on the shores of the Baltic, and in Ukraine? If you answer in the affirmative, we shall pledge our country to respect for ever the French and Belgian frontiers. "But if France claims the right to come to the rescue of Czechoslovakia and Russia, should these nations be-r come embroiled in a conflict with Ger- : many; if Great Britain, as the guaran- : tor of the western treaty, should reserve her freedom to regard as lawful such an attack by France against her eastern . neighbour and to support it, then we much prefer to keep, clear from every commitment." [■' BOUNDLESS FAITH. Such is the problem—the only problem, as I see it. For years it has been obscured by a swarm of subsidiary issues. Whoever wishes to understand the development of the European conflict must be careful never to lose sight of it. Germany offers peace to Western Europe practically on the condition r that she be allowed to build up a formidable empire in the central and eastern part of the Continent. But such an expansion on Germany's part would place at her disposal an economic power and a man power automatically conferring an unchallengeable rule upon her. In the last analysis, she .requires from France and England an act of boundless faith. in tier .own peaceful intentions. ■ . . . . '. Up to now the European Powers great and small (except a few neutrals) have selected their associations ana their friendships and have directed their foreign policy according to their attitude towards this dominant question. The Powers which wish to safeguard the present territorial status quo have more or less banded themselves to promote the principle of the mdi'visibility of peace." Those which strive to overturn the treaties of 1919-1920 and to bring about new partitions of territory have adhered to the German theory of bilateral pacts ', or of the divisibility of peace. . • •- But now, as the outcome of-tneieiec-: toral victory of the Popular Front in France and of its social repercussions and; • still more, because of the turmoil in Spain, the group of Powers devoted to the maintenance of international peace risks being rent asunder. EVERYWHERE DISTRUST. The German and Italian dictators have been charged with interfering in the convulsions of Spain and lending assistance to the generals who revolted against the Spanish Government. Hitler and Mussolini have' loudly proclaimed through their controlled Press that they deserve the approval of all men who stand for social order against Communism. • ■ • • ' ■ . '- For a long time, it had been believed by many that the Russian revolution, had stabilised itself, .that .a. new society was gradually emerging _m Moscow, and that the propaganda for a universal upheaval had subsidedLast year the Franco-Soviet' treaty was signed upon that assumption, which was generally' ' entertained an Paris, and even in .London. Today, in view of what has occurred in Spain, that opinion is being revised by many. Vehement charges are once more being brought against Mo^ow. ■ - It has. been.feaueS that.Hitler and Mussolini might ttse Spain's tragedy to disturb the equilibrium in Jhe Mediterranean. It has been charged—and denied—that they wish to secure points of vantage for their fleets in the Balearic and Canary Islands. Warship / and aeroplane, bases on these islands would enable them to. disrupt the mantime communications of France with her African empire, both in the Atlantic and in the Mediterranean. Thus they could interfere with the mobilisation of the French Army, which cannot be put on a war footing without the addition of overseas forces. But throughput' ■ Western Europe, people who hate the revolutionary, spirit are ■ inclined to make light of those dangerous possibilities. For them the most important point is that revolution should not spread. , As to the rest, they are ready to take risks. WIIX IT COME TO GRIEF? To hold' Germany in check, France, after all, may succeed in gathering an impressive League of Peace. In London, on July 23, Mr. Eden agreed .to M. Blum's forceful -declaration that to divide Europe into two parts—one part sheltered against war by a new western treaty and the other deprived of every real guarantee against.aggression—would- be . tantamount to bringing a general conflict nearer. But if a fresh issue cuts ..across the first one—if it appears that resistance to pan-Germanism means jeopardising ■social order—the League of Peace bids fair to come to grief before it has attained any substantial form. In short, the.Spanish tragedy has supplied Germany with a very telling argument on the eve of-the Five-Power Conference.

However, only superficial observers *can take-the above dilemma seriously. It is a question whether Adolf Hitler nnd Benito Mussolini can correctly be considered tho pillars of the traditional social structure, the paragons of civilisation. Under them there is no more room for citizens, in the real sense of the word, than under the Soviets. The burial of the capitalist system proceeds in Berlin and in.Rome.as inexorably as it did in M05c0w..... On the international plane the.Fuhrer and the Duce axe the real revolutionaries. All their energy is directed towards pulling down, by violent means if necessary, existing frontier posts. They breed war—and, under present conditions, war means, internal revolution .following, in the wake of wholesale murder. A SURPRISING ATTITUDE. How, then, explain the prestige enjoyed by the German and Italian rulers in some conservative circles of Western Europe. Here is the answer: They embody the ideal of authoritative government—but they piit it to ill1 use.' The onlookers do not distinguish-be-tween the principle and'its application. This accounts for the surprising attitude of a good many men and women living in countries jyhich feel only, Joo

vividly the threat of the • German Reich.

Let us- consider the case of Yugoslavia. That State has become the close ally of Turkey, which is intimately bound,up with: Soviet Russia. Everyone knows that the Government of Ankara would not have guaranteed the territorial frontiers of Yugoslavia if Moscow had.not given encouragement. However, the Prince Regent and his Ministers—unlike King Alexander, who more than two/:years ago agreed with his two partners in the Little Entente to the principle:of official recognition of the Russian regime—have indefinitely postponed such amove.: Thus they have delayed and seriously jeopardised the formation of a Russian-Balkanic front 'of defence against Germany. Why? 'Because the Prince Regent and his family, unlike King Alexander, feel that the cause of social peace might suffer. CONSERVATIVE FACTORS. In Rumania, the energetic and farseeing Foreign Minister, Mr. Titulescu, has been frequently held in check by the same kind of feeling around him. In Prague, in London and in other capitals similar exhortations can be he,ard. In fact, in London the "Conservatives" ■■ who dream of an "anti-; Communist offensive" are legion. Even in my own country such feelings are occasionally, found. . '

These .views that the German Fuhrer stands for social order, as opposed to Communistic chaps, are not to be heard very often; nevertheless, they point to the existence, in the Conservative classes, of a frame of mind which Hitfer may succeed in turning to some, account. , .

In France, on the whole, such thoughts at present have no permanent weight. In England and elsewhere they are factors to -be reckoned with. When the Five-Power Conference meets, they will be mobilised. Meanwhile, let us hope that the popular front Government, in Paris will-not be foolish enough 'to raise the international issue, of Fascism versus antiFascism under any, form whatever..