MONGOL WAR LINE

Evening Post, Volume CXXI, Issue 137, 11 June 1936, Page 26

MONGOL WAR LINE

SET BY SOVIET DECREE JAPANESE HAVE REACHED IT TESTING PERIOD ENDS

Diplomatic sallies alternate with reconnoitoring raids on the Mongolian-Manchukuoan-Siberian borders, but both are designed to the same purpose. Each side is jockeying for position. The weapons of alliances and treaties jhave for the moment supplanted cav- [ airy, machine-guns, and aeroplanes, but the unofficial struggle goes on nevertheless, writes Nathaniel Peffer in the "San Francisco Chronicle." The normal protagonists in the struggle are Manchukuo and Mongolia, but it has long been evident that they are only pawns for Japan and Soviet Russia. In the last week or two it is the minor pieces that have been pushed forward, not so much in physical collision as in diplomatic manoeuvres. The events of the last few weeks in the turbulent no man's land of Eastern Asia, where three countries meet, can be interpreted as moves of preliminary finesse. Both sides have been feeling each other out. While it has long been taken for granted that Soviet Russia would go to war if Siberia were invaded by an alien force, there has been uncertainty as to whether the Soviet would construe invasion of Outer Mongolia with equal finality,. MOSCOW'S ANSWER. More particularly the Japanese have been uncertain, and if they were to continue their penetration into the Asiatic continent they had to find out. Now they know. The succession of apparently spontaneous minor battles on the Mongolian frontiers has met with increasing resistance until it has become unmistakably clear that Soviet Russia will fight to repel any incursion into Outer Mongolia. And, lest there be misunderstanding, Moscow formally gave notice that it would defend Outer Mongolia.

The notification was followed by the announcement of the conclusion of a "mutual assistance pact" in which Soviet Russia and Outer Mongolia i bound themselves to go to war in i case either was attacked by a third 'party. Simultaneously it was made j.known that a gentleman's agreement to that, effect had been in existence since 1934. All doubts were ended. Japan could either renounce hope of occupying Outer Mongolia or fight. Japan has countei-ed with its own alliance. Negotiations have been begun for common military action "against Communism" between the East Hopei Autonomous Council and Manchukuo. That council is the official signboard ot the wedge that Japan has driven into China.

The status of the North China provinces is confusing. The East Hopei Autonomous Council has jurisdiction over territory of uncertain area east of Peking. There is a Hopei-Chahar Political Council which has jurisdiction ovei the remainder of Hopei and all of Cbahar. Both bodes are fictitious devices to conceal the actual control that Japan already wields. ALREADY DETACHED. For practical purposes those two provinces have already been detached from China. Two other provinces originally designed to be included in the North China bloc under Japanese sway—Suiyuan and Shansi—are still semi-independent, neither in nor out of the jurisdiction of the Nanking Government, but the Japanese military representatives in China have given no sign of having abandoned their intention of incorporating them in their sphere. A fifth province, Shantung, is in a different category, since General Han Fu-chu, who is in control there, has a strong army which could interpose obstacles.

While thus far only East Hopei is officially contracting an alliance with Manchukuo," unofficially all of Hopei and Chahar can be considered as committed. The military help that all Hope! Province can offer to Japan is negligible, of course. For that matter, the military help of Outer Mongolia to Soviet Russia is not much greater. The significance of each alliance ta geographical and strategical. Hopei adjoins Inner Mongolia, where Japan is already established. Hopei and Chahar together give Japan a southern and eastern flank within the shortest striking distance of Urga (or Ulan Bator), the capital of Outer Mongolia. With Manchukuo, Inner Mongolia, and Hopei at Jape's command, pincers are formed which can close in on Outer Mongolia. THREAT TO SIBERIA. It is for the same reason that Soviet Russia has decided to stake everything on Outer Mongolia. Were that territory to fall into Japanese possession, half of Siberia would be at Japan's mercy. The old Trans-Siberian railway could be severed almost at will, Russia's whole position in Eastern Asia, perhaps in Middle Asia as well, would be destroyed, and the dream of a century ended.

In 1921 Moscow concluded a treaty with Outer Mongolia repudiating all) Tsarist treaties and recognising the "Mongolian People'? Government, which was in effect a group of Mongolian princes who had joined in ousting the Russian White Guards with the assistance of the Red army. In 1924, however, when Soviet Russia made a treaty with China in which China for the first time recognised the Soviet Government. Moscow formally acknowledged that Outer Mongolia was a part of the Chinese Republic. This is the treaty that China has just cited in its protest against the new Mongolian-Russian treaty. The Chinese protest is not taken very seriously, however, even by China. The Chinese are acting only for the record. They would probably feel more regret than the Russians if their protest were acted' on. Such hope as they still have that Japan's onward march can be arrested lies in the chance that Soviet Russia will be provoked into going to war against Japan. China, too, is playing its part in the diplomatic manoeuvres, but its role is perforce indeterminate. It dare not declare itself without giving Japan provocation for further punitive demands. CHINA IN PASSIVE ROLE. China must remain a passive agent. Agreements may give China the juridical sovereignty over Outer Mongolia, but it is a status the Mongols do not accept. With respect to Communism as a social and economic doctrine the Mongols may vacillate, but their links with Moscow as a political and military capital are firm. How directly Moscow's influence has been exercised and through what means has been conjectural, since Outer Mongolia has been virtually a closed area. The country is nominally a republic, with a structure of government roughly paralleling that in the other republics which are component parts of the Soviet Union. The Princes and Buddhist ecclesiastical nobles have either conformed or been dispossessed.

The fate of Outer Mongolia will be determined according to whether there is peace or war between Japan and Soviet Russia, and what the outcome

of the war is. But in either case Outer Mongolia's importance is derived rather than intrinsic. It is the key to command over North-eastern Asia. As Manchuria once served as a buffer between Japan and Russia, so Outer Mongolia might now serve. But the dynamic thrust of Japan is too powerful to be contained by a buffer. Either Japan must retreat or it must go forward