VOTING PROSPECTS

Evening Post, Volume CXX, Issue 116, 12 November 1935, Page 12

VOTING PROSPECTS

CANTERBURY SEATS

DULL ELECTION CAMPAIGN

SURVEY OF SITUATION (Special to tlio "Evening Post.") CHPJSTCHURCH, November 11. The election campaign in Christchurch up to the present has been rather duller than usual and though polling day is only about a fortnight oft' the public do not appear to be taking a particularly keen interest in the activities of tho candidates. There are two factors that may account for the lack of election excitement. One is that the four retiring Labour members, Messrs. H. T. Armstrong (Christchurch East), E. J. Howard (Christchurch South), D. G. Sullivan (Avon), and T. H. McCombs (Lyttelton) are so strongly entrenched that there is not the slightest possibility of their defeat, and their supporters are taking things quietly in consequence. The other factor is that this is Carnival Week in Christchurch, and for the time being more interest is being taken in the candidates atEiccartcn and Addington than the candidates on. the hustings-. But while the four retiring Labour members are considered to L"j safe the same cannot be said of the Government members for Kaiapci and Ri--cr.rton. In ths case of Christchurch Korth also the contest may be fairly open, though the mood of the electors is a little difficult to determine. Mil. FORBES FOU HTJEUNUI. The Prime Minister, Mr. Forbes, docs not appear to be in any danger in the widely-scattered Hurunui electorate which has remained faithful to him since 1903. ■ Four years ago Mr. Torbes secured a majority of 39.13 vctes in a straight-out contest with a Labour opponent. This year he is being opposed by two anti-Government candidates, Mr. D. C. Davie (Official Labour), who is a staunch Douglas Credit advocate, and Mr. O. Duff (Independent), whj is the proprietor and editor of a North'Csnterbury weekly newspaper which circulates widely in the electorate. Both Mr. Davie and Mr. Buff have been campaigning hard for some weeks and both will meet with a good measure of support, but Mr. Forbes has already made a hurried tour of the electorate and the enthusiastic receptions he has been given leave no doubt that he will still be member for Hurunui after November 27; It is probable, however, that he will have to be content with a reduced majority, though the fact that Messrs. Davie and Duff will divide the antiGovernment vote gives him a good start. CHANGE MKSLY IN KAIAPOI. One of the seats which the Government seems likely to loss is Kaiapoi which is held by Mr. R. W. Hawke, who was returned as a United Party supporter by a modest majority in 1923. Last election Mr. Hawke successfully defended his seat by a majority of 1414 votes in a straight-out fight against the Rev. J. K. Archer (Labour). This time there is a three-cornered contest, the Labour nominee being Mr. C. Morgan Williams, a farmer living in Kaiapoi, and Mr. A. A. McLachlan, who last election was an i.nendorsed Government candidate for Riccarton, is standing as a Liberal-Nationalist. Mr. McLachlan is unlikely to meet with strong support, but whatever votes he receives will be taken from the Government candidate, and Mr. Williams will receive a greater measure of support from the small farmers in ths electorate than wss given to Mr. Archer. On present indications Mr. Williams should have a comfortable win, and Mr. McLachlan should be a poor third. RETIREMENT OF ME. K. HOLLAND. The retirement of Mr. Henry Holland, who has represented Christchurch North for the past 10 years, makes the contest for that seat a matter for interesting speculation. His son, Mr. S. G. Holland, who is prominent in commercial affairs in the city, has been chosen as the Government candidate, and Labour has put forward Mr. R. M. Macfarlane, a young man who is secretary of the Labour Representation Committee. There is a third candidate, Mr. D. F. Dennehy, who styles h:ms:lf a Liberal-Democrat. The supporters of each of the three candidates are equally confident oi victory. Christchurch North is far from being a Labour electorate. In its composition it is rather like Wellington Suburbs, and Labour's best chances of success lie in a splitting of the nonLabour vote. Four years ago Mr. Henry Holland had a majority of 2077 votes in a Iriannular contest, but it must be admitted that he had a large personal following which was not attached to any political party. That personal vote may not all go to his son, who will also have to stand the brunt of the unpopularity cf the Government in certain Quarters. It would appear that thr; Government vote in this clectoiT.tc will decline and that the Labour vote will increase. The uncertain factor is the amount of support that Mr. Dennehy will receive. His supporters are confident that he will win many votes from the Government and some from Labour, but there is little to confirm that optimistic view. Christchurch North may provide one of the surprises of the election. BUI. IVIIJ3, HARD PRESSED. The next electorate that is worthy of attention is Riccarton. The sitting member is Mr. H. S. S. Kyle (Government), and he is opposed by Mr. F. G. Dunn (Democrat), Mr. G. T. Thurston (labour), and Mr. J. E. Colechin (Douglas Credit). Like Christchurch ITorth, the Riccarton electorate has nevc-r previously shown any disposition to adopt a-Labour candidate as its representative in Parliament. Eut this is rather an exceptional election, and the most surprising fact that has so far emerged has been the increased support given to the Labour candidate id his meetings in the farming sreo.-j. i'.lr. Kyle has seldom had enthusiastic meetings in tho urban portions of the electorate, but the "silent vote" has placed him at the top of tha poll at i::.-Sa cl'jc'ion since 1025, when he first v.-:j;i the Eoat. This year he is being iinrd-prcpEed by both Mr. Thurston and I-.::-. Di::-,.-:. who claim that they are ],:\vin,': splendid meetings. In 1j23. whim the United Party was in the boom, Mr. Kyle held the Riccsr:o:i t::it by a rnajoriiy oi only 45 votes ')Vir the' United candidate (Mr. A. A. ?.Tr.:L:ichlr.n), with tha Labour candir::.;:•'.' :i very poor third. Last election .'..V. K-;Lach!a-.i stood as an unofficial ■'>~Y::\:rncn!; candidate, and finished f ::.;/ ;"') vr/te.s behind Mr. Kyle, Mr. 7V.;r:-'o."!. l.ho Labour candidate, polling '.'.;■:,• u.'icr.-r'ain factor in the P.iccr.rton r-,;:- :t i:- ihe disposition this year of ' : ■■.'.•• :;. 'ihr.i- last election went to Mr. ''.' r..'■•■>.-Irn. r.lr. Dunn thinks he will '" !. i.1.iv.1: r,i them ar, well as a number -j\'r;i-i iho Government sida, and Mr. "'IJ: :.".J'.:' -'•!:■ o hopes to pull voles from :j-.'.':"% .-~''.'■:.• a in addition to holding his ; !■• vi'-jits iotr.1.. ■:■:■:.■ Kicct i-c-sirl;nt;sl area of Fcnr'":;: '"> ■■•-'"ovk!:-3 i>z kiy io the posi- j '•■'■ '-■ -7:' i.:.:. 'Curiii r';ivi^:-? tho anti- .•.:..-.•':"..• V''.'.;.r. :~i £:cnc!s:!.o:i Cr.irly even-I 'J '■'■'..■- :v'^-. I'ylo, and Ivlr. Thurston!

pulls up strongly in the farming portions of the electorate Mr. Thurston must have a chance. Mid-Canterbury. Mid-Canterbury is another interesting proposition and it may prove to be one of the electorates which returns a Democrat to. Parliament. The seat is at present vacant owing to the death of the Government member (Mr. J. Connolly) , and Mr. James Can', a prominent member of the Farmers' Union, who has a large following among the wheatgrowers, is the Government I nominee. The Mayor of Ashburton, Mr. W. H. Woods, who is an excellent campaigner, is the choice of the Demo- j crats, and Mr. H. E. Herring, engineering instructor ■> at the Ashburton Technical School, is the Labour candidate. This does not appear to be an electorate that is likely to choose a Labour representative, but there is a strong radical element, which on this occasion may decide to give its support to the Democrat. The campaign is well under way and all three candidates are having good meetings. Indications at the moment are that there may not be many votes separating Mr. Carr and Mr. Woods when the numbers are | posted. Other Electorates. As already stated there does not appear to be .any likelihood of changes taking place in the representation of the electorates in Christchurch which have returned Labour members in the past, and a summary of the situation can be reserved for the moment. In Temuka, Timaru, and Waitaki there are interesting contests •which will be dealt with later.

CENTENARY YEAR

DISCUSSION AT AUCKLAND AVOIDANCE OF CLASHES (By Telegraph—Press Association.) AUCKLAND, November 11. A widely representative conference, attended by over 260 delegates from local bodies, the churches, sporting and other bodies, was held in Auckland tonight to consider tentative plans for the celebration of the Auckland centenary in 1940. A report by the Mayor, Mr..Ernest Davis, outlined possible lines which such celebrations might take. Mr. Davis said he proposed to represent to the Government the need for coordination of all centennial celebrations throughout New Zealand so that by an equitable distribution of feature events and an orderly arrangement of date schedules visitors and New Zealanders would be able to attend all or any of the celebrations. Referring to a suggestion that Wellington should hold an international exhibition, Mr. Davis said he thought no one would challenge Wellington's claim to this feature. However, if the exhibition was to be held it would be most desirable from Auckland's point of view that it should be held in the -final quarter rather than at the beginning of 1940, as a magnificent climax to the national commemoration.

The conference was adjourned to March.