LOSING GROUND

Evening Post, Volume CXX, Issue 110, 5 November 1935, Page 10

LOSING GROUND

POPULATION OF N.Z,

ALARMING REPORT

FALLING BIRTH-RATE

I The Statistical Report on Population for the year 1934-35 summarises the considerable mass of statistical and tabular matter in a written introduction which contains statements which demand attention. "It is clear that the margin of (natural) increase is precariously low and will vanish in a few years if the present trend continues," states the report, which remarks, also, an excess of departures over immigrant arrivals in New Zealand. "The stage now reached in the movement of population is undoubtedly the I most momentous in the history of New I Zealand," states the. report. "From 1840 up to the present day every year has recorded an increase of population, fluctuating in degree, but still an increase. The note of unbroken growth, so long maintained, has been accepted as a matter of course, and the possibility of a stationary population—even a declining one—within the j immediate future will undoubtedly | present a serious shock to those who have not kept in touch with trends of population. "The experience of the past year may bo summed up briefly by saying that it continued on the same lines as its immediate predecessors. For the year ended March 31, 1935, the increase in population was 10.715, equal to 0.69 per cent, of the population at the beginning of the year. Exclusive of Maoris, the increase was 9020, or 0.61 per cent. The Maori population . . . is at present increasing more rapidly than the white population. These rates of increase are the lowest since 1890 and 1891." LOWEST OF A LONG DECLINE. After dealing with averages of natural increase and net migration increases since 1875 and during the postwar era, the report states that the natural increase ratio was formerly usually high in New Zealand, the annual average, for instance, reaching 29.41 per 1000 of mean population in the five-year period 1876-80. The 1934 figure of 7.99 per 1000, the lowest point yet reached in a long decline, spoke for itself. "The erstwhile favourable ratio of natural increase in New Zealand was due to its exceptionally low deathrate, now and for very many years the lowest in the world. It is out of the question to expect further considerable falls- in the death-rate; in fact, with the less favourable ageconstitution of the population as now developing, a potential rise must be envisaged. The birth-rate, which, for instance! averaged annually 41.21 per 1000 of mean population in 1876-80, has fallen to 18.80 in 1930, 18.42 in 1931, 17.09 in 1932, 16.59 in 1933, and 16.47 in 1934. "That the decline in the birth-rate over the last »four years is partly, even mainly, due to conditions caused by the depression and therefore, it may be assumed, temporary in nature, seems clear. It is equally clear, however, that depression conditions merely intensified a long-persisting decline. This decline is not peculiar to New Zealand, but is almost the universal experience, nor does it appear to have yet been successfully arrested by remedial measures attempted in a number of countries. "It has been noted above that the apparent natural increase ratio in' 1934 was 7.99 per 1000 of mean population, and such a figure may convey the erroneous impression that there is still a substantial margin of increase in population. This is not so. Based on expectation of life figures calculated for 1931, an 'equilibrium' birth-rate of over 15 per 1000 of mean population is required to maintain even a stationary population, and should the death-rate increase (as it has, for instance, in 1934 as compared with 1931) a higher birthrate would be necessary. It is clear that the margin of increase is precariously low and will vanish in a few years if the present trend continues. AGE-GROUPS. "Even without a change in the total population, a redistribution of the population in age-groups has exceedingly widespread consequences. Children under ten years of age, forming 19.92 per cent, of the population at the census of April 20, 1926, then numbered 267,227. At April 1, 1935, the number of children under ten years of age was estimated at 251,706, an actual decrease of 15,521, despite, the fact that the total population of all ages increased in the same period by 140,577.' "The second source of population increase, gain from migration, is of much less significance. The net migration figures, exclusive of Maoris, recorded a loss of population of 2983 for the March year, 1934-35, and of 2366 for the calendar year.. During each of the past four years economic conditions have occasioned a small exodus of population. This has occurred previously in 1888, 1890, and 1891 during a similar major depression."