A NEW WORLD

Evening Post, Volume CXVII, Issue 111, 12 May 1934, Page 13

A NEW WORLD

OWEN YOUNG'S VISION

THE FUTURE OF WORLD TRADE

LUXURIES WILL FALL

Mr., Owen D. Young, the author of the famous Young Plan in connection with, the German debt settlement, has written, a searching and striking article in tho ?'Queen's Quarterly," in which ho confesses that ho has changed some of the views he held in tho ninetcentwenties. Mr. Young writes:—

"It is an interesting thought that a compressed world, that quicker communication and transportation, do not necessarily lead-to greater intimacy or friendliness or understanding. I was born, on a farm in the hills of New York State. Our houses were widely separated. It was a real undertaking to visit your neighbour, but the people were intimate and friendly. Each, was interested in the other's affairs. "A new cooking utensil in the kitchen, new paper in tho front hall, or a new stove in the • sitting-room, were of the greatest consequence and interest to all the neighbourhood, to say nothing of the more serious things such as the size and "price of crops, tho marriage of children, tho controversies in the churches and in politics. Lifo and death, love and hate of the people within a radius of five miles were the major factors of that world in which I lived. "Now-I live in an apartment in New York. It may well be that I tlo not know even my neighbour who lives above mo or the one below me, or hint who has entry opposite mine on the same floor. My children may not know his. Life, death, sickness, all may take place without either of. us knowing. The congestion of a compressed world does not necessarily insure, or even promote, intimacy, interest, or understanding of one's neighbours. Possibly a new factor arises that with clpser contact one sets lip barriers for his individual protection. RAISING BARRIERS. "Perhaps we arc wrong in thinking that a compressed world breaks down barriers; Perhaps it raises them. Perhaps nations are protecting their individuality as persons db. ' Perhaps we have a new problem on our hands and a different Mud of one from what we thought we had by this very compression of the world. Mind you, I do not say we have; I only say perhaps we/have; and one cannot look upon great nations drawing back within themselves'without at least justifying such a question as I propound to yon. "It has been the vision of the Free Trader for a century that all kinds of goods would some day inovo freely and without barriers, and that gradually the place of cheapest production would determine the character of business of every country. It was apparently thought that some places wero a:s God-given for fabrication as others for production; that the fabrication of iron in Birmingham, of textiles in Manchester, was as set in the scheme of thing's as production of coffee in Brazil, of tobacco in Cuba, of tea in the Orient, or of wheat in Canada. "I. think we havo to revise our notions .about .these places of fabrication. Science aid its'machines, automatic and semi-automatic, which can be set iip and operated almost anywhere, which lessen tho need of great masses of skilled, labour, have largely impaired the'validity, of the idea that there is a God-given place of fabrication. The textile, on tput of Shanghai iti the last few months has demonstrated that tho looms of China can challenge the looms of England. ■ THREE LAYERS. ."For: my present purposes, all objects of trade may be' roughly divided into three fevers. At the bottom are raw materials. Immediately above and superimposed on them are manufactured necessities, and on top of the two are luxuries. My ■ belief is that the world trade of the fixture will take place principally in the bottom and the top\ layers, and that tho middle layer of manufactured necessities will diminish in. volume. ' "After all, raw materials have been spread thr&aghout the world unevenly, whether they be minerals in the ground or temperatures or rainfalls which control crops. Copper and petroleum, wheat and cotton; must ,movo. across political frontiers. Ho who has them to excess must sell; he who needs them must buy. Barriers to their movement cannot survive if the world is to maintain such a civilisation and standard of life as we know. "Hundreds of. other commodities, large and small in volume, but many of them vital to life and living, must be moved in tho trade of the world. So let us get it clearly in mind that no spirit of isolation, no political policy of isolation, no disturbance of peace even, can for a very long period or to a very large extent impair tho movements of the raw materials of the world. As consumption increases and domestic fabrication tries in each country to keep up with it, the business of international trade in raw materials will not only continue but will grow. "The extent to which there will be an international trade in luxuries depends upon the economic well-being of the world. In, the last analysis, it depends upon the development and refinement of taste pins tho power to buy. LtJXURY TO NECESSITY. . "Then, too, there is tho gradual transfer from tho third group of luxuries to the -first group of raw material necessities. Coffee, tea, fruit, tobacco, are being treated as necessities, but certainly are luxuries, and they can only be produced in those countries which Nature has provided for them. Thero is no substitute for tho cigars of Havana, or for certain wines of Franco. So wo shall see, I think, a great increase in international tradein tho field of raw material necessities, and particularly if tho world is prosperous, in that of luxuries. "As to the middle layer, I think each country will increasingly develop the manufacture of its own necessities. It will do so partly as a matter of national defence, that it may bo self-containerl. It will do so partly to employ its people and make them more produe-1 tive in their own interest. It will' do so partly because its own economy resulting frotn this machine age will bo improved. As. a consequence we must look, I think, for barriers to be set up against the importation of manu-' factored necessities as rapidly as each country can produce its own.

"If it be true that the world has become very small, if it be true that increased propinquity tends to generate a more intense spirit of nationalism, if it be true that fabricated necessities will move less, and less in tho world's trade, if it be true that materials, raw and semi-fabricated, and luxuries and semi-luxuries, uaulal and manufactured, are to occupy the major place in our international exchanges, then every nation will bo faced with the problem of gradually readjusting its domestic and international economy towards that

end. It will bo a slow process, and in many cases a slow, painful one, but its harshness may bo alleviated by careful planning in advance. COMMON INTEREST. "It will bo necessary, too, to enlargo the areas of common intorest between tho nations. Public health is a national asset. Anything which threatens it, wherever it be in the world, is a national enemy. All nations being interested, all will co-operate to stamp out disease, to control harmful drugs, and to relievo suffering. Scientific research and engineering applications aro an asset to every country and co-operation should bo widened and encouraged, and can be, because there will be loss competition in the world's markets in the fabricating field. "The interchange of students, the freedom of travel, the exchange of professors and of educational facilities should be enlarged. The movement of books and works of art for the purpose of developing and widening culture should bo encouraged. If this little world of ours must be dotted with compartments, each country seeking so far as possible to bo self-con-tained in material things, at least wo may keep the heavens abovo free for tho interchange of thpsc tilings which, after all, are the aims of an advancing civilisation."